TV analysts Marcelo Balboa and Eric Wynalda put themselves on the line by saying that the U.S. national team actually could go into the 2006 World Cup believing they had a chance to win it all. Of course, they did this on ESPN2 before the World Cup draw on Friday afternoon from Leipzig, Germany.
Had both Hall of Famers known beforehand that Bruce Arena's side would be drawn into a group with Italy and Czech Republic, they might not have gone out on such a limb.
The question of the moment is not whether the U.S. will win the World Cup next summer or once again reach the quarterfinals like the side from 2002 did. It's whether or not this team can even get out of the group. The two European sides it will play should be the odds-on favorites to emerge from Group E, while Ghana will be expected to struggle mightily and finish in fourth place. The U.S. side's fortunes will be dictated by what transpires in their opening match against the Czech Republic on June 12 in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. If everything goes to form, this will be a game that will pit the two contenders to join Italy in the Round of 16.
What also doesn't help the U.S. is the order of the matches. The fact that Italy opens against a Ghana side that should not give them much trouble will give the Azzurri the type of momentum they need going into an encounter with the Americans on June 17 in Kaiserslautern, Germany.
In tournament play, it's important to post points up on the board as soon as possible. The confidence a victory can provide a team in the opening match sets the tone for the tournament.
Even though the U.S. ultimately tied and lost its next two matches after beating Portugal during the '02 World Cup, it was still the building block in a very successful World Cup. Beating Luis Figo and Co. helped give Arena's side a reason to believe it could knock off a powerful European team like Germany, which nearly happened in the quarterfinals.
In a perfect world, the U.S. would open against Ghana and let the two European sides fight it out. The second game would be against the Czechs, while the third match would be against the Italians when they knew exactly what they needed to do in order to advance out of group play.
Looking at it from another point of view is U.S. assistant coach Glenn "Mooch" Myernick. He believes that the team's starting date of June 12 is an advantageous one.
"I think to not be playing on the first three days of the tournament gives the players a chance to be there and get a feel for the climate of the tournament," he said on ussoccer.com shortly after the draw was announced. "It gives us a few more days of preparation, which I think is good."
Extra preparation or not, it's going to be quite a test for the Americans. Missing out on a seed by one spot ended up biting this team in the rear. Despite being ranked eighth in the world, they opened with 80-1 odds to win the World Cup according to one gambling website after getting such a tough draw. (Brazil opens at the tournament favorite at 2.2-1).
As tough as Group E looks right now, it does not deserve "Group of Death" status. That moniker should be placed firmly on Group C since it features two legitimate contenders for the Cup in Argentina and Holland, an African team that no one wanted to draw in Ivory Coast and a very tough wildcard type of side in Serbia & Montenegro. In many ways, it resembles the "Group of Death" (Group F) from '02: England, Argentina, Sweden and Nigeria and is seemingly stronger than Group D in 1998 that had Bulgaria, Paraguay, Nigeria, and Spain fighting it out.
While many national team managers will be leaving Leipzig, with Gazza-like snarls implanted on their faces, Jurgen Klinsmann has to feel good about his team's prospects for Group A since Poland, Costa Rica and Ecuador hardly constitutes a Murderer's Row for the World Cup hosts. Portugal's esteemed manager Luiz Felipe Scolari will have a Merry Christmas after seeing his side get placed into Group D against the weakest of the seeded teams in Mexico, as well as Iran and Angola. And Spain should have no complaints knowing it'll play Ukraine, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia next summer.
Without taking days or weeks to allow this to sink in, let's take a knee-jerk look at the eight different groups. The following predictions will surely change by the time June 9, 2006, rolls around, but we'll take a crack at it anyway.
Group A
Germany
Costa Rica
Poland
Ecuador
Analysis: Klinsmann looked like he just ate the canary when the ESPN cameras flashed upon him. Of course, this easy draw will only give reason to the German press to fully expect nine points from the three matches. The big question here is whether Costa Rica or Ecuador finishes at the bottom of the group. I say it's the Ticos.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. Germany, 2. Poland, 3. Ecuador, 4. Costa Rica
Group B
England
Paraguay
Trinidad & Tobago
Sweden
Analysis: During the ESPN2 broadcast, Wynalda said that "this could be his World Cup," when referring to English striker Wayne Rooney. He's right. In this group, he could pile up enough goals to run away with the Golden Boot.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. England, 2. Sweden, 3. Paraguay, 4. Trinidad & Tobago
Group C
Argentina
Ivory Coast
Serbia & Montenegro
Holland
Analysis: The Argentina-Holland match should be the highlight of the first two weeks of the tournament when the two superpowers meet in Frankfurt on June 21 in a rematch of their 1978 World Cup final. If there is a wrench to be thrown into the mix, it'll come from Ivory Coast. The underrated African nation hopes to pull a "Senegal" and knock off one of these pre-tournament favorites while riding the back of Chelsea striker Didier Drogba, who is very familiar with most of the Dutch players.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. Holland, 2. Argentina, 3. Ivory Coast, 4. Serbia & Montenegro
Group D
Mexico
Iran
Angola
Portugal
Analysis: Portugal once again gets drawn into a group with a strong CONCACAF side. This time around, though, they won't have to play against their strongest opponent until the third match, which should help their cause tremendously. Keep an eye on Iran's Ali Karimi, the 2004 Asian Player of the Year.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. Portugal, 2. Mexico, 3. Iran, 4. Angola
Group E
Italy
Ghana
United States
Czech Republic
Analysis: Three of the top 12 teams in the FIFA rankings will battle it out in this one. Five points might go a long way here, as none of these teams are emerging with nine points. One factor that will certainly play a part in which teams move on to the next round will be goal-differential, so it'll be important for the two European teams and the U.S. to pile up goals against Ghana's "Black Stars."
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. Italy, 2. Czech Republic, 3. United States, 4. Ghana
Group F
Brazil
Croatia
Australia
Japan
Analysis: This has to be the most unique group of the eight. Each of these sides plays a different style, which should result in some very interesting matches. Of course, none of those matches should result in a Brazil loss or tie. But the fight for second place should be epic. Japan is a much-improved national team; Australia has a lot of bite, not to mention an inferiority complex; and Croatia has, in addition to the ugliest uniforms of the 32 nations, been close to the Promised Land before, having finished third in 1998. It'll warm many hearts to think of how much fun it'll be to watch the Croatian players trying to rough up the dancing Brazilians stars.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. Brazil, 2. Croatia, 3. Japan, 4. Australia
Group G
France
Switzerland
Korea Republic
Togo
Analysis: You have the country that everyone loves to hate (France) and the one that nobody hates (Switzerland). The most intriguing thing about this group is how the Korea Republic follows up on their semifinal berth in the last World Cup. It'll be a lot more difficult for the Taeguk Warriors to accomplish such a feat away from home.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. France, 2. Korea Republic, 3. Switzerland, 4. Togo
Group H
Spain
Ukraine
Tunisia
Saudi Arabia
Analysis: Spain shouldn't have too much difficulty here. Ukraine's Andriy Shevchenko (AC Milan) is one of the best players in the world, but he stars for a team that is making its first appearance in a World Cup. Tunisia has now qualified for three straight World Cups, yet they've only won one match in nine games. Saudi Arabia could make it interesting and sneak into the Round of 16 if they can pull out a result against Spain in their final match of group play on June 23.
A ridiculously early prediction: 1. Spain, 2. Ukraine, 3. Saudi Arabia, 4. Tunisia
Marc Connolly writes for several publications. This column runs each Tuesday on MLSnet.com and Marc can be reached at marc@oakwoodsoccer.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Soccer or its clubs.
