Fantasy: Why defenders are a good bet this season

Reid, Jason, Mike and Blayne recap the first double-game week of the season and preview the Round 9 matches.

Round 9 is setting up to be a defender’s paradise in MLS Fantasy. Get ready for clean sheets as far as the eye can see. Just look at the match-ups. Many of the league’s stingiest backlines benefit from home cooking this weekend, which has been shown to make a huge difference for fantasy scores.

Sporting Kansas City -- who have allowed only three goals all season? At home. FC Dallas, arguably the league’s best team? Also at home.

Orlando City, New York Red Bulls, Seattle Sounders, too. Even the LA Galaxy -- who were dismantled last week by Seattle--have a potential bounce-back game at home against the struggling Philadelphia Union.

But how dependable are defenders in fantasy? Should you always go with three defenders or are there advantages to four- and five-man back lines? The conventional wisdom says to load up on goal-dangerous midfielders and forwards, but let’s take a look at the numbers and see what we can learn.

1. Defenders are frequent Dream Team selections

Each round, the game collects the highest-scoring players and assembles them into a Dream Team. Perhaps you’ve seen it.

Excluding the goalkeeper, each weekly Dream Team consists of 10 field players. Here’s how the Dream Teams break down, by position, after eight rounds.

Granted, the Dream Team is constrained by formation (you can’t have four forwards, for example, but you can have up to five defenders). But, even so, defenders are very well-represented in terms of Dream Team appearances--they average between four and five places.

Perhaps there’s some evidence to support a defender-heavy strategy?

2. Defenders are among the highest scorers

The Dream Team numbers told us a story, but it’s not a complete picture. We need to know reliable our defenders are -- can they bring in points on the regular? No one wants any one-point performances on his or her fantasy team.

Let’s take quick look at the top scorers in the game thus far. Notice anything interesting?

That’s right, seven of the top 22 overall scorers are defenders. (And one goalkeeper -- Tim Melia -- also made the list.) And what’s more -- the most expensive defender on that list, Matt Besler, is only $6.3, while many of the attacking players are $10 or more.

What that says to me is that you can find a lot of value in defenders, especially ones who rack up bonus points like Aaron Long and Florian Jungwirth. And since premier defenders can sometimes be $5 cheaper than an equivalent attacker, you can also get great value.

3. It’s possible to gamble on clean sheets -- and win

Anyone who loaded up on double-game week (DGW) players in Round 8 was in luck after Wednesday’s match between San Jose and New England ended scoreless. Many of the managers who finished Round 8 in triple digits had multiple DGW defenders, knowing that just one clean sheet would make the gambit worthwhile.

Similarly, picking three or more defenders from a particular team is a great way to roll the dice and net yourself a huge haul.

Based on that, I’m going in on Sporting KC this weekend to give Real Salt Lake a donut. Barring any injuries, my five-man back line will be Jimmy Medranda, Besler, Seth Sinovic, Long, and Joevin Jones. (My goalkeeper is Melia.)

I love this approach because I have five high-potential guys, but I still have a lot of cash to spend on elite attackers. And I feel great about Sporting KC’s chances to keep it tight at the back and emerge with a clean sheet.

I may go back to a three- or four-man back line in the future, but the Round 9 matchups are just too good.

Now, I play the waiting game.

How many defenders are you starting this weekend? Any teams you think are a lock for a clean sheet? Let us know in the comments below.