Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 2 of the 2016 MLS season

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The 2016 MLS season started with a deluge of goals. Some of them came early, but many, many more of them came later in games -- which perhaps speaks to springtime fitness issues, or perhaps a lack of match-sharpness on the mental side. It is interesting that this pattern of late goal-concessions held true across competitions from the CONCACAF Champions League and into the MLS regular season.


It's not just for those teams that participated in CCL, though three of those four did concede late. Rather, it looks like something of a league-wide phenomenon, with teams all over MLS struggling to lock down a result.


I'm not sure what it means, or if it means anything at all. But it's something to keep an eye on.


Let's get to the games:




Superheated


Things started bad for the Chicago Fire last week, and then only got worse in their 4-3 loss to New York City FC. There were problems all over the defense, and in particular a disconnect between the central midfield and back line.


Everyone deserves some blame, but I suspect second-year defensive midfielder Matt Polster has spent a little bit of time trying to build some chemistry with the folks around him this week. Polster had probably his worst game as a pro, but got no defensive help from Razvan Cocis or Arturo Alvarez. In the process they gave NYCFC a bunch of looks, including on the opener:

That's a bad touch from Polster, but it's the right play. It also requires some kind of response from Alvarez, who doesn't drop back to shield the backline as Polster steps up, nor close down Khiry Shelton once Polster's touch has failed.


Fire fans are fretting because this is the exact kind of breakdown that killed them last year. They'll have to be cleaner on Friday night when they travel to Florida to face Orlando City (7 pm ET; UniMas)


I'll also be watching: Cyle Larin's hold-up play. He took some heat early last season for a decided lack of that, but had improved tremendously by year's end. That trend continued in Week 1's draw against RSL.


  • UPDATE: Fire got a red and Larin got a goal, but Friday produced a much more compact and cohesive defensive effort from Chicago in a 1-1 draw. OCSC have now started the season with two home draws, which could very well be a problem come playoff time.




People on the High Line


Toronto FC have had a long trip to New York, which began last weekend with a win over the Red Bulls and will continue, they hope, with three more points on Sunday across the river in The Bronx against New York City FC (5 pm ET; ESPN2). There has been a lot of fun stuff to do in NYC this week, so... we'll see how that goes.


How it went last week is what they want to emulate, but they may have a tough time producing an exact replica against the City Blue half of New York. TFC's idea was to sit deep against RBNY, and then counterattack viciously up their own left side. This is how they produced both goals, and this pattern of play was pretty undeniable:


That is an incredible distribution in terms of where the game was played, and NYCFC -- intentional or not -- should be ready for it simply because Week 1 starter Ethan White is a stay-at-home right back. He's not going to push up high at all, which ipso facto gives TFC less room to roam down that side.


Will they simply flip to the other side of the field? Possibly, since City left back Ronald Matarrita is much more likely to overlap than White. But at the same time, Sebastian Giovinco is orders of magnitude more comfortable going down the left, and he'll drift to that side no matter what the gameplan says.


I'll also be watching: Shelton, at speed. He tortured Brandon Vincent last week, and while Justin Morrow is more experienced, he has zero chance of staying with the NYCFC winger in the open field.




Everything's Gone Green


Portland started 2016 in the say way they finished 2015: By producing a ton of looks off of not all that much possession, and then winning. It may not be the same type of elegant "Porterball" that captivated MLS neutrals back in 2013, but this gambit ended with a trophy, so who's going to cast the first stone?


What's stunning about the way Portland play these days is how adept they are at created chances from the central channel, and specifically Zone 14. This is a map of their key passes -- passes that led directly to a shot -- against Columbus in Week 1's 2-1 win:


That is gruesome, and it's something the San Jose Earthquakes have to be very aware of on Sunday night at Avaya Stadium (7 pm ET; FS1). The Quakes were generally good at shoving Colorado's attacks to the flanks in their Week 1 win, but we saw hints of the type of problems -- possession, tracking, quick overloads -- that 4-4-2 teams have against teams that play a 3-man central midfield.


Which is, of course, exactly what the Timbers do. San Jose have to figure out a way to match up against the trio of Diego Chara, Diego Valeri and Darlington Nagbe, or this will be a short night followed by a long film session on Tuesday.


I'll also be watching:Chris Wondolowski, defender. The more I watch the Timbers the more convinced I am that the best way to slow them down is to sit someone right in Chara's lap and make sure his first pass is lateral or backwards. Wondo can do that, so don't be surprised if San Jose look more like a 4-4-1-1 than a 4-4-2.




One more thing:

Happy weekending, everybody.