The task sounds simple enough: win and they're in. But, nothing is ever as simple as it seems.
The LA Galaxy host the Houston Dynamo on Decision Day presented by AT&T this Sunday (4:30 pm ET | TV & Streaming Info) needing just a win to make the playoffs. Anything less and Real Salt Lake will retain the Western Conference's final Audi 2018 MLS Cup Playoffs spot.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Galaxy have a 64 percent probability to beat the Dynamo this weekend and qualify for the playoffs. This season, Houston have struggled away from home. They have fewer wins on the road than all teams except for Minnesota United and are just 1-10-5.
But what about how the all-time head to head matchup? That's when the outlook becomes a bit murkier.
The Galaxy are 10-10-7 all-time against the Dynamo and their matchups average2.5 goals per game all time. LA haven't beaten Houston since 2016 (three games played since).
Looking at recent history, this fixture has had even more goals. Since 2017, in three games, they have averaged five goals against each other. The Dynamo beat LA 3-2 earlier this season. Last season, they tied both matchups, 3-3 and 2-2. A bit further back, in 2016, the Galaxy beat the Dynamo all three times of asking: 1-0, 1-0 and 4-0.
As always, nothing is a guarantee. The Galaxy still have 90 minutes of work to do to make the playoffs. Can they get the job done over Houston?
