After a light Week 27 in MLS, teams still moved up and down in the race for the Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs. Ahead of a big midweek fixture list on Wednesday, here's what the playoff picture looks like according to latest MLS projections from probability specialists FiveThirtyEight.
Eastern Conference
With a 2-1 win over the New England Revolution that took them to the top of the East, NYCFC are the favorites to stay in first in the East (66%) and earn home-field advantage plus that sweet, sweet first-round bye. Atlanta United (24%) and Philadelphia Union (16%) are still in the conversation, though.
The Revs slipped to a 55% chance to make the playoffs with the loss to NYCFC, now sitting in seventh in the East. Toronto FC's rout of FC Cincinnati give the Canadian club a 91% probability to stay above the playoff line. TFC travel to the Bronx to face NYCFC Wednesday (7 pm ET | TSN 4/5, MLS LIVE on ESPN+ in US), the only midweek match impacting the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Below New England, the Montreal Impact (39%) still are hanging around in the playoff race while Orlando City (17%) and Chicago Fire (12%) continue to hold out slim hope of ending the season strong and sneaking over the playoff line.
The New York Red Bulls still have the best chance to finish fourth and grab that last first-round home game (43%), though D.C. United (24%) and TFC (23%) still might have something to say about that.
Behind LAFC (more on that in a minute), the top three teams in the East have the next best MLS Cup chances. NYCFC (16%), Atlanta (12%) and the Union (6%) are still dreaming of hoisting the big trophy.
Western Conference
The biggest result of the weekend out West came in Portland, when the Timbers climbed back above the playoff line after a thrilling 2-1 win over Sporting KC and are up to 94% likely to make the playoffs. They are also most likely to finish second in the West than any other position (27%), better than the Seattle Sounders (19%), Minnesota United(17%) and Real Salt Lake (15%).
On the other side of the Timbers' uplifting win was SKC, which led 1-0 after 80 minutes. Instead of securing three massive road points, the loss drops Sporting's playoff chances to 7% in the algorithmic eyes of FiveThirtyEight.
In the clump of second through eighth, separated by just four points, Portland, Seattle (92%), Minnesota (89%) and RSL (88%) are viewed as the safest bets to make the playoffs while FC Dallas (65%) are seen as the odd club out once Decision Day presented by AT&T comes and goes. San Jose (79%) and the current eighth-place side while LA Galaxy (86%) are in the mix as well.
As for MLS Cup chances, LAFC continue to dominate that category with a 50% (!) likelihood to lift the trophy in November. Given their dominance, all the teams in the West suffer, with Portland having the second-best chance with 3% then Seattle, Minnesota, RSL, Galaxy and San Jose all at 2%.
