For the US national team, the Copa America Centenario represents a rare opportunity to face some of the world’s top teams in a tournament outside of the World Cup. But with the difficult 2015 the US went through, a good showing this summer becomes all the more important.
With a tough field of competitors ready for selection and few pushovers among the bunch, US coach Jurgen Klinsmann will have clear preferences for how the draw shakes out if he wants to advance deep into the tournament. But he isn’t giving much away.
“Knowing finally who we have in our group, who we have to prepare for and which teams are playing where, will be of huge help,” Klinsmann said in comments released by US Soccer. “But it’s also just really exciting to host the Copa America in the United States this summer.”
The US as hosts will be a seeded team alongside Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, the strongest teams from their respective federations. That means the US will avoid some of the best teams in the group stage, but the draw leaves plenty of other intimidating options for the group stage.
“Once you have your own group and see, if you go through that group, who you will meet in the next stage, that obviously gives you a lot more meat to the bone,” Klinsmann said. “It helps you prepare things and it raises the bar on excitement and expectations. People start after the draw to realize just how big this tournament is. Hosting Copa America, the second-biggest tournament in the world after the World Cup in our region, is tremendous.”
Klinsmann may not be willing to divulge his own preferences for the draw, but here is a look at what should be the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the US. Remember that they will only need to finish in the top two to advance to the knockout rounds.
Pot 2: Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay
This is the toughest pot in the draw outside the seeded teams, featuring the top four remaining CONMEBOL teams based on FIFA's December rankings, and this pot makes dreaming up a best-case scenario difficult.
Best-case: Ecuador is the lowest-ranked of the grouping and represents the weakest link. Although Ecuador has looked strong in World Cup qualifying lately, especially in light of forward Enner Valencia being sidelined with injury, Copa America will be a different beast. The US last saw Ecuador in a 2014 friendly, drawing 1-1.
Worst-case: Uruguay, with Luis Suarez returning to action next month from the suspension he is still serving after his infamous 2014 World Cup bite, will be more than a handful. The two-time World Cup champion is widely considered the top team in this pot for good reason. The US hasn’t faced Uruguay since 2002.
Who should USMNT want to face from Pot 2?
Pot 3: Costa Rica, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama
This is a batch of familiar foes for the US as it features the remaining non-seeded CONCACAF squads.
Best-case: All of the teams here are beatable for the US, but Haiti is the clear weakest team and is the lowest-ranked with good reason. The US most recently faced Haiti in July, winning 1-0.
Worst-case: Costa Rica is the toughest challenge here, with their run in the 2014 World Cup a lingering memory of what they can do. The US lost to Los Ticos back in October, 1-0.
Who should USMNT want to face from Pot 3?
Pot 4: Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela
This pot represents the bottom four CONMEBOL teams based on FIFA's December rankings.
Best-case: This is another pot where the US stacks up well against each team, but the US should be hoping for Venezuela in their group. Venezuela's players revolted in December and demanded a coaching change after a very poor 2015, but there's no clear indication the team's situation is much better lately. La Vinotinto hasn't achieved anything of note and last faced the US in 2012, where the US won 1-0.
Worst-case: Paraguay is the team to avoid here. They’ve done well in World Cup qualifying thus far and were a semifinalist at the 2015 Copa America, along with Peru. Although their recent schedule may have not been the toughest, Paraguay is the all-around best team here. The US last faced Paraguay in 2011, losing 1-0.
