Making predictions in Major League Soccer can be a fool’s errand. With parity the default setting for most of the league’s history, basement dwellers can vault into the ballroom with startling speed – witness the recently-reborn Houston Dynamo and Chicago Fire – and dynasties can just as quickly turn to dust. (Ask the LA Galaxy.)
Certain big-picture trends have taken shape in the build-up to 2018, though. So here’s a rundown of some scenes, personalities and plotlines to keep in mind as the season unfurls.
Who Will Rise?
Alberth "La Panterita" Elis: Leading the charge in Houston | USA Today Images
Even though neither won major hardware, the Dynamo and Fire were two of last year’s feel-good stories: clubs with proud histories who turned the page on several years of woe with dramatic turnarounds that landed them in the MLS Cup Playoffs.
MLS is a place where these sorts of swift revivals can take place, even in midseason. The Colorado Rapids, Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake have given us examples over the past two years, and now 2017 strugglers like D.C. United, the LA Galaxy and Montreal Impact aim to follow suit.
The Battle of Los Angeles
LAFC's Bob Bradley and Sigi Schmid of the Galaxy | USA Today Images
LAFC are finally here, and so for the first time since 2014 Southern California is home to two MLS teams, sparking a duel for hearts and minds (and butts in seats) across a soccer-mad megalopolis of some 25 million residents.
The newcomers swaggered onto the scene with flashy branding, a large, flush ownership group, dazzling downtown stadium and notable marquee names like Carlos Vela and Bob Bradley. Yet their roster remains confoundingly short of full size, even if more of the players currently in camp officially sign in the days ahead.
Meanwhile, down in Carson, the incumbent Galaxy have kept their South Bay cool, declaring a “Since 96” tagline and buffing, metaphorically at least, their five MLS Cup rings. That’s probably just as well, considering that 2017 was their worst season ever, prompting a dramatic – and so far highly promising – squad makeover since Sigi Schmid arrived for his second stint in charge last July.
Target on TFC
TFC parade their 2017 plunder | USA Today Images
With the Galaxy taking some hard knocks, the league’s center of gravity has shifted well north and east. Toronto FC are now MLS’ model franchise as well as reigning treble winners and marked men. Last year the Reds set a new standard, and now they aim to make further history by staying a while at the top.
TFC used the continuing influx of Targeted Allocation Money to cook up a smart, ambitious batch of offseason signings headlined by Ager Aketxe, Auro and Gregory van der Wiel. Blue-chip talent, tactical adaptability and a sturdy culture of success give the Canadian side real hopes of repeat feats at home and CONCACAF Champions League glory abroad.
Up from the South
Ezequiel Barco | Atlanta United
South America has always been a rich recruiting ground for MLS – and the rest of the world too, for that matter – but over the winter the stream became a flood. More than two dozen products of the continent have arrived in the league since last season’s end, and at markedly younger ages than past editions.
The New York Red Bulls’ capture of Alejandro Romero "Kaku" Gamarra and Atlanta United’s MLS-record-breaking purchase Ezequiel Barco dominated the headlines, thanks in part to drawn-out transfer sagas with Argentinean sides Huracan and CA Independiente, respectively. But also keep an eye out for the likes of Milton Valenzuela with Columbus Crew SC, Orlando City’s Paraguayan Josue Colman and Santiago Mosquera with FC Dallas.
New Bosses in Town
Timbers owner Merritt Paulson (L) with new coach Giovanni Savarese | USA Today Images
Once known as a place with relatively long leashes for coaches, MLS has experienced a wave of managerial turnover lately. The aforementioned Sigi Schmid is one of eight head coaches who’ve been in their current job for less than a year, and six of those are new for this season.
Some are familiar faces, like Bradley and retired US national teamer Brad Friedel (New England Revolution). Others arrived from overseas, like the San Jose Earthquakes’ Swedish gaffer Mikael Stahre, respected French figure Remi Garde in Montreal and former New Zealand boss Anthony Hudson, whose Colorado Rapids tenure kicked off early with CCL action this month.
