Armchair Analyst: The 30-goal barrier? It's a target – but a distant one (for now)

We're celebrating the fact it's 30 days 'til MLS, so my editor asked me this morning to predict if anyone will ever crack the 30-goal barrier in MLS. Presumably he meant in a single season.

Let me just answer succinctly: Yes. Cristiano Ronaldo – who today, turns 30, and how's that for synchronicity? – will do it for Beckham's Miami team in 2018: 

We'll probably do some decent traffic that day. (Note: Yes, Miami expansion will happen, and yes, I believe Ronaldo will be their first big signing. This is just rank speculation on my part, but let your imaginations run wild, kids.)

You shouldn't need me to list Ronaldo's virtues as a goalscorer, athlete and overall soccer player. I'm firmly in the "Messi is better" camp, but I'm also fully aware that Ronaldo is a scoring machine with a thunderbolt of a right foot and a brain that never gets enough credit.

That last part is the issue I want to examine here, since it's the most interesting part of how goals are scored. Almost every time the ball goes into the net, it's a function of multiple factors that include technique, athleticism, one defensive breakdown or another, tactical choices and team play. Some goals are more about the individual than others, but even a penalty was earned, in some measure, by team play. Same with a direct kick, same with an own goal. Something happened to tilt the balance of things a few percentage points in the direction of the guys who put the ball in the net.

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Ronaldo's greatest gift is that he can synthesize those moments on the fly faster than almost anyone. He's surrounded by teammates who do the same work nearly as fast, both mentally and physically. As a result, he gets more chances to score than almost anyone.

This is what separates the top dozen or so teams in the world from everyone else: the goalscorer's brain in full flight, working in concert with teammates who are seeing and processing things faster than the defense they're mercilessly ripping apart.

The guys who have come closest to that magical 30-goal barrier in MLS, Chris Wondolowski and Bradley Wright-Phillips, aren't electric on the break. Neither is at all remarkble in 1-v-1 situations. They rarely score from outside the box. And while both are good in the air, it's more of the "ghosting in front of the defender" rather than the "towering over everyone" sort of aerial prowess. (What makes Ronaldo an all-time great – and again, you shouldn't need me to say this – is that he's all of the above and more.)

Both are, in short, creatures of the 18-yard box. As good as they are at converting chances, in their 27-goal seasons, they were better than everybody else at knowing where to find the best chances:

(Source: Opta Sports)

Being a consistent goalscorer has less to do with the spectacular and more to do with understanding that volume and repeatability are king. Brain, not foot. It's as true for Ronaldo as it is for Wondo.

Here's a bit from advanced soccer metrics expert Devin Pleuler, who's done the math:

Bruce Arena could tweak his system to get Keane or Zardes more looks. Either Wondo or BWP could have another special year in them and be the first to 30. New Vancouver target forward Octavio Rivero has both the profile and the providers behind him to make a real run at it, should the 'Caps stay healthy and use the same system in 2015. David Villa is playing for an expansion team, but he's still David Villa. Let's not rule him out. Dempsey, with a full offseason to rest, would also be a decent choice if it weren't for the Gold Cup stealing him away for an as-yet undetermined number of contests in June. The same goes for Jozy Altidore in Toronto – and it's certainly worth mentioning that he scored 31 goals in 41 games across all competitions for AZ Alkmaar two short years ago.

Regardless, all of them are long shots. All of them are much more likely to end up with 12-15 goals than 25-30. But as Wondo and BWP have shown over the past three years, long-shots can pay off every now and again.

So I'm not going to wager anything appreciable that it's Ronaldo who ultimately answers my editor's question (even though I totally think it will be).

What I will wager is that whoever does the deed will manage it by mastering the same things that got BWP and Wondo to 30: finding those spaces in the box, being a half-step smarter before you're a half-step quicker, and realizing that for even the very best, there's quality in quantity.