Brazil Bracket Challenge: Advanced stats predictor has USA finishing last in Group G

The US national team has just a 22 percent chance of qualifying for the knockout phase. This according to a report from Michael Caley at SB Nation.

He was able to come up with this number by calculating each teams expected goals, which is a predictive model the site uses for the Premier League and MLS coverage. Per SB Nation, expected goals are “based on shot locations and shot types for more than 1,000 international matches since 2009, plus scores for another 2,000 matches. The model accounts for strength of schedule, the recency of the match, and whether it was a competitive fixture or a friendly.”

The model picks Portugal and Germany as the favorites to get out of Group G with Portugal having a 75 percent chance of advancing and Germany sitting at 69 percent. Ghana sit in third with a 34 percent chance of advancing.

In case you were wondering, the model gives the USMNT a 0.2 percent chance of raising the trophy in Maracanã on July 13. Brazil are the favorites according to the stats, with a 28 percent chance of winning the World Cup. Spain are right behind with a 24 percent chance of winning. Portugal are a distant third, sitting at seven percent.

Mexico, even after their rough qualifying campaign, are given a 43 percent chance of advancing from Group A. This is good for second in the group, 10 percent points more than Croatia.


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