There's still more than a month left in the MLS regular season, and several group-stage matches still remain to be played in the 2016-17 CONCACAF Champions League – but as the 2017-18 MLS contingent to the continental tournament begins to take shape, it's worth a look to see who's in already and who's within striking distance of next.
Toronto FC and FC Dallas have already booked their spots, TFC by winning the Amway Canadian Championship and FC Dallas by taking the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup title earlier this month.
Canada gets one spot in the tournament, and the ACC title-winner gets that spot, so the Vancouver Whitecaps – who are already on to the knockout round this time around – and Montreal Impact are out of luck, even if either of those clubs should get hot and win MLS Cup.
The remaining three US berths are all reserved for MLS clubs, as follows:
- Supporters' Shield winner
- First-place regular-season finisher in the other conference
- MLS Cup winner
If a US-based team double-qualifies, then the freed-up slot goes to the US-based MLS club with the next-highest regular-season point total.
Everything shook out according to formula for 2016-17: Vancouver won the ACC, Sporting Kansas City won the Open Cup, New York Red Bulls took the Shield, FC Dallas finished first in the Western Conference, and the Portland Timbers captured their first MLS Cup.
This year, though, there are two clubs with legitimate aspirations of winning MLS' first domestic treble and several others who could pull off a Shield/MLS Cup double. So let's play "What if ..." with a couple of those scenarios, shall we?
If the season ended today (Yes, we know not everyone has played the same number of games. Just go with it), here's how things would play out with a treble – for either team, as it turns out, because both scenarios would open up three spots for downtable American sides.
Should the Reds become MLS' first Shield and MLS Cup winners from north of the border, that would free up two more spots on the US side. Currently, those would go to the LA Galaxy (West leaders Dallas already having qualified) and Colorado Rapids. Dallas' double-qualification would open up one more spot, that one going to the Red Bulls on goal differential ahead of New York City FC.
If FC Dallas pull a treble and TFC finish atop the East, the same scenario would hold: Galaxy and Rapids based on points, RBNY on points and the goal-differential tiebreaker. Things would also play out this way if both teams pull off doubles, locking the other US-based MLS clubs out of the regular qualifying titles.
A Shield/MLS Cup double for LA, Colorado or the Red Bulls – again, assuming the current order of finish – would also produce the same list of qualifiers for 2017-18.
Then again, the last time a team pulled off a double that included MLS Cup came in 2011, when the Galaxy won both the regular- and postseason titles. It's all about who gets hot late – and that's part of the charm of a league where every season goes down to the wire.
