Tactical Look: Can Lions or lmpact take advantage of struggling defenses?

Tactical Look is an in-depth examination of what occurs on the field in MLS, either previewing an upcoming match, or reviewing a game that has already been played.
The phrase "tactical analysis" has a myriad of connotations in the world’s game, and I would prefer to think of these pieces as a "contextual analysis." I am hoping to share my observations about the systems and players of MLS so that others might have more to look out for when they are watching league action.

Orlando City SC and the Montreal Impact face off in Florida on Sunday afternoon (1 pm ET; ESPN in US | MLS LIVE in Canada) having both played Wednesday night in Canada. Both squads are finishing the year performing at a lower level than the fanbases might have expected. Orlando can’t afford to drop points again (and will need help) if they are to get above the red line. Montreal’s 3-1 win against the San Jose Earthquakes gives the Impact hope that they can re-establish some positivity before the postseason. The weekend game is vital for both objectives.

Higuita's importance in Orlando lineup

Orlando went to Toronto on the back of conceding four goals in three straight games. Head coach Jason Kreis changed what had been a consistent 4-2-3-1 system to a diamond midfield with two forwards, and then changed back 40 minutes into the first half. Cristian Higuita entered the game and immediately gave Orlando a better balance in midfield. When the Lions had Carlos Rivas, Cyle Larin, Kaká, Kevin Molino and Brek Shea on the field at the same time, it was too easy for Toronto to get to the heart of their defense. Check out Michael Bradley beating the entire Orlando midfield in one run before Higuita is introduced to the game.

Compare this with Higuita stopping the ball twice and then getting physical to disrupt an attacking run all in one instant of transition defense, and you can see why he is essential to OCSC.

Orlando have conceded .6 less goals per 90 minutes when Higuita is on the field as opposed to when he has not been. His entrance on Wednesday helped Orlando earn a 0-0 draw. His return to health is likely to continue with a start next to Servando Carrasco this weekend. Elsewhere, Shea’s suspension means Larin will probably be alone up top ahead of Matias Perez Garcia, Kaká and Molino. The back four is likely to remain the same.

Will Drogba start?

There is a bit of mystery surrounding how Montreal will line up in attack on Sunday. Didier Drogba was omitted from the starting lineup on Wednesday night, so he should be fresh to face Orlando. Still, he has been reluctant to play on turf in the past, and Matteo Mancosu has been superb in his appearances, notching three goals and four assists in 605 minutes.

However, Drogba is still a big-time player and if I had to bet, I would expect him to line up at the point in a 4-2-3-1 with Harry Shipp behind him, Dominic Oduro on the right and Ignacio Piatti on the left.

Further back, Mauro Biello will have Hernan Bernadello returning from suspension, and Victor Cabrera missing due to yellow card accumulation. Montreal have conceded 1.4 goals per game when Cabrera starts and 1.8 goals per game when he has not, so they are in a tough spot with their center backs.

As Orlando drops deep, Montreal can take advantage

Regardless of who is playing in front of them and how they line up, the Orlando back four has issues that Montreal should be able to attack. When we talk about set pieces, goal kicks are rarely brought up, but they might be important this weekend. Look at how Orlando defends a long Toronto goal kick from Wednesday.

One defender challenges, and three drop off, which is typical in soccer. However, the depth the other three give provides a lot of space for Toronto to operate in.

Evan Bush has completed the third most passes of any goalkeeper in MLS since the start of the 2015 season, we can imagine him connecting with Drogba, whose strength should give a platform to link with Piatti, and an elite MLS attacking player will have room to attack an exposed defense.

This issue of too much depth in support also played out in the run of play on Wednesday.

If Montreal can manipulate the Orlando backline in a similar manner, Piatti should be able to find space between the lines. Jose Aja and David Mateos especially were pulled apart with too much ease for a center back duo, and Piatti’s goal on Wednesday night illustrates what he can do when that happens.

Finally, the Lions gave up an awful lot of free kicks on the right side of their defense against Toronto. While some of these fouls were a consequence of their false start with the diamond midfield, Montreal is particularly strong with Piatti and Ambroise Oyongo down their left. No player has scored more free kick goals than Drogba since his MLS debut. OCSC, who have been weak defending set plays this year, will not want to give him or the Impact this many opportunities:

Orlando can pounce on "broken" team

The Impact have conceded three-plus goals four times in their last nine MLS matches. There is talent all over the field, and it is often easy to accuse a team of not working hard enough in these circumstances. However, in this case it appears to be slightly more complicated than that.

Drogba, Piatti and co. appear to be willing to put effort into the defensive phase, but the team does not always maintain a compact shape as a whole. Against San Jose, the front players aggressively pressthe ball all the way back to David Bingham, but the back line does not follow up.

This is sometimes called having a "broken team" where the front and back lines appear to almost be executing two different defensive concepts. The result is that Montreal’s midfield pivots, who are not the most athletic to begin with, are left alone in space and soon the backline is facing a numbers-down situation.

Against Toronto, Orlando was more than willing to play through the first wave of TFC pressure before attempting to find Kaká and Molino in front of the Toronto back four. If they can get on the ball and facing the Montreal defenders, it could be a long afternoon for the Impact.

For different reasons, both teams enter Sunday’s game with issues on their backlines. Whichever coach does a better job of solving them will likely finish happier on Sunday. We could be in for a late-season shootout.