Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 33

Most of the work has been done, and we're now less than 10 days away from the conclusion of the 2016 MLS season. It's time to see who has a finishing kick – who can claim those last few playoff spots, who can secure home-field advantage, who can get their hands on a Supporters' Shield.

These next few days really, really matter. Let's look at the games:

Ready to Start

We'll also see who the MVP is. I personally think it comes down to either Sebastian Giovinco and David Villa mostly because the RBNY duo of Bradley Wright-Phillips and Sacha Kljestan will justifiably split that team's vote. Out West the best contender is Mauro Diaz, but he lacks the raw, boxscore stats of those other four... so here we are.

And here Giovinco is, likely back into the lineup for Toronto FC ahead of Sunday's trip to Montreal (3 pm ET; ESPN in the US | TSN2 & RDS in Canada).

Giovinco hasn't played since late August – coincidentally in a 1-0 loss to Montreal the last time these teams met. In his five-game injury absence TFC have gone 1-3-1 and while that's not horrible, it's been bad enough to eliminate them from the Shield race. They really did have it in their grasp at the start of September, but pretty clearly let it get away.

So what do we expect? Frankly, I think he walks right back into the lineup and Toronto rediscover their attack. He has a combined 29 goals and assists (16g/13a), which is still best in the league despite missing a month. He's still the most dangerous free kick taker in MLS. He's still the league's top creator of glorious chances:

"Big chances" are a stat Opta tracks. They are, essentially, chances that should be scored by their reckoning, and Giovinco is pretty obviously a wizard. They have badly missed his goals of course, but they've also missed his creativity. That's especially crucial for a team with only one other top-tier finisher (Jozy Altidore), who also happens to be second on the club in big chance creation. With Giovinco out it's been easier and easier for teams to focus on Altidore, and that's led to a raft of half-chances and few clear-cut looks for the Reds.

So here's my stand: I still think Giovinco is the MVP for 2016, but my mind can be changed over the next two games depending upon what Villa or one of the RBNY group does. A standout performance on the road, in a derby, with the (potential) chance to move into the top two in the conference is exactly where and when an MVP should shine.

I'll also be watching: You may notice Ignacio Piatti up on that above list as well. Piatti's been brilliant for most of the season, but has generally saved his best showings for when he's played on the left wing and can run off of a center forward. That's exactly what's happened in their last two outings – and yes, he's been the best player on the field in both.

Also worth noting is that's right where TFC have struggled over the past month, ever since Eriq Zavaleta melted down against RBNY. If Montreal can draw Toronto right back Steven Beitashour upfield and force Zavaleta (or maybe Nick Hagglund?) to come and defend in space, Piatti could have a field day.

Intervention

It feels very much like the end of days for Sporting KC, who travel to RSL on Sunday (5 pm ET; MLS LIVE) in dire need of... something different. SKC have one win in their last five, and two in their last eight, and their issues are myriad and sundry: There is still no secondary scoring threat alongside Dom Dwyer; the defense is still error-prone; the high press and midfield are far less suffocating than the recent past; chance creation is at a premium.

And so it goes. Things are so tough in KC that Peter Vermes has even switched away from the dedicated 4-3-3 he's used almost exclusively since the 2010 season, spending some time tinkering with a 4-4-2 diamond.

Still, SKC are definitively a 4-3-3 team. Here's their network passing graph from last month's 2-2 draw against the Galaxy:

This was almost certainly Sporting's best game of recent vintage, and it's almost certain that you can see the problem: Even when they play well, Dwyer (#14) is out on an island with only one guy (Benny Feilhaber, No. 10) giving consistent service. There's not much in terms of combination play from the other attackers, and that's reduced SKC to either through-balls or crosses.

I'll also be watching: Where's Javier Morales getting the ball? When he has to track back and pick up the ball deep, RSL are way less effective. When he's able to get on the ball in the final third, he looks – for long stretches – like the JaviMo of old.

You Already Know

If this Colorado Rapids team wins the Shield, they'll be the most unlikely winners in league history – surpassing even the 2012 Earthquakes. That Quakes team led the league in goals scored (they were an accidental juggernaut), while this Rapids team has done it with a totally different plan: They are the best defensive team in the league.

That they've managed as much with a rotating cast of defenders (Axel Sjoberg is the only "write his name in ink" starter on the backline), a midseason goalkeeper change, and a bunch of unheralded pieces playing vital roles says quite a bit about the outsize role "chemistry" plays in MLS. The Rapids have it, they rely on it, and it has them in position to quite possibly take home some silverware.

Let's not overlook, however, that they can ball a little bit:

Colorado have become more dangerous as Pablo Mastroeni has put more trust in the likes of Dominique Badji, Marlon Hairston and Dillon Powers, and on Thursday night Kevin Doyle made a timely return to the lineup.

On Sunday, they can take a huge step toward the club's first Shield by going to Portland (5 pm ET; ESPN in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada) and quite possibly eliminating last year's MLS Cup winners.

I can't imagine the odds you could've gotten on that at the start of the year.

I'll also be watching:Darlington Nagbe. I think we're all interested in seeing how he responds after missing out on this most recent USMNT camp.

Details matter.

Happy weekending, everybody.