Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: Tactical trickery, old looks & more from Week 2

“Travel makes one modest. You see what a tiny place you occupy in the world.”
– Gustave Flaubert


Week 1 of the 2016 MLS season was notable for a few things. Lots of goals was one of them, and a plethora of teams attacking mostly on the counter was another. If the early part of this decade saw a strong correlation between possession and points, the middle has seen at least the beginnings of that trend's reversal.


The other notable thing about last week was the struggle of home teams, who went just 4-4-2 (W-L-T) -- a somewhat shocking outlier by typical MLS standards. Our league is one of the most home-dominant ones in the world, but that was not in evidence.

Week 2 changed back to normal in that regard as road teams posted a 1-6-3 record. Home teams, through 20 games, are now taking 1.75 points per game, which is more in line with historical norms.


The sample size is still too small to call it conclusive, and MLS will continue to be weird. But I do expect home teams to win somewhere between 50 and 54% of their games this year, as they almost always do.


Onto the week that was:




Complications


Patrick Vieira trotted New York City FC out in a 3-4-3 that ended up playing like a 3-6-1. This sums it up:

That's a fantastic team goal, and is a perfect example of why you want fullbacks who are comfortable pushing into the attack. Chance Myers's overlap gives Graham Zusi a way to unlock the defense that Vancouver didn't quite count upon, and when you add that to a patient back-post run, you get a goal. You also get a 2-1 win, and six points from two games to start the year.


None of it happens, of course, without the midfield industry of Espinoza. And in retrospect, I didn't quite appreciate how big an effect his absence had on Sporting down the stretch last season. When he was injured on August 1 they were 9-4-7 and first in the Western Conference in points per game. Over the next three months they went 5-7-2, fell to sixth place and were generally a sieve through midfield.


The play of Espinoza is a big reason why Sporting are 2-0-0 (playing against 10 men every week is another reason, FWIW) and have survived the absence of Benny Feilhaber with aplomb.


It's too soon to say whether, when Feilhaber gets back, they'll be as good as they were in the first 2/3s of last season -- I still suspect they'll miss Krisztian Nemeth at some crucial juncture. But it's also a reminder that Espinoza, when fit and healthy, is really really good, and helps Sporting win games in ways they were unable to last autumn.




A few more things to ponder...

8. NYCFC weren't the first team to try out a 3-man backline this year. It was the Chicago Fire who broke the seal, going with a 3-5-2 in Friday night's 1-1 draw at Orlando City. We only got to see that look for about 25 minutes, though, as a red card to Michael Harrington meant a bunkered 4-4-1 for the rest of the game.


7. D.C. United went on the road and got a point in New England thanks to Saturday's scoreless draw. United have now scored just two goals in four competitive matches across all competitions.


6. I wrote about how good the Montreal Impact have looked on Saturday, following their 3-0 destruction of the New York Red Bulls. I focused more on their balance and ability to work together, but let's not forget that they have some guys who can make magic:

That chip, courtesy of Harry Shipp, is our Pass of the Week.


5. For the first time in four games RSL managed to avoid conceding a late goal. They defended the RioT to the tune of 2-1 against the struggling Seattle Sounders, who have developed a penchant for falling asleep just before halftime.


4. Marco Pappa's game-winner five minutes into second-half stoppage time salvaged an otherwise dire contest between the Galaxy and the Colorado Rapids in Commerce City. Both teams are sorely lacking midfield creativity, and suffering for it.


3. Is what the Houston Dynamo are doing sustainable? No. They're not actually going to average four goals per game. But so far it certainly is fun as hell, coming in the wake of Saturday's 5-0 humiliation of FC Dallas, and it's nice to see Andrew Wenger making good on his third chance. He's pretty easily been the best winger in the league so far (#NoJinx), and his ability to track back defensively is a legitimate weapon that teams probably can't simulate in practice.


2. Andre Blake showed once again why he was the No. 1 overall SuperDraft pick a couple of years ago. He did enough in Saturday's 2-1 win at Columbus to keep Philly in the game, and Chris Pontius did enough in attack to steal the win.


Special bit of dap to C.J. Sapong for his hold-up play leading to the game-winner, as well.


1. And finally, our Face of the Week goes to David Villa:

Yes, David. I, too, think Khiry should've squared that ball instead of driving it into the side netting.