Predicting what Jurgen Klinsmann is going to do is not easy, so consider this column officially a fool's errand. Which I guess makes me the right man for the job.
In the space below, I'm going to take a shot at predicting the USMNT's 23-man roster for this summer's CONCACAF Gold Cup, which kicks off on July 7. Klinsmann's preferences are hard to pin down in these situations, since he's ruthless about cutting guys who don't fit his plan, and since said plan can fairly be described as "ever-changing." Add in the fact that he has a well-known tendency to ignore the need for suitable backups at crucial spots (Jozy!), and what you're about to read is basically me throwing darts.
With that preamble, here are a trio of ground rules:
- I'm going to assume Jurgen learned his lesson from last summer and will bring adequate backups all over the field
- I'm going to assume the de facto formation is a 4-1-3-2, though that does not mean it's the only formation the US will play
- I'm going to be making the picks I think Jurgen will make, not the ones I'd make
So here we go:
Goalkeepers: Brad Guzan (Aston Villa), Nick Rimando (RSL), William Yarbrough (Club León)
Klinsmann's killed any suspense by naming Guzan his No. 1 already, and Rimando – who hasn't been at his best this year, to be perfectly honest – still looks like he's the preferred No. 2. There is something to be said for having a veteran backup, and Rimando is past 400 professional games in all competitions.
That leaves the battle for the third spot, which I think comes down to Yarbrough vs. D.C. United's Bill Hamid. On form, Hamid should be challenging Guzan for the starting job. He's been immense for the past 24 months and is immense when coming off the line to cut down shooting angles:
Hamid is huge, and he plays huge, and that's why he won Goalkeeper of the Year last season.
But Yarbrough's no scrub. He backstopped Club León to back-to-back Liga MX crowns in 2013-14, has played in a bunch of hostile environments across the continent and has looked just fine in his two US appearances thus far.
Add in the fact that Liga MX will be on summer break while D.C. will be in the middle of their season, and I think Yarbrough gets the nod.
Left Backs: Fabian Johnson (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Brek Shea (Orlando City)
Johnson is listed as a midfielder on the latest roster for the friendlies at the Netherlands (Friday, 2 pm ET; ESPN2, WatchESPN, UniMás, UDN) and then at Germany (June 10, 2:45 pm ET; FOX Sports 1, UniMás, UDN). I don't know whether or not to believe that appellation, since he's been merely "good" when in midfield for the US, as opposed to "absolutely devastating," which is his usual setting when playing fullback.
Remember THIS? I'm going to assume we want more of that, which makes Johnson a fullback.
The other spot goes to Shea, who's been learning the job on the fly for Orlando and has done better than I'd expected. His defensive ability, both on and off the ball, is still raw, but largely effective. On the ball, he's still capable of stuff like this:
That leaves Club Tijuana's Greg Garza as the last man out. According to ESPN's Doug McIntyre, he's missing the current camp to rest a minor injury, but beyond that, Garza has been beaten for pace fairly regularly for the US in his seven caps.
Right Backs: DeAndre Yedlin (Tottenham Hotspur), Timothy Chandler (Eintracht Frankfurt)
I don't think there's much question that these are the two guys that Klinsmann rates highest in the right-back pool, though both have struggled pretty consistently with the timing and aggression of their overlaps in Red, White & Blue. Yedlin in particular often looks much more like a winger (which is where he played, primarily, last summer) than a fullback.
The only real "stay-at-home" option who appears to be on Klinsmann's radar is Brad Evans, who is in the current camp and is playing full-time in central defense for the Sounders. There is also the possibility of Geoff Cameron reprising his Stoke City role at this spot, though it seems remote.
Center Backs: Ventura Alvarado (Club América), Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy), John Brooks (Hertha Berlin), Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City)
Klinsmann specifically mentioned Alvarado's rise in the Q&A about this latest roster, and no one can seriously argue against including a guy who starts for the best club team in CONCACAF. Gonzalez and Brooks, meanwhile, are both playing the best soccer of their lives, and are both World Cup veterans.
Besler is a trickier one to predict. He's only just started to look like the same guy he was before the World Cup in terms of lateral movement and strength in the challenge, and there was some obvious friction between him and Klinsmann following January camp.
Still though … he was the best US defender last summer, he reads the game better than anyone else in the pool and over the last four weeks, he's looked really, really good again. I'm giving him the nod over Cameron, Evans and Michael Orozco – though if one of those guys claims the spot instead, don't be too shocked, especially since each brings an extra dose of versatility (right back) to the table.
Defensive Midfielders: Danny Williams (Reading), Perry Kitchen (D.C. United)
Yeah, I'm calling this one as the shocker: Kyle Beckerman gets left out. Like I said, Klinsmann is ruthless.
Klinsmann also values size, speed and physicality, as does top advisor Berti Vogts. Beckerman can still run all day – just not as fast as Williams, who had a strong year in the English Championship after shaking off some injuries, or Kitchen, who has probably been the league's best defensive midfielder thus far in 2015.
Kitchen talked about his USMNT role last month on ExtraTime Radio (clip starts at the 10:30 mark), specifically referencing the fact that the staff want him to be a pure No. 6 like Beckerman:
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I fully admit that I may be jumping the gun on this particular roster shuffle, but "Kitchen for Beckerman" is going to happen sooner or later.
