How will seeding work out in the Western Conference | Expected Goals

The Audi 2017 MLS Cup Playoff race is extremely tight in the Western Conference, with the first-place Portland Timbers only having nine more points than eighth-place Real Salt Lake.

As you can see when looking at the latest playoff probabilities from FiveThirtyEight.com, the six teams currently above the playoff line are the ones most likely to reach the postseason. Where each club will be seeded, however, is very much up in the air.

Looking at a team's goal differential can tell you something about the quality of their performances over the course of a season. Going by that, it would seem Sporting Kansas City are the best in the West with their +11 GD. They are followed by Houston, Seattle, Portland, Vancouver and Dallas.

Digging into the expected goals numbers, Seattle clearly have the top xGD among all West teams.

That xGD figure represents the goal difference that the teams would be expected to have on average based on the quality of chances they created and conceded. Looking at these figures, it seems Vancouver have been slightly overperforming compared to their Western foes. We'll see if that's reflected down the stretch, or if the 'Caps continue to punch above their weight. 

With that, we'll dive into the xG numbers from Week 26 and 27. A couple of important notes before looking at the numbers: Penalties have a value of .79, and own goals are not factored into the values.