Red Line Report: Sounders now favorites to grab West's final playoff spot

Red Line Report - DL image

After a big win on Sunday, the Seattle Sounders are in the driver's seat for the Western Conference's final playoff spot.


Seattle now sit on 38 points, just three points behind the sixth-place Portland Timbers – with two games in hand. The Timbers play two of their three remaining games on the road, where they have not won in MLS competition this year.


The Sounders will have a chance to put themselves above the red line on Wednesday when they face the Chicago Fire (10:30 pm ET, MLS LIVE). As of Wednesday, ESPN's Soccer Power Index gives the Sounders a 60-percent chance to make the playoffs.

Another team that significantly improved their playoff chances over the weekend is D.C. United. Their 4-1 win against Orlando City SC moved them above the red line, at 37 points to New England's 36. They hold a game in hand on New England, which will be played on Wednesday night against Columbus Crew SC (7:30 pm ET, MLS LIVE), who sit five points behind United.


If the regular season ended today ...


Eastern Conference Playoff Bracket


Conference Semifinals


1. New York Red Bulls


Conference Semifinals


2. Toronto FC




Knockout Round


3. New York City FC


VS.


6. D.C. United


Knockout Round


4. Philadelphia Union


VS.


5. Montreal Impact


Western Conference Playoff Bracket


Conference Semifinals


1. FC Dallas


Conference Semifinals


2. Colorado Rapids




Knockout Round


3. LA Galaxy


VS.


6. Portland Timbers


Knockout Round


4. Real Salt Lake


VS.


5. Sporting Kansas City


Strength of Schedule and Expected Points


The strength of schedule metric takes into account the average points per game (PPG) that each team's opponents earn at home and on the road. The lower the PPG, the easier the schedule.


For example, if FC Dallas traveled to play the LA Galaxy, who have averaged 2.5 PPG at home, and then hosted the Vancouver Whitecaps, who have averaged 1.53 PPG on the road, their opponents' PPG would be 2.02.


The Expected Points metric is strictly based off of what teams have done up to this point. For example, New York City FC have collected 1.69 points per game at home this season and 1.40 on the road. So if they continue averaging those totals, with five more home games left and four more road games, they would be expected to collect 52.49 points.


Here are both the Strength of Schedule and Expected Points rankings for each conference:

Red Line Report: Sounders now favorites to grab West's final playoff spot - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/East-SOS-9-27.jpg
TEAM
EXPECTED POINTS
Toronto FC
54.95
New York Red Bulls
53.48
New York City FC
52.49
Philadelphia Union
46.61
Montreal Impact
43.07
D.C. United
41.93
New England Revolution
40.02
Orlando City SC
38.53
Columbus Crew SC
36.21
Chicago Fire
31.00
Red Line Report: Sounders now favorites to grab West's final playoff spot - https://league-mp7static.mlsdigital.net/images/West-SOS-9-27.jpg
TEAM
EXPECTED POINTS
FC Dallas
58.72
Colorado Rapids
56.99
LA Galaxy
52.20
Real Salt Lake
48.80
Sporting Kansas City
46.61
Seattle Sounders
45.09
Portland Timbers
43.99
San Jose Earthquakes
39.34
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
38.68
Houston Dynamo
38.05