Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the Radar for Week 6 of the MLS regular season

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Armchair Analyst: On the Radar for Week 6 of the MLS regular season -


LISTEN: MLS will have to wait another year to lift the CONCACAF Champions League trophy after FC Dallas and the Vancouver Whitecaps crashed out against Liga MX in the semis. The guys take a big-picture look at the results before moving on to CONCACAF's joint World Cup bid and Week 6 action. Plus, 'Caps forward Fredy Montero on why he left China his one-time Cascadia rivals.  Subscribe so you don't miss a show!


Happy 21st birthday, MLS. This week marked the anniversary of this game, and this goal:



Hope you celebrated in style. Here's what's on the radar for this weekend:




Living for the City


D.C. United got their first goals and first win of the season last week against Philadelphia, which was both nice for them and necessary overall. They didn't, however, play particularly well, and if not for some late heroics from Bill Hamid would've squandered the the points while launching themselves into what would officially be termed a crisis.


Don't worry, D.C. haters, they can still get there! Because this Saturday they'll be hosting an NYCFC side (4 pm ET; Facebook.com | UniMas in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada) who are 1) better in attack than Philly, and 2) will be going at that Marcelo Savas-sized hole in United's midfield. Sarvas was justifiably suspended for stomping Derrick Jones, and Rob Vincent's hurt, and now Ben Olsen will probably be forced to play either box-to-box veteran Jared Jeffrey or youngster Chris Durkin (age: 17) at defensive midfield.


This is not insignificant. Sarvas has not looked particularly good this season and you could make a serious argument that Father Time is winning that battle, but he's still central to everything United does:

Armchair Analyst: On the Radar for Week 6 of the MLS regular season -

That's the network passing graph from last weekend's United win, made using Opta data. Each circle represents the corresponding player's aggregate position, and the thickness of the lines represents the volume of passes they exchanged. Sarvas is No. 7, the guy who connects the backline to the front five while shielding the central defense.


He's kind of a big deal. Even with him slowing down and being a liability at times, he's still the vocal leader of the midfield and a vital cog who lets the attackers go where they want, usually when they want. Can you argue that guys like Jeffrey or Durkin are actually more individually talented players than Sarvas? Absolutely. But there is so, so much more to making a team work than just "talent." Chemistry and communication are vastly underappreciated parts of the game, and are usually the things coaches mean they they talk about "veteran leadership."


Durking, for what it's worth, is a true d-mid, is the captain of the US U-17s, and was very good in his one run-out for United last year in the US Open Cup. But he's off to a somewhat slow and disjointed start through two weeks of USL play, and Jeffrey is the better bet to get the No. 6 role.


I'll also be watching: Yeah, NYCFC's attack. They've been beautiful to watch all year, and undressed D.C. the last time these two teams played.




Pastime Paradise


RBNY have prospered over the last two years under Jesse Marsch by keeping their opponents inside their OODA loop. They were able to make the game faster and tighter and more active all over the pitch, and while doing that keep making their decisions faster and more accurately than the vast, vast majority of their opponents.


That hasn't been the case in 2017, not remotely. RBNY have been been caught inside their own OODA loop, revving it up higher and higher to no good end.


"We’re rushing things, not passing to the next guy to move things, we’re not setting up teammates," is how Sacha Kljestan described the phenomenon to FourFourTwo.com's Paul Tenorio this week. "Watching video this week, we’re shoving balls into guys and not consciously thinking about the type of pass we’re delivering.” 


The numbers back up the eye test:

New York's passing accuracy is down across the board, via Opta, and that imprecision is having as much of a deleterious effect on the defense as it is on the attack. Every time the ball turns over is a moment the game can be won or lost, and RBNY have staked their claim on winning those moments more often than not over the last 26 months. So far in 2017... nope.


It's been the same whether they've been at home or on the road, which they will be this Sunday in central Florida (4 pm ET; ESPN, ESPN Deportes in the US | MLS Live in Canada).


I'll also be watching:Houston hung four on New York last weekend by just skipping the midfield and playing long up the flanks to their attackers. Orlando City's been doing that all year regardless of the opponent.




Higher Ground


Nobody from Colorado's come out and said it, but I think it's pretty obvious: Last week's move that shipped out Sam Cronin and March Burch came with a mandate to play more attacking soccer. That means we're almost certainly going to see Bismark Adjei-Boateng get his first real MLS minutes, and we could possibly see Dillon Serna deployed at left back (the Rapids have tried him there occasionally over the years).


It will take a serious shake-up to get the Rapids to change, though. They're a defense-first, grind-it-out team, and that's what carried them to second place in the West last year. They hit a ton of long-balls (95 per game, which leads the league), and a ton of crosses (21 per game, which is tied for second in the league). If they're going to reach some elevated plane of aesthetic achievement, it's going to require more than just a couple of personnel switches.


The Rapids, you see, simply do not combine around the box:

Armchair Analyst: On the Radar for Week 6 of the MLS regular season -

Those are all their successful passes in the attacking third from three weeks ago vs. Minnesota United. Green arrows are successful passes, yellow are key passes (passes that lead to a shot), and blue are assists. They were able to get to the final third, but didn't have much ability to work together once they were there, even against a defense that's been historically bad to start their MLS tenure.


Sporting KC, who the Rapids will visit on Sunday (7 pm ET; FS1, FOX Deportes in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada), are not historically bad. Far from it:

I'll also be watching:Jimmy Medranda's decision-making on the ball in the final third. He does a lot of nice stuff, but if he's going to be a winger for this team he needs to either create chances or score them.




One more thing:


"Curl"


Take your time to enjoy the little things.


Happy weekending, everybody.