The international break – an action-packed one – is over, and now it is time for the Audi 2016 MLS Cup Playoffs to try to recapture the momentum that it had built through the Knockout Round and Conference Semifinals.
So here we are, heading into the respective Conference Championships. Four teams, two countries, and one MLS Cup staring them all directly in the eye.
We ride eternal, shiny and chrome. I'm excited.
Montreal Impact vs. Toronto FC
Tuesday night's opener (8 pm ET; ESPN in the US | TSN1, TSN3 & RDS in Canada) is both the Eastern Conference Championship and a long-standing grudge match that goes beyond soccer and beyond sports. Montreal and Toronto have been at each other's throats for just about two centuries, and that's not going to change any time soon.
What's also not going to change? The formations and approaches of these two teams. Both the Impact and Reds endured a fair share of hardships and handled a double-handful of speed bumps and hurdles to get where they are, and "Hey, let's ruin this!" is probably not entering the minds of either Mauro Biello or Greg Vanney.
So for the hosts it'll be a low-block 4-3-3 with the veteran central midfield and the fleet-footed frontline built to counter. This is very much who the Impact are and it's probably who they should have been from Day 1 of this year.
For TFC... from a certain point of view you can argue the 3-5-2 was an adjustment Vanney made for a couple of specific opponents, and now that A) they've moved on to a new hunt; and B) the shock value of a relatively new formation has been processed around the league; and C) there's a lot of film for Montreal to watch, that it'd be prudent to switch back to the 4-4-2 they spent much of the season playing.
But nah. The Reds might press a little less than they did against NYCFC, but they'll still be largely the same team they were two weekends ago.
The Shape of the Game:Montreal sit in a three-quarters bunker and try to break
The Impact have the personnel to be very organized and tough to break down, as they showed against the New York Red Bulls in the semifinals. They don't come out directly into midfield and try to beat you to 50/50 balls, but rather sit a little deeper and coax turnovers that can then turn into open-field sprints in the other direction.
Lots of teams have fallen into this trap:
I didn't choose that clip at random. The Reds have been vulnerable to Montreal's counters all season long.
But the Reds are also a different team than they were last month when these two sides met. They switched to the 3-5-2 after that game (a 2-2 draw in Montreal), and have mostly been tighter along the backline. The biggest defensive advantage has been their ability to get help to wingbacks Justin Morrow and Steven Beitashour, which has meant less 1v1 defending.
That will be crucial against Ignacio Piatti in particular. He's already screwed Beitashour into the ground twice this year, and Toronto will want to prevent the hat trick.
The biggest attacking upside? That's come from their smothering high pressure, which has forced each of their last three opponents into a defensive shell. This is why the concept of a "three-quarters bunker" is so important to Montreal – if they full-on park the bus, TFC will manhandle them by throwing extra numbers into the box, and the Impact aren't equipped to deal with that.
PROBABLE LINEUPS
Montreal (4-3-3): Evan Bush; Hassoun Camara, Victor Cabrera, Laurent Ciman, Ambroise Oyongo; Hernan Bernardello, Marco Donadel, Patrice Bernier; Dominic Oduro, Matteo Mancosu, Piatti
Toronto (3-5-2): Clint Irwin; Eriq Zavaleta, Drew Moor, Nick Hagglund; Beitashour, Armando Cooper, Michael Bradley, Jonathan Osorio, Morrow; Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore
What's it all mean?
Everybody expected TFC to be cagey and cautious against NYCFC, but they really were the exact opposite of that. The Reds were damn certain they were going to grab the game by the scruff and control the tempo and tenor of the game, and they did exactly that. NYCFC, of course, melted down in spectacular fashion.
Montreal will probably just shrug their shoulders at that kind of onslaught, which is exactly what they did against RBNY last round. New York had the better of the play and created the better chances, and almost certainly should have put more than one away. But Evan Bush was heroic and the Impact attack was opportunistic and the midfield trio simply never got rattled.
"Play your kids" is great and I wish more teams would do it, but the Impact have made a compelling argument that November is a good time to "Play your olds." That includes the potential game-changer that is super-sub Didier Drogba.
The difference, though? New York didn't have Giovinco, and they didn't have Altidore. That's the league's best forward combination, and if the Reds get an away goal or two, the Impact will have to come out of their shell.
Seattle Sounders vs. Colorado Rapids
There is no rivalry to the nightcap (10 pm ET; FS1 in the US | TSN1, TSN3 & RDS2 in Canada), but there is plenty of mystery built largely around the health status of key players.
Jordan Morris limped out of Seattle's last game at halftime with a hamstring issue, and hamstring issues don't magically heal in two weeks. Shkelzen Gashi was the hero for Colorado against LA, and then he was stretchered off the field. We know Clint Dempsey won't be playing for the Sounders, and we know that Tim Howard will not be able to play for the Rapids.
Goal machine Nelson Valdez had to be subbed out for Seattle against Dallas, and Jermaine Jones is coming off 161 tough minutes for the US national team. Both guys will probably be fine to go, and yet it's 100 percent fair to question just how close to full strength they are.
The Shape of the Game: Lodeiro and set pieces
A good rule of thumb in the playoffs is "bet on the team that has the best player on the field," and the best player on the field is going to be Nicolas Lodeiro. Full stop.
Seattle will run everything they do through him, and that will surprise precisely no one. The only real question is whether Brian Schmetzer will tinker a bit and have the Uruguayan maestro line up on the flank – a look that's paid dividends multiple times in the last few months – rather than directly underneath a center forward. To my eye this has made Lodeiro tougher to track, and the Sounders' attack less predictable.
Wherever they line him up, though, the Rapids are going to Rapid: 4-2-3-1 in a low block, with speedy wingers and tons of protection for the central defense. My guess is that it will be Sam Cronin and Micheal Azira shielding the backline with Jones shifted in further forward as a No. 10/destroyer of worlds (and aren't we all looking forward to the first tussle between him and Ozzie Alonso?), but there's the off chance that Pablo Mastroeni will decide to play Kevin Doyle as a No. 10 again.
I kind of doubt it, though. Expect Colorado to try to break the game, and then look for opportunities to shoot wingers into space behind the overlapping Seattle fullbacks.
PROBABLE LINEUPS
Seattle (4-2-3-1): Stefan Frei; Tyrone Mears, Roman Torres, Chad Marshall, Joevin Jones; Alonso, Cristian Roldan; Lodeiro, Erik Friberg, Morris; Valdez
Colorado (4-2-3-1): Zac MacMath; Eric Miller, Jared Watts, Axel Sjoberg, Marc Burch; Azira, Cronin; Marlon Hairston, Jones, Sebastien Le Toux; Doyle
What's it all mean?
I wrote "set pieces" above and then didn't expand on it, so let me give it a shot here: Both of these teams will hurt you bad on restarts, and the Rapids have to be extremely wary of sitting too deep and inviting the Sounders forward. Seattle will draw a ton of fouls in those situations, and when you have Lodeiro feeding the likes of Marshall, Torres and Valdez (!!!), those turn into goals.
That's particularly troubling with Howard out. I'm a big fan of Zac MacMath as a shot-stopper and his decision-making has generally been good, but he's never had a great command of his box.
Putting him under constant pressure there means more defensive help will be necessary from the wingers – got to close down those crossing lanes, right? – and that in turn means Doyle stranded all by himself on an island. Dominique Badji is a potential off-the-bench game-changer in that circumstance, but no matter the lineup Colorado put out, the Sounders have to like their chances to get the job done at home.
