Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 1 of the 2017 MLS season

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Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 1 of the 2017 MLS season -


LISTEN: The ExtraTime Radio Extravaganza (five shows, five days) is complete! We've previewed the Eastern Conference, talked MLS broadcasting with John Strong, gone behind the scenes of the referee world with Peter Walton and Alan Kelly and given the Western Conference a good once over. Last but not least, the guys go around the table to give their 2017 MLS predictions. Subscribe so you don't miss a show!


I've written a million columns in the past 10 days, and have no more ledes left in me. You'll get nothing and like it.


So it begins...




Nothing Stays the Same


Two years ago, Orlando City and NYCFC kicked off their debut seasons against each other. In the 24 months since then, both teams have changed coaches, changed styles, changed formations, changed most of the roster, and to a great extent they've changed approaches to roster building.


Primarily, both are now aiming younger. KakĂ¡, Andrea Pirlo and David Villa are all endangered species.


As great as they are, I think it's a very good thing that two of MLS's biggest-spending teams have bought into the youth movement. There are a horde of 25-and-under players on each team who will be essential to either of these teams making the playoffs in 2017, and the one with the highest profile is third-year forward Cyle Larin – the one constant for the Purple Lions since they entered MLS.


Larin avoided the sophomore slump, even though his goals-per-90 did take a slight dip. I suspect his third year will see him out-perform his rookie total of 17 goals, and I think a formation change is going to play a big part in why:



That's Designated PlayerCarlos Rivas feeding Larin for a preseason goal, and it looks very much like those two will finally begin a true forward partnership in 2017, which should be mutually beneficial. They're well balanced in terms of where they like to operate on the field and on-the-ball skillsets, and they have KakĂ¡ behind them. I am excited by all of this.


NYCFC probably aren't. They'll get a taste on Sunday (5 pm ET | ESPN in USA, MLS LIVE in Canada) as OCSC open their brand new stadium.


I'll also be watching: The Tommy McNamara/Maxi Moralez chemistry for NYCFC. I think (but am nowhere close to sure) that McNamara will nominally start as a winger with Moralez in central midfield, but I suspect that they will have free rein to swap positions on the fly as much as possible.




Line Up


Formations aren't tactics, and tactics aren't formations, but both influence the other. And lineups influence both, and both influence lineups – "team selection" is what I mean – and I'm kind of at a loss with Atlanta United right now. The line I'd use is "spoiled for choice" in attack.


The big decision for me? Play Kenwyne Jones as a target forward with four other attackers buzzing off of him in a 4-3-3, including Josef Martinez inverted on the left; or play Martinez in the central striker role with Jones on the bench and Yamil Asad inverted on the left.


Jones and Martinez play the role of the center forward very differently. Martinez is quicker, faster and more dangerous with his movement off the ball in the box, while Jones is a true target who excels at bringing the rest of the guys into the play, and can act as an outlet if/when the midfield starts to lose its flow.


Martinez spent the whole preseason getting behind the defense of just about everybody Atlanta played, and he's a very good finisher on the break:



The problem is Atlanta didn't really play anyone in preseason – that Sounders team they trounced comprised mostly reserves, USL kids and trialists. The rest of their wins were also, for the most part, against lower-level teams, so it's hard to get a real feeling for just how devastating this attack actually will be out of the gates.


Regardless, Martinez probably makes sense as the starter in Atlanta's franchise debut on Sunday (7:30 pm ET | FS1 in USA, MLS LIVE in Canada) against the Red Bulls. RBNY, even when they're humming, will give up opportunities on the break. 


I'll also be watching: Squad rotation! New York have just two days of rest because of Thursday night's CCL game in Vancouver. Expect Jesse Marsch to go deep into his reserves.




One more thing:

Rise to the moment.


Happy weekending, folks.