Copa America Centenario: Are USA favored vs. Ecuador?

Well, it happened, despite all the naysayers. After a Copa América opener that saw us USMNT fans shrinking under the joy from the Colombians in our life, things turned around. You could say it got pretty spectacularly US-gonna-US.


Not only did the team wind up whooping Costa Rica 4-0 and beating Paraguay 1-0, but somehow Jurgen Klinsmann pulled it off in all the ways people thought wouldn’t work.


Not only that, but somehow the soccer gods intervened and the US wound up winning the group. Yes, over Colombia. What?  


That brings us to tonight’s quarterfinal against Ecuador at Seattle’s CenturyLink Field (9:30pm ET, FS1, UniMás, UDN). Ecuador are a strong team to say the least — they’re 13th in FIFA rankings, to the USA’s 31st. But could we potentially call the US favorites for the game? Here are a few quick reasons why:


The US are stronger across the back than some might think: Every discussion of Ecuador centers on their attack. To be sure, it’s something to be worried about. But if the US hang back, our defense might be able to hack it.


Plus, there’s goalkeeper Brad Guzan, who turned in an outstanding performance last Saturday in Philadelphia. (Read up here on everything Armchair Analyst Matthew Doyle thinks Ecuador might try and here for a primer on the Ecuador team in general.)


The USMNT is already defying the odds in this tournament ... in more ways than one: The #narrative around the team follows a few threads — there’s the guy doing well for his country when things are extremely down at his club (Guzan). There’s the veteran who people counted out — and even wanted to bench — who flaunted a beautiful goal in the face of the haters (Clint Dempsey).


There’s the MLS darling who proves his mettle the second he actually gets some playing time (Darlington Nagbe, who has already scored against Ecuador). There’s the teen who literally went to his prom during Copa prep (Christian Pulisic). Then there are the secret weapons, many underrated and now proving essential (John Brooks, Alejandro Bedoya). Everywhere you look, there’s somebody’s story you could love.


This all figures into a serious home-field advantage: Unlike other Copa venues—like, say, the Rose Bowl, which historically proves to be pro-Mexico—CenturyLink Field is likely to prove pro-US. With fans fired up on both the results and the narrative so far, they’re likely to make it an even louder and more intimidating atmosphere for their opponents.


Sounders fans and supporters have already shown the electric atmosphere they can muster in that huge space—and the USMNT’s MLS players will already be familiar with both that, and the lay of the land itself.  The talk on social media is that CLink could even come to compete with Columbus’ MAPFRE Stadium for title of most advantageous US venue.


So how will this all play out? A US win would take the tournament one step forward to an epic final. Love or hate the USMNT, plenty of soccer fans would love to see the US take on one of the world’s titans of the game, whether to see them wipe out — or pull out a historic upset.


Hey, even Stu Holden thinks a US-Mexico final is possible. Wouldn't we all love to debate who the favorite in that one will be.