Armchair Analyst: Home teams hold form in Leg 1 and Vieira gets a lesson

Matthew Doyle

Early this morning I asked the smartest soccer person I know what he thought would happen in today's games, the first legs of the conference semifinals of the Audi 2016 MLS Cup Playoffs.

"Four 1-0 home wins," was his answer.

He went 2-for-4, which is actually a pretty remarkable hit rate given how unpredictable MLS can be. And I'll add this: All four road teams missed a huge opportunity given the relative worth of road goals in these two-leg, aggregate series. Even FC Dallas, down 3-1, would have a pretty decent shot going into the second leg.

But down 3-0? I'm writing the obit for their season already. So let's start there, in Seattle:

Absolutely Curtains

Most of us in the editorial chat spent the first half trying to figure out the movement of Seattle's No. 10, Nicolas Lodeiro:

This is why talking tactics is fun for me – I literally don't know if Lodeiro's deeper starting points were purposeful, or simply how the game unfolded. Either way it set the tone for a second half of the Sounders getting out on the break and, time and again, threatening (then breaching) the Dallas backline.

Lodeiro's movement is a big part of that since he has the most relative gravity of anybody on the field, but this isn't a viable option without the speed of Jordan Morris on the flanks. Morris is so blazingly fast, and has become so clever about how he uses that speed, that he naturally pushes opposing backlines a few yards deeper.

This is a weapon even when he's not making or receiving passes. When the defense is on the back foot like that, and always worrying about the space in behind, they're not squeezing the game through midfield. When the game's not being squeezed through midfield, Lodeiro (and Cristian Roldan and Ozzie Alonso, both of whom were really good) have more time to pick their passes and eventually pick the game apart.

By the way: Greg was right not to like Lodeiro so deep, even if it did serve a purpose. Obviously the fact that he had two goals shows the practicality of getting him into the box, and obviously it's that second goal in particular – the one where he was literally bursting through the lines like a winger – that basically salted away the series. Even now that Nelson Valdez has turned into a clinical finisher ( ¯\(ツ)/¯ ) Seattle's attack can still be less than compelling in front of net, and Lodeiro's presence is necessary.

Beyond that, I'd even go so far as to say "decisive." Seattle have written a remarkable story since he arrived, and it doesn't look like ending any time soon.

Goodbye Blue Sky

The gamble that Patrick Vieira made by choosing the lineup he did and the personnel he did was that NYCFC could defend deep and flood the box, and in so doing slow down the Reds attack from open play. This was catenaccio, "the right of the weak" to destroy any flow in the game and just play for the result. Conceptually and from a sporting perspective, this is fine, and arguably the right choice.

However, given the value of away goals, and NYCFC's away form, and Toronto's recent defensive weaknesses, and TFC being on just three days of rest, and the way that NYCFC have played all season on the road... I really don't get it. Vieira's been a shining beacon of beautiful ideology all season long, but he asked his team to be something they aren't in this one, and they paid for it.

To express it Lord Kelvin-style: Their 353 attempted passes was their third-lowest number of the season, and that's because they conceded so much of the tempo, and so much of the way the game was played to Toronto FC. Their 244 completed passes was their second-lowest number of the season, as was their five chances created from open play.

They invited a pretty grateful team in red to set up shop:

Almost 40 percent of the game was played in NYCFC's defensive third. For any group, that's tough. But for a group that commits a ton of fouls, and then has no real clue of how to defend the subsequent restarts, and for a group that struggles against crosses of all sorts... the eventual result felt like a fait accompli.

This was NYCFC trying to play like somebody else today, and getting punished for it. The game is an absolutely spectacular teacher for young coaches.

Welcome to the Machine

Throughout this season the Colorado Rapids have had the league's best defense for a couple of reasons. First and foremost is that there are no heroes out there, save for Jermaine Jones – the rest of their guys fill a specific role, play hard and just make the right, fundamentally sound play time after time after time. It's a great building block.

Second is that they don't get spread out. This is a direct offshoot of No. 1, and it's all-important for a team that doesn't scramble particularly well in their own end, as the day's lone goal showed:

What an assist from Jelle Van Damme @LAGalaxy open up the scoring. #LAvCOL https://t.co/33wxvUd9eG
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 30, 2016

Run Like Hell

Montreal officially put the sword to New York Red Bulls' 20-game unbeaten run across all competitions, and they did it in what I'd consider to be "veteran, Italian" style. They defended deep and compact, they absolutely refused to let New York build through the middle, and they were clinical the one time they got into the open field on a counterattack.

