On April 15, the LA Galaxy went to Houston and pounded the Dynamo into dust with a commanding 4-1 win, modestly outshooting the hosts by a 12-9 count.
Over their following 19 games against MLS teams, spanning just under four months, the Galaxy would outshoot their opponents only once, 16-6 over Seattle's reserves in a 4-2 US Open Cup win for LA. In the other 18 games LA lost the shot battle – one, to be fair, they may not have had all that much interest in winning. Sometimes it was by a narrow margin, as in June 22's scoreless draw vs. Colorado in which the Rapids outshot LA 14-12. Other times it was by, ahem, slightly more, as in June 2's scoreless home draw against Sporting KC in which the guests took 15 shots to the Galaxy's grand total of one.
During this stretch of games, which came to an end last weekend with a 1-1 draw against the Rapids as LA outshot Colorado 17-12, the Galaxy went 8-3-8. A point I've made before about this team: Things are fine. It's not great, but there's no crisis in LA, this team isn't doomed, and getting out-shot over one particular game, or over a month of games doesn't actually matter all that much.
I maintain, however, that getting out-shot by a significant margin will, on a long enough timeline, come to matter a lot. And that's the canary in the coalmine for the Galaxy that I referenced a month ago in this space. Eventually "things are fine" turns into this:
Back to that 19-game stretch: LA conceded 17.05 shots per game. The vast majority of those were low-quality shots, and many were when protecting a result. Bruce Arena's teams have traditionally been very good at limiting shot quality and protecting results, so... fine.
But 17 is still an incredible outlier, and getting acceptable results while allowing that many looks – even bad looks – is not sustainable. Jelle Van Damme and Ashley Cole have only so many goalline clearances in them, as Cole showed in the Galaxy's 2-1 loss to Dallas in the Open Cup semifinals. As the year wears on players will wear down and emergency defense becomes a less viable option.
As such: LA are 0-1-3 in their last four games, three of which were at the StubHub Center.
Here's what 17 shots conceded per game looks like in the context of what MLS teams have allowed over the past six years:
Outlier! Wild, crazy outlier! Perhaps this will become the new normal -- maybe Arena has figured out an entirely new way of winning soccer games. However, this kind of discrepancy wouldn't be model breaking just for MLS, but for soccer on a global stage. "Give up a lot of shots" is nobody's game plan, even when accounting for game states and shot quality.
Thus I am exercising my right to be completely skeptical of LA's record from mid-April through mid-August, and stand by my argument that they'll either have to change the way they've been playing or regress to the mean. Perhaps we saw the beginning of that last weekend against the Rapids.
There are a few mitigating circumstances here. First is the presence of Van Damme, who – as mentioned above – is the Pele of goalline clearances. There's also the fact that LA don't lose the expected goals battle as readily as they lose the shot battle (and expected goals is a better model than total shot ratio). This is because – again, as mentioned above – LA concede mostly low-percentage shots from bad attacking spots, while taking higher percentage shots themselves.
And the other advantage is intuitive: LA have international-caliber finishers in Robbie Keane, Gio Dos Santos, Gyasi Zardes and Mike Magee. So the Galaxy have a bit more wiggle room in terms of losing "underlying numbers" battles because they are so good at winning the battles right in front of the net, and as Arena has said, the only number that really matters is the scoreline. A team like Sporting or New England doesn't have that luxury; LA do, and they use it.
New York City FC alsohave that luxury, in the form of Messrs. David Villa and Frank Lampard. Even if you don't give them many looks, they can strangle you in your sleep. If you do give them many, many many looks -- if LA concede 17, or 20 or more shots to them when the two teams meet on Saturday (3 pm ET; ESPN in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada) -- it'll be a bloodbath.
It's "adapt or die" time for the Galaxy's 2016 season. Look at those above numbers again and you'll see there aren't a lot of big winners who gave up big numbers of shots. LA are walking a very, very fine line.
I suspect Arena knows it, even if he doesn't like hearing it all that much.
I'll also be watching:Marlon Hairston's speed and movement gave Cole fits last weekend. Jack Harrison isn't quite as clever off the ball as Hairston, but he's better 1-v-1 and has the same sort of athletic advantage. If he abuses Cole and pulls Van Damme a step or two over toward the touchline to help, that'll open up channels for Lampard to do his thing.
