I feel like I've written about this series 100 times. The reality, though, is that this is the 11th time I've written about LA vs. RSL, in some postseason permutation, since 2011.
There's just not a lot left to say. Either of these two teams is good enough to win the MLS Cup - you know that. One of these two teams will be knocked out on Sunday - you know that, too.
Here's what to expect from the second leg of these Western Conference semifinals on Sunday (5:30 pm ET; ESPN2, ESPN Deportes in the US | TSN2/RDS2 in Canada):
Re-establishing the rhythm
The Galaxy swear they're not in a slump, but it sure as hell feels like they're in a slump. RSL shut them out in Leg 1, and while a scoreless draw on the road isn't anything to really worry about, the fact is that this is the first time all year LA have been shut out in back-to-back games. Go ahead and worry about that, Galaxy fans. You're entitled.
They've offered precious little in the last 180 minutes. Neither Landon Donovan nor Robbie Keane created a chance in Utah, the first time that's happened all season, and, well, it's not necessarily their fault:
The one constant in the offseason is "if you win the central midfield, you'll probably win the game." RSL won that battle handily in Leg 1 as Javier Morales & Kyle Beckerman beat Marcelo Sarvas & Juninho into a pulp, and they did enough to, 9 times out of 10, win the game.
This, however, was the one time out of 10 that Jaime Penedo decided to rescue a result. He was perfect last week, giving his team a fighting chance while pushing a lousy October well into the rearview.
Now, it's easy to say "win the central midfield, duh." It's harder to say exactly how to do that.
Part of it will be Keane dropping a bit deeper to be a playmaker (like Fabian Espindola was vs. the Red Bulls), and the other part of it will be Donovan offering some off-the-ball penetration. LD's final third actions at Rio Tinto were brutal:
It's easy to forget, because he's old and because the game is often really compact these days, that Donovan is super fast. He has to make everybody remember, and put the fear of God into Tony Beltran and Nat Borchers. Make them reactive, make them scramble, and use that panic to pull the defense apart
It's Galaxy soccer. They'll win with it, or they'll lose without it. And that will be the last chapter in The Story of LD.
Tactical Outlook: A front-foot 4-4-2 with Keane dropping into the midfield in the left channel and both fullbacks overlapping.
X-factor:Alan Gordon off the bench. He changes the game.
Once more unto the breach
What's left to say about RSL? How about this: three of the four midfielders likely to start in this one played in the 2009 MLS Cup (Beckerman, Morales, Ned Grabavoy). Same with two of the four starting defenders (Borchers & Chris Wingert). Tony Beltran - who was a regular in 2009, but didn't play in the Cup - will be starting at right back.
And, of course, Nick Rimando will be starting in goal. He'll probably be starting in goal 20 years from now, too.
How do you beat this team? Well, they give you a ton of crosses, and rely on Borchers and Chris Schuler to defend in the air.
RSL will be stoked if that's how LA decide to play. They will be worried if there's a lot of this:
They have to make sure that when Keane gets the ball, he doesn't force the defense to backpedal. And they definitely have to make sure that Donovan doesn't get to use his speed around the edge.
They've done a bunch this season already. They've also done a good job of dragging LA's central defenders out of the middle, isolating them 1-v-1, and then creating danger. It hasn't always produced goals, but it's always, always always come close.
They need 90 more minutes of that. If they get it, they get themselves an invite into the Western Conference championship.
Tactical Outlook: Did you know this team plays a 4-4-2 diamond?
X-factor: RSL have become super-duper dangerous on set pieces. Jeff Cassar has stressed restarts, and it's paid.
X-factor Part II: Because of the away goals rule, RSL don't need to win this game. Any draw that's not 0-0 will see them through.
One more reason to watch: This could be Donovan's finale. If MLS lasts 1,000 years, there still won't be a player who has more of a say on our league's fortunes:
