Fantasy: Are defenders the value play in 2017?

Travis Luscombe

The 2017 season started off with a bang, as the Portland Timbers welcomed MLS expansion side Minnesota United FC to Major League Soccer by routing them 5-1. After opening night, goals were a little harder to come by, as the other 10 matches produced a total of 14 goals and nine clean sheets.

Since clean sheets have been upgraded from four to five points in MLS Fantasy this season, most of you probably felt the boost in your Round 1 score. With that change and the decrease in price for defenders, is it finally time to start thinking about playing more than three defenders?

Let’s take a look at exactly how each of the positions fared in Round 1 compared to their average scores from last year. I’ve only included matches with 60 or more minutes played in my charts, as otherwise the clean sheet bonuses don’t come into play:

Fantasy: Are defenders the value play in 2017? - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/fantasy-graph-1.png

The midfielders and forwards are off to a start that’s slightly behind 2016’s numbers, but I expect them to perform better as the season progresses and the teams start to gel. However, the interesting thing to note here is that not only did the goalkeepers and defenders increase by over one point per game, but their average scores were well above the attacking positions. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but it’s definitely worth considering adding a fourth defender to your starting XI if this trend continues.

Another big reason why you may want to consider a four-man back line is that the defenders now seem to be the premier value play in MLS Fantasy. Now that the top-tier defenders only cost $6.5 million in fantasy budget, the top value players are almost exclusively defenders:

2016 Top 20 Players, Points Per Game Per $

Player	Position	Team	PPG	Average cost	PPG/$
Marlon Hairston	DEF	COL	6.9	5.3	1.31
Dave Romney	DEF	LA	5.6	5.1	1.11
Patrick Mullins	FWD	DC	6.7	6.5	1.02
Dominique Badji	FWD	COL	4.6	4.6	1.02
Jack Harrison	MID	NYC	5.6	5.9	0.96
RJ Allen	DEF	NYC	5.1	5.3	0.95
Alex Muyl	MID	NY	4.5	4.7	0.95
Justen Glad	DEF	RSL	4.7	5.0	0.94
Mauro Manotas	FWD	HOU	5.7	6.1	0.94
Khiry Shelton	FWD	NYC	5.4	5.8	0.93
Sean Davis	MID	NY	5.6	6.2	0.91
Ola Kamara	FWD	CLB	7.7	8.6	0.90
Axel Sjoberg	DEF	COL	5.3	5.9	0.89
Jordan Hamilton	FWD	TOR	4.4	5.0	0.89
Juan Agudelo	FWD	NE	7.3	8.3	0.88
Walker Zimmerman	DEF	DAL	5.6	6.5	0.87
Daniel Steres	DEF	LA	4.6	5.3	0.87
Patrick Nyarko	MID	DC	6.3	7.3	0.86
Atiba Harris	DEF	DAL	4.9	5.7	0.86
Jonathan Campbell	DEF	CHI	4.4	5.1	0.86

(Five match minimum)

2017 Top 20 Players, Points Per Game Per $

Player	Position	Team	Points	Cost	PPG/$
Tim Melia	GK	SKC	14	5.5	2.55
Christian Dean	DEF	VAN	11	4.5	2.44
Jared Watts	DEF	COL	13	5.5	2.36
Nick Rimando	GK	RSL	14	6.0	2.33
Zac MacMath	GK	COL	10	4.5	2.22
Joe Bendik	GK	ORL	11	5.0	2.20
Eriq Zavaleta	DEF	TOR	11	5.0	2.20
Anibal Godoy	MID	SJ	15	7.0	2.14
Nick Lima	DEF	SJ	9	4.5	2.00
Oguchi Onyewu	DEF	PHI	9	4.5	2.00
Tim Parker	DEF	VAN	10	5.0	2.00
Chris Wingert	DEF	RSL	9	4.5	2.00
Axel Sjoberg	DEF	COL	12	6.5	1.85
Drew Moor	DEF	TOR	11	6.0	1.83
Clint Irwin	GK	TOR	10	5.5	1.82
Jonathan Spector	DEF	ORL	10	5.5	1.82
Jose Aja	DEF	ORL	9	5.9	1.80
Tony Beltran	DEF	RSL	9	5.0	1.80
Jimmy Medranda	DEF	SKC	9	5.0	1.80
Ike Opara	DEF	SKC	9	5.0	1.80

You can see that for every fantasy million you spend on a defender that picks up a clean sheet, you’re potentially going to get two points per game per million spent, where even the top performers in 2016 barely cracked one PPG/$. Finding the Christian Deans and Jared Watts out there is going to be key to maximizing your score within your fantasy budget this season.