All We Ever Wanted
You can see from the video embedded at the top of the column that I'm a big fan of D.C.'s new acquisition, forward Patrick Mullins. I'm also a fan of Nick DeLeon, and of Luciano Acosta and Jared Jeffrey, and of Taylor Kemp and Steve Birnbaum, and – of course – of Bill Hamid. Plus I still think Julian Buescher is going to be awesome even if he's struggled just a bit with his transition to MLS play from college.
Those guys are all 23-to-26 years old. If United can keep them, they'll be the new core of a perennial playoff contender in the Eastern Conference for years to come.
All of the above is to say that United head coach Ben Olsen and his front office deserve a lot of credit for collecting complementary pieces in the prime of their respective careers, guys who can help D.C. transition from the previous era into another sustainably good (and maybe better than good, in time) next five years.
They've done this while stockpiling low-cost veterans like Marcelo Sarvas, Patrick Nyarko, Lloyd Sam, Sean Franklin, Bobby Boswell, Lamar Neagle and Alvaro Saborio, only one of whom is under 30 (Neagle turned 29 in May). Those guys still play crucial roles, and Sarvas is probably the single most important player on the team. But in terms of roster building on a budget, and the ability to transition from one era to the next with some semblance of grace, I don't think D.C. get enough credit.
The next step is this: They have to realize they're a high-pressure team just waiting to happen. United's best moments this season have come when they've played on the front foot, and their propensity for long balls robs them of the chance to suffocate opposition. This is axiomatic:
Mike was talking about the USMNT with that tweet, but it's applicable here, as well -- especially since it's the New York Red Bulls coming to town on Sunday (3 pm ET; ESPN in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada). RBNY area, in a lot of ways, the team that D.C. should aspire to be. Their pieces all fit together; they play a style that makes individuals not just better, but force magnifiers for one another; and they're absolutely clear on what their strengths and weaknesses are.
I'll also be watching:Sean Davis has gotten a lot of love, and he's deserved it. But RBNY without Dax McCarty are slower to win second balls in the midfield, which has become more and more of an issue when facing a United team that loves to transition directly off of turnovers. Keep an eye on Davis and see if he's playing like a No. 8 (which is what he is) or a No. 10 (which is what he seems to want to be from time to time).
If he's up the field being a No. 10, that'll leave much more room for Acosta and Jeffrey.
The Man With X-Ray Eyes
Seattle's attack has exploded with the addition of Nicolas Lodeiro, and all the usual descriptors apply to the Uruguayan No. 10. He's great receiving the ball and tough on it; his vision is superb; his work rate is off the charts for a playmaker, etc. etc. etc.
His best attribute is, however, his movement. Seattle have nominally been in a 4-2-3-1 over the past few weeks with Lodeiro inverted on the right wing, but look at this network passing graph from last weekend's 2-1 win over Real Salt Lake:
This is made using Opta data. Each circle represents the player's aggregate position, and the thickness of the lines connecting them is the number of passes traded back and forth. Everything Seattle's doing runs through Lodeiro.
Yes, he's No. 10, and yes, he's getting his aggregate touch right in the central channel despite the fact that he tends to start his movements from closer to the touchline. This is as true in transition as it is in possession; it's only in defense that Lodeiro spends the preponderance of his time on the wing.
I'm not sure how to game plan against this, because it's a vastly different look from most chance creators. In MLS, RBNY's Sacha Kljestan probably comes closest in terms of the inventiveness of his movement, but he actually works from the inside out, rather than outside in. And historically speaking, other guys who worked from outside in – Landon Donovan, Brad Davis – tended to have much lower usage rates (meaning they'd get less of the ball) than Lodeiro has had through 270 minutes.
It's a puzzle Caleb Porter has to solve for Sunday night's Cascadia Derby (9:30 pm ET; FS1 in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada). Telling Diego Chara or Ben Zemanski or Jack Jewsbury or Darlington Nagbe to shuttle out of central midfield and track Lodeiro wherever he goes – denying him the space to pick the types of through-balls that Seattle have feasted upon since his arrival – risks breaking Portland's overall shape. Having left back Vytautas Andriuškevičius step up to Lodeiro will leave space in the gutter along that touchline for overlaps, or for diagonal runs from the likes of Jordan Morris and Clint Dempsey.
I honestly have no idea what to expect.
I'll also be watching: When Portland are in possession, are they getting Fanendo Adi touches in and around the box? He's been excellent as a fulcrum and a chance creator, but the big man needs looks on goal.
One more thing:
All systems go, ready for launch.
Never film vertically, folks.
Happy weekending (don't worry, the dog was fine).