The Portland Timbers' Giovanni Savarese might just be the most intriguing of the bunch, an old-school MLS hero with hard-earned savvy and a global contacts list.
Young and Restless, Old and Relentless
David Villa: Still hunting | USA Today Images
Hardcore North American soccer heads are by now familiar with the #PlayYourKids movement, the grow-your-own philosophy that’s taken root at Homegrown hubs FC Dallas, the New York Red Bulls and Real Salt Lake.
Many are watching to see whether the Philadelphia Union and Montreal Impact follow through with plans to take a similar tack this year, and even star-studded Atlanta United have built a promising pipeline from academy to first team.
So MLS is getting younger. But don’t let that distract from your appreciation of the veterans who continue to command the spotlight. David Villa is still torching defenses at age 36, and even has a chance to earn an incredible fourth World Cup trip with mighty Spain this summer. Iconic goalkeepers Tim Howard and Nick Rimando remain starters at 38, while US lions DaMarcus Beasley and Kyle Beckerman keep on trucking as their 36th birthdays approach.
Tactical Innovations … and Imitations
Greg Vanney and Patrick Vieira | USA Today Images
In a league where variations on the 4-2-3-1 formation were once a default setting, Toronto, Atlanta and New York City FC have lately been drivers of stylistic innovation. TFC dominated the league last year with a possession-centric 3-5-2 as one of their mainstay shapes, while Gerardo “Tata” Martino has shaped ATL UTD into a high-octane attacking unit with distinctive patterns of play and City's Patrick Vieira made it cool to build out of the back.
Such successful new approaches in MLS tend to be copied, and we’ve already seen Colorado and the Vancouver Whitecaps working in three-man back line setups during preseason. Will someone else change the paradigm this year?
Big Dreams Down South
Atlanta's Michael Parkhurst and Orlando's Dom Dwyer | USA Today Images
Atlanta wowed the league in their expansion debut campaign, and followed it with another ambitious offseason, swinging big-money deals for Barco and skilful midfielder Darlington Nagbe, among others. The Five Stripes have been a surprise smash hit in the capital of the South, but must now avoid the sophomore slump.
A few hours to the south, their nascent rivals in purple are also gearing up in pursuit of glory. Sick and tired of missing out on the postseason in all three of their years of MLS play, Orlando City SC made whopping 13 new acquisitions, at least eight of them starting-caliber, underlining the urgency that will pace their season – and in all likelihood, their three grudge matches with ATL.
Russia and its Repercussions
The league will take a brief breather in June as the planet turns its attention to the 2018 World Cup. Participating in that tournament is a realistic goal for two-dozen or so MLS players, all of whom will aim to prove their fitness and form to their various national-team coaches in the season’s opening stages.
Two countries who WON’T be taking part, as most readers know all too well, are the United States and Canada. Both are set to enter new eras under new leadership, the US with a still-to-be-selected head coach and general manager and Canada by John Herdman, who surprisingly moved over from Les Rouges’ very successful women’s squad in January.
They’ll look to MLS as a source of present and future talent, providing new faces with a crucial opportunity to join the rebuilding process.
New Era in the Capital
Paul Arriola and Ben Olsen lead D.C. | USA Today Images
D.C. United were MLS’ first great club, dominating the league’s early years and filling up a large trophy case at venerable RFK Stadium. That iconic but ancient venue eventually became a millstone around United’s neck, however, forcing beloved player turned longtime coach Ben Olsen to play a soccer version of Moneyball value shopping to compete as the Black-and-Red sought a new home.
That quest is finally nearing fruition, and its completion could launch D.C. back into the MLS elite. In July Olsen & Co. will at long last move into Audi Field, their intimate new facility on the Anacostia River waterfront. And though that requires them to play 12 of their first 14 games on the road as well as two early home games at one-off venues in Maryland, the payoff will be enormous for the league’s original flagship franchise.
