There are two playoff spots open in the West heading into Decision Day presented by AT&T. There are four teams in contention. Two of those teams play each other on Sunday. One of those two teams will make the playoffs; the other likely will not.
It would be somewhat crazy, and embarrassing, for either to miss the playoffs.
The Portland Timbers and San Jose Earthquakes have been two of the more interesting and dramatic (in a good sports! way) teams in the league this year.
How they got here
The Timbers started the season with 12 straight games on the road. It was generally assumed that they would attempt to survive those 12 games, cobble together just enough points to give themselves a chance, then get hot during their stretch of home games in the second half of the season. D.C. United, Houston, and Sporting Kansas City had taken similar paths to the playoffs in previous years when opening new or renovated stadiums.
It didn’t quite work out like that. The Timbers overachieved on the road — and it seemed like they would have a legit chance at a top-four seed — but have struggled at home. Teams realized the Timbers might be really good, so they put numbers behind the ball at Providence Park and the Timbers have struggled to break them down. New signing Brian Fernandez looked like a lock to win MLS Newcomer of the Year after his first month but has since gone cold. The Timbers are 2-4-2 at Providence Park recently and enter the last game of the season with uncertainty.
The Earthquakes, meanwhile, got off to one of the worst starts in league history, 0-4-0 with a minus-12 goal differential; it seemed we could cross them out in early April. Then they put together a Supporters’ Shield-worthy pace through the middle third of the season. They climbed as high as third at one point.
Then, as you can see in that graphic, they started to plummet. They have lost eight of their last 10.
Strangely, though, they haven’t played that poorly through that stretch. Part of it is that teams have simply figured out how to play against Matias Almeyda’s man-marking system:
And part of is that their wingers have gone cold. A main component of San Jose’s attack is to spread teams out, then allow Vako and Cristian Espinoza to attack the space on the dribble. Vako contributed six goals and two assists in ten games in the summer; he has zero goals and two assists in 11 games since then.
The last time these teams played
The Quakes won 3-0 back on April 6, their first win of the year. Portland got stuck in a pattern of trying to dribble in the 1-v-1 situations created by San Jose’s man-marking and the Quakes won those duels.
Portland get in if:
- They win
- They draw
- They lose and Dallas lose or draw
San Jose get in if:
- They win
- They draw and Dallas lose or draw
Portland will win if…
First, let’s establish this: The Quakes have been the better team over the last two months, despite their results. I would be surprised if the Quakes don’t have more than 50% of possession in this game and generally control the flow of the match. You cannot go into a game against San Jose and expect to boss the game; that’s when they uppercut you in the mouth.
The Timbers, or their fans, should not be upset by that. Instead, they need to embrace it. Let the Quakes have the ball, let them get comfortable. Play on the counter…
...just like they did to reach MLS Cup 2018
San Jose will win if…
- They don’t shoot themselves in the foot. No red cards, no bad giveaways in the back.
- Vako is sharp. There are two Vakos: The Carlos Vela version, and the Josue Colman version (who is Josue Colman? Exactly). If you think the Carlos Vela comparison is a stretch, you haven’t seen Vako when he’s on.
With the way the Quakes play, Vako will get space to attack. It’s up to him to exploit it.
I’ll be watching…
Yueill (left) in action against Portland's Jorge Moreira. | USA Today Images
Jackson Yueill vs. Diego Chara. A lot of people, myself included, are very high on Yueill. He’s been excellent this year. He’s even gotten a look with the USMNT. How good is he actually? This is the type of game that tells us a lot. You know how you go from being a guy who people name drop to sound cool, to being a legitimately everyone-knows-this-guy-is-good player? You outplay Chara in a must-win game.
USMNT fans are still skeptical about Yueill. A big performance on Sunday could change that.