More important than that, however, was the fact that the Impact kept a clean sheet. This was the first time New York had been shut out since July, and the story behind that was pretty straight-forward: Montreal arrayed their entire central midfield around RBNY playmaker Sacha Kljestan. They sold out completely to shut him down, and obviously it worked – as pointed out by our own Ben Baer, this is the first time all year Kljestan went 90 and didn't create a single chance.

Essentially, this means Mauro Biello was daring the rest of the New York attack to crack his defense open. Essentially, New York did:

#RBNY with a golden chance in extra time. #MTLvNY https://t.co/vY3U3rpytI
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 30, 2016

(Gonzalo Veron, who set up that chance above, was the best RBNY attacker on the day, and I'd expect him to get more minutes in Leg 2.)

Of course the most essential part of the game is finishing plays off, and Bradley Wright-Phillips didn't manage it. Biello's gamble proved to be the right one.

Which leads me to the "veteran, Italian" statement above. It was Matteo Mancosu's goal that provided the difference between the two teams, with what will surely be the most clinical strike of the postseason by anybody, and it was Marco Donadel who provided the ball over the top for Mancosu to smash home. To borrow a line, "If you had one shot, or one opportunity..."

Mancosu lost the New York defense, lost himself in the moment, and won the game for the Impact. It was a counterpuncher's finish and a counterpuncher's script executed to perfection.

Don't expect things to look any different next Sunday at Red Bull Arena, even if Didier Drogba is available. It took months and months for Montreal to rediscover the fact that they're best when they are who they were back in March.

As November arrives, the onus is on RBNY to figure out a solution.

Friendly reminder from /r/MLS to never skip leg day...

A few more things to ponder...

6. The one question I have regarding Montreal's lineup next weekend is whether Donny Toia will get brought in for Hassoun Camara. Toia's one of the best 1v1 defenders in the league at fullback, and if Veron is given serious minutes by the Red Bulls, Toia should be out there to try to contain him.

5. New York's shape was almost comedically symmetrical:

Also: Seven of 10 field players having their aggregate touch across the midfield stripe is a lot. They'll likely have to do the same next weekend, since you can be sure that Montreal will sit back and counterpunch.

4. Baggio Husidic missed two passes all night. Completion percentage isn't everything – it's not even necessarily anything – but the Rapids have to do a better job of disrupting him and Lletget next week.

3. Eriq Zavaleta, who I've been more than a little critical of over the last two months, had his best game since the summer. He was mistake-free at the back, his distribution ranged from appropriate to good, and he was able to keep up with the NYCFC attack in space.

I still remain a little mystified as to why they didn't go at him and Steven Beitashour a little bit more, and the complete absence of Tommy McNamara. NYCFC's best moments this year have come when combining up their own left-hand side and some combo of McNamara, David Villa and Ronald Matarrita would have been very tough for the Zavaleta/Beitashour combo to deal with.

The lack of Andrea Pirlo to spread the game out in midfield was a hindrance, and some minor tactical changes were understandable. It wasn't a reason to toss out the whole organizational philosophy, however.

2. Man of the Match in that TFC game, though, was Michael Bradley. Forget the counting stats (though he had plenty of those). Rather, it was his ability to track back and shut down NYCFC's quick, 1v1 attackers in transition that was key to Toronto keeping their defensive shape:

Bradley's 1v1 defense in space vs. quick attackers was phenomenal today -- best it's been all year.https://t.co/d7oedLq72I
— Matthew Doyle (@MLSAnalyst) October 31, 2016

Bradley is a legitimately great d-mid – there's a reason AC Milan and others are sniffing around, and there's a reason why the USMNT's recent record with him in that spot is so far superior to the rest of the Jurgen Klinsmann era. For all his strengths (distribution, vision, keeping the game in front of him, knowing how to shield the defense against combo play), though, this kind of play is not one of them. He's not usually like Osvaldo Alonso or Dax McCarty in these situations, and he can be unbalanced by tricky dribblers.

Not today.

1. Dallas's year isn't quite done yet but I still feel the need to remind folks of this: They have had a spectacular season. Even if they lose this series 15-0 it's been a spectacular year: