ESPN soccer stats guru Paul Carr released some interesting numbers on Thursday afternoon, dumping a whole slew of playoff odds for all 20 MLS clubs in an ESPN Insider piece.
Carr released the ESPN Soccer Power Index projections for the MLS Cup Playoffs, top-two seeds in each conference and Supporters’ Shield. He tweeted out a few of the projections, most notably releasing his playoff odds for each conference based on ESPN's Soccer Power Index, a regression-based algorithm designed to predict soccer matches and competitions, based on past results and future schedules.
According to the SPI, five of the East’s six playoff berths are basically wrapped up, while four of the six postseason places out West are all but in the bag:
Two of the teams’ battling it out for one of the final two spots in the West will meet on Saturday, when the ninth-place Seattle Sounders will host the seventh-place Vancouver Whitecaps (4 pm ET; MLS LIVE in the US, TSN1 in Canada). Carr revealed how that match could affect each teams’ playoff hopes, driving home that either club would be essentially eliminated from contention with a loss at CenturyLink Field.
Carr didn’t just focus on the bottom of the conferences. He also took a look at the hugely important battle for the top-two seeds in each conference. As of now, Toronto FC and FC Dallas look like near locks to avoid the Knockout Round of the playoffs, with a few other squads holding a solid shot at claiming a top-two spot and receiving a first-round bye.
Carr’s Supporters’ Shield projections can be found in his full Insider piece, which is available to those with an ESPN Insider or ESPN The Magazine subscription.
