We're about three weeks away from my annual "you are what your record says you are" article. Right now I can't say that, since I think some teams that stink have been able to get results while some teams that are pretty good are kind of flailing.
Let's start on Friday night's weekend opener:
1. Beat Connection
Orlando City, because of suspensions, injuries and international absences, played a 3-4-3 in their 2-2 with Montreal last week. I'm actually more willing to call it a 5-3-2, since one of the guys in that "3" line was Kaká, who is much more of a second striker than winger these days.
Here, watch him score a goal - the equalizer – in that game, one that features a first touch so soft you could put a baby to sleep on it:
Kaká obviously makes this play with his vision, his pace, his touch, his composure. And Pedro Ribeiro got postgame props (and an assist) for the role he played, which is obvious.
But let's take a small moment to appreciate the smart and quick – but not impatient – run of Danny Mwanga, who was playing center forward on the day for the Lions. There hasn't been a lot to celebrate in Mwanga's career over the last couple of years, so good execution of a fundamental run your No. 9 simply must make is worth... I don't know. A muted high five or something.
Doubly so because it's the type of movement that's largely been missing from OCSC this season. "Here, Ricky, take these guys 1-vs-5" has been the default setting in the final third, and that just hasn't worked. Mwanga in this one, and Cyle Larin this week for Canada, both showed over the past seven days that they get at least some of the underlying principles of off-the-ball movement, and why taking defenders away from the guy with the Ballon d'Or is actually a pretty good plan.
Runs from the No. 9 don't always have to be straight, and don't always have to be immediate. You can wait a beat, loop around a defender, or whatever. Just clear the space.
They'll need that kind of thinking against a team as well-drilled defensively as D.C. United, who they host on Friday (7 pm ET; UniMas, UDN, UnivisionDeportes.com)
I'll also be watching... D.C.'s crossing. They whipped in 25 against LA last week, and Omar Gonzalez mostly ate them alive. This week they'll be going against a similarly dominant aerial presence in Aurelien Collin. Keeping the ball on the floor is advisable.
2. Someone Great (is gone)
You know there's a Landon Donovan-sized hole on the left side of the LA Galaxy attack, and you know that there's a Marcelo Sarvas-sized hole in the central midfield. You know that Steven Gerrard is coming this summer to take care of that second issue, but did you know who's been doing work on the first?
"xG" is nerd shorthand for "expected goals," which are calculated by using (usually proprietary) algorithms that determine chance quality. They generally take into account stuff like where a shot was taken; body part (head, strong foot, off foot), run of play vs. set piece, etc.
It's not a perfect metric – there's no perfect metric in our game, save for the scoreboard. But it's still a useful metric, and in this instance it speaks to Villarreal's rapid development as a weapon on the left side of midfield in that Donovan role. He obviously lacks Landon's top-end pace, but he's been aggressively north-south in his movements and has done a nice job of staying wide, which drags defenders out of the middle.
Villarreal also still has his forward chops. He was brought up in that spot originally, and played there last weekend in LA's loss at United.
He'll probably be back out left this Saturday when the Galaxy head to Vancouver (10 pm ET; TSN1, MLS LIVE). US fans might want to keep an eye on his performance, since 1) He'll be going against an international-quality right back in Steven Beitashour, and 2) Villarreal recently turned down a US U-23 call-up to focus on nailing down his starting role with the club.
I'll also be watching... David Ousted's command of his box. The Vancouver 'keeper has been a rock-solid shot-stopper this year, but he's had only two catches, two punches and three "keeper sweepings" this year. He is an old school 'keeper.
3. Tribulations
Nobody in the league had a worse March than the Philadelphia Union. They coughed up goals at awful times; earned red cards in awful ways; were slow to get into transition and were simply awful in front of net. They lost possession more than any other team in the league (662 times), but were only middle of the pack in recoveries per 90 minutes. And they'll enter this game without anyone to play as an attacking midfielder, since Zach Pfeffer and Fred are suspended and Cristian Maidana is still hurt.
Worst of all: they have been simply awful in the air. Of the 123 aerials they've contested, they've won only 50 of them.
That was Opara's second goal of the season already, and basically the MLS equivalent of this:
Sometimes, you just can't match up physically. It's not often as telling in our game as it is in the NBA, but Philly's defenders better be ready to bump Opara early on set-piece run-ups when the two teams meet on Sunday evening (7 pm ET; FoxSports 1; TSN 2)
I'll also be watching... Sporting's pressure. They haven't really been pressing high this year, but I think it comes back against a Philly team that just hasn't been able to build from the back with any consistency.