Central Midfielders:Michael Bradley (Toronto FC), Gedion Zelalem (Arsenal)
Boom goes the dynamite.
Bradley's inclusion is self-explanatory, as he's dominating central midfield for TFC these days and averages an assist per game for the USMNT when playing in the 4-1-3-2 (or 4-4-2 diamond, depending upon what you want to call it). His ability to open the game up with either foot is so, so underappreciated. Clicky!
Zelalem's presence is a little more complicated, given that you can't really argue he's the second-best central midfielder in the pool right now. His passivity on the ball in killer spots and his lack of a left foot are things that will be scouted by teams better than the New Zealand U-20s.
Watch Rubio Rubin make a killer run, then go half-Keane when Zelalem doesn't hit him:
I have fourmoreclips of Zelalem being too passive, or just not seeing the run. You want to know why he's still a youth-team player for Arsenal? There you go.
Even so … Zelalem is a ridiculously good prospect – better than Bradley when Bradley was 18; better than Emerson Hyndman, who I'm very high on; better than Luis Gil, who was the No. 10 for the last U-20 group. Gun to head, I'll say he's the most promising central midfield prospectthe US has produced since Claudio Reyna, and like Reyna, it's his ability to receive and retain the ball in traffic that makes him stand out.
He still needs to be cap-tied, and we have every reason to suspect Klinsmann won't mind burning a roster spot on a kid who looks very much like The FutureTM, provided there's a lifetime commitment involved.
Giving the nod to Zelalem is made easier for Klinsmann by the fact that Jermaine Jones seems pretty badly injured. A healthy Jones is a lock for this roster, but it doesn't look like he'll be available – though if he is, remember that roster adjustments can be made after the group stage. Don't rule out the possibility of Zelalem getting cap-tied early, then sent home for the knockout rounds as a veteran is brought in to replace him.
Besides Jones, other guys in the mix here are Joe Corona, maaaaybe Hyndman, maaaaaaaaybe Lee Nguyen and probably not Benny Feilhaber (who should be there).
Also, the on-field resemblance between Zelalem and Feilhaber is uncanny, right down to their respective one-footedness.
Wide Midfielders: Alejandro Bedoya (Nantes), Mix Diskerud (New York City FC), Alfredo Morales (Ingolstadt 04)
Bedoya was identified by Klinsmann as one of the team's core players, and given his play for club and country, there's no reason to think that's a mistake. Watch any game with a critical eye, and you'll notice that he's always open, always available, which is maybe the most crucial role for wide midfielders (or "shuttlers," as they're called in the current parlance) in the 4-1-3-2.
Diskerud doesn't have as strong a case, given his struggles for NYCFC, but he's been a consistent contributor for the national team.
That leaves the last spot for Morales, which is a choice I like since I think Morales is really good, and don't like since none of the three have game-breaking speed or "get forward!" instincts. The US attack is basically the soccer equivalent of a Dyson Sphere built around Bradley, and in order to harness all that energy, the US needs multiple runners to pick out from multiple angles, as opposed to simply aiming for one forward or another.
If Klinsmann wants a pure attacker at one of these spots, then it's probably either Miguel Ibarra or Julian Green, though he hasn't proven entirely enamored with either. Ibarra keeps getting call-ups but not a ton of minutes, while Green just shook off the rust with the U-23s in Toulon.
There is also Graham Zusi, who – like his club teammate Besler – is finally rounding back into form after a long and exhausting 2014. There's Corona, and maybe even Jones, who played as a shuttler last summer in Brazil.
Mitigating factor with regard to these spots: Johnson, Shea and Yedlin can all play in midfield, and all have done so for Klinsmann. Their versatility in that regard can lead to some easier choices here.
Forwards:Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders), Aron Jóhannsson (AZ Alkmaar), Juan Agudelo (New England Revolution), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes), Jordan Morris (Stanford)
In the interest of full disclosure: I completely expect Jozy Altidore to be available for the knockout rounds, and maybe even before. If he's available, one of the guys above won't be coming along.
You're all nodding and saying, "Yeah, Jordan Morris." But I'm not with that. I think Morris is on the verge of being an "every camp" type of call-up for Klinsmann, and there is no question that he was the outstanding contributor to the U-23s in Toulon. This is scintillating:
Remember how I talked about Klinsmann valuing speed? Well there you go. That first touch is great, and then he rides eternal through the gates of Valhalla, shiny and chrome.
Dempsey, despite missing this current camp, is a lock. I think Jóhannsson is as well, given his strong play for AZ down the stretch.
Wondo, who Klinsmann praises at every turn and is the highest-scoring Yank in MLS, is probably close to a lock, though I was suprised he wasn't part of this week's Euro trip.
Which means the last spot is Juan Agudelo vs. the World. Based on talent and versatility (he's lined up everywhere in the attack already this year for New England), Agudelo should be able to nail down the final forward spot ahead of the likes of Gyasi Zardes, Bobby Wood and Rubio Rubin.
So my quiver is empty, my darts now thrown. We know what we are, but know not what we may be.
