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Let's start, once again, with a Pick 'Em recap:
- Home teams went 5-1-4 last week, and 2-0-1 on Wednesday, and have now won 78 of 152 games on the season -- 51.3%
- I chose two of eight games correctly last weekend, and two of three on Wednesday, putting me at 70-for-152 (46%)
- All four of my non-home-team-wins picks were losers
- Picking MLS games is hard, unless you just pick home team wins across the board
So with that preamble, here are my picks for this weekend:
- Seattle top NYCFC at CenturyLink
- New England take all three points at short-handed D.C.
- Philadelphia's attack keeps humming against Vancouver
- Columbus hold serve at home against RBNY
- Montreal counterattack Sporting to death at Stade Saputo
- Toronto FC get a road point at Orlando City
- FC Dallas win at home over RSL
- LA get a California Clasico point at San Jose
- Portland hand Wade Barrett his first loss as head coach of the Dynamo
I used a very sophisticated system of scouting and data analysis to make these choices.
Onto the games...
A Well Respected Man
Frank Lampard made his 2016 debut as a starter last weekend, and was a solid chunk of the reason that NYCFC came away with a 3-2 home victory over the visiting Union. It was just their second home win of the year, and necessary given that the Pigeons' current road success (3-2-1 so far) is probably unsustainable. There's usually, at best, two teams in the league who give .500 or better on the road each season, and I've had no luck talking myself into the possibility that 2016 could be NYCFC's year to join that particular club.
Nonetheless, NYCFC clearly hit on something for about 60 minutes last week. While Andrea Pirlo is mostly stationary and Andoni Iraola is mostly defensive, Lampard reprised something of his old Chelsea role -- dropping deep to receive the ball in tough spots, and shuttling it forward either on his own or in combination play with right winger Jack Harrison.
Lampard, while he was out there, was Iraola's main target, and almost always in the same spot. Here's a map of where the Spaniard connected with Lampard, courtesy of Opta:
It's pretty telling -- Lampard was dropping all the way into his own half, since Iraola is badly needed to stay deep and shield the backline.
Philly eventually solved this by shifting to a 4-1-4-1, with two attacking midfielders swamping that area and punishing NYCFC's lack of mobility in the central midfield. Perhaps Seattle should consider something similar with Erik Friberg and Andreas Ivanschitzon Saturday (5 pm ET; ESPN).
I'll also be watching: How hard will Seattle's left back (either Joevin Jones or Dylan Remick) overlap? Harrison has been a legitimate threat pushing forward on the NYCFC right wing every second he's been on the field as a pro thus far.
Strangers
San Jose and LA have already met twice this year, and will have their third dance in Saturday night's MLS Heineken Rivalry Edición Especial (10 pm ET; Univision). You'd think they would be familiar by now, but given the number of injury and international absences both teams have endured this season, I'm just not sure how much can be taken away from those first two games (a Galaxy win and then a draw, both in Carson).
It's almost easier to analyze the guys who won't be on the field -- Chris Wondolowski and probably Clarence Goodson for San Jose; Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes for LA.
Of that list it's probably Zardes who's the biggest game-shaper. His ability to occupy defenders and carve out chances for the rest of his team in myriad ways...
...hasn't really been replicated. In the six games he's started as a center forward this season, the Galaxy are 2-0-4 and haven't been shut out; in the nine games he hasn't, they're 3-3-3 and have been shut out five times, including the last three on the trot. Zardes is a frustrating player to lots of fans (and also, often, to Keane), but his presence at the top of the attack opens up profitable avenues that don't otherwise exist.
I'll also be watching: LA's central defense is still trying to sort itself out this season, and has a bad habit of allowing opposing center forwards to get touches deep in the box. When Quincy Amarikwa is allowed that kind of space he is very, very dangerous. Look for him to try to bait Jelle Van Damme into rash challenges.
Sunday Afternoon
This is a helpful visualization of how teams across MLS play. The further your bubble is up the vertical axis, the higher the shot quality you concede is. The further you are along the horizontal access, the more final third passes your defense allows (or "encourages", if you want to frame it that way) per shot. And the size of the bubble indicates the number of total shots allowed per match:
And there you have the Portland Timbers in a nutshell. They're totally content to allow a ton of shots, but do a better job of limiting shot quality than anybody else in the league. The idea is that if you intend to score against them, it's probably going to have to come on a belter.
It was a good plan late last season, and in part was the catalyst for their run to MLS Cup. So far this season, however, the Timbers have posted just one shutout (over a Wondo-less Quakes) and have conceded multiple goals in nine of their 16 outings. Their defensive plan has been poked full of holes, and Caleb Porter has tried to address it by pulling his defense a little further up the field and re-emphasizing, to an extent, possession.
The new-look and better-organized Dynamo visit on Sunday (6 pm ET; ESPN2) and it's tough to tell what kind of challenge they'll present, exactly. Andrew Wenger has the speed to get through a defense that pulls up high, but struggles to finish; Will Bruin thrives on chaos in and around the area, but his hold-up play is still lacking; Boniek Garcia is clever and inventive in attack, but his final touch can come and go.
None of these guys are all that reliable in terms of which version will show up, so it's hard to know which fires the Timbers will need to put out.
I'll also be watching: Collen Warner's positioning. So far he's done an admirable job of plugging the hole in front of the Houston back line, but he hasn't had to face a No. 10 quite like Diego Valeri as of yet. Watch for Valeri to try to draw Warner out of that spot and open up a gap in Zone 14 for the rest of the Timbers to attack.
One more thing:
View post on imgur.com
Measure twice, cut once.
Happy weekending, everybody.
