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No domestic treble's ever been done in the history of this league -- no continental treble either, for that matter -- but we're now officially at a part of the season in which we can seriously talk about FC Dallas or Toronto FC breaking new ground. TFC, remember, won the Canadian Championship back in early summer, while Dallas claimed the US Open Cup title with a blindingly brilliant attacking display in their 4-2 win over New England.
Our friends over at AmericanSoccerAnalysis have TFC as slight favorites to complete the second leg of their journey, winning the Supporters' Shield in 36.15% of simulations. Dallas, who have a less friendly schedule down the stretch, including Saturday's trip to NYCFC (7 pm ET; MLS LIVE) are second on the board at 28.88%.
Let's dive into the weekend's big games:
YYZ
TFC are actually five points behind Dallas in the Shield chase. The fact that they're favorites comes down to three things: That tough FCD schedule I mentioned; the fact that the Reds have a game in hand; and the fact that five of Toronto's remaining six games are at BMO Field.
This is their chance to turn home field into a fortress. Step one comes Sunday (5 pm ET; FOX in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada) when they host a Red Bulls team that's won just twice all season away from Red Bull Arena, and will be playing at least partially on short rest in the wake of Thursday's CONCACAF Champions League contest against Alianza.
Things are setting up nicely for TFC. When that happens, Reds fans rightfully wait for the other shoe to drop.
To wit, each of Toronto's last three "bad" results have come with at least a one-man advantage. They lost 1-0 at home to Montreal three weeks ago playing a man up for more than half. They drew 1-1 at Houston two weeks before that, again with a man advantage for just more than 45 minutes. And if you go back to mid-July you'll find one of the shocking results of the season, a 2-1 loss at San Jose in which TFC played 11-v-9 for the game's final 40 minutes.
They were too willing to settle for low percentage crosses in that one:
Each of those red arrows is an incomplete pass. A full-strength RBNY certainly won't allow that much purchase to the TFC attack, but it does speak to one of the weaknesses of this Toronto team: They will, occasionally, choose the first pass you present to them instead of taking the time to break you down with combination play.
Houston exploited that to a good extent, as did Montreal. New York will as well, since those hurried choices lead to quick turnovers, and quick turnovers ramp the tempo up to a sprint, and that plays directly into RBNY's hands. Even if it's 90 yards from goal, RBNY can take the wrong pass and turn it into a goal with very few touches.
Toronto no doubt understand that.
I'll also be watching:Mike Grella. He hasn't scored in three months, and has pretty clearly been pressing hard for a goal in his last few appearances. RBNY need him to get hot again if they have any hope of defending their Shield.
The Pass
There were three things that made Benny Feilhaber a Best XI-caliber player in 2013, 2014 and 2015:
- The ability to receive the ball in traffic, evade the defense and make a positive play
- The willingness to do the dirty work on both sides of the ball
- The ability to complete through balls as well as anyone in the league
Feilhaber is still one of the hardest-working No. 10s in the league in possession. He still receives and attempts roughly as many passes in 2016 as he did in the previous three years, which is a crucial and underrated aspect of any playmaker's game -- he's still willing to get into the toughest spots on the field and take a beating to receive passes.
Other than that, however, Feilhaber has slipped in 2016. His measurable defensive actions -- recoveries, tackles and interceptions -- have dropped by nearly a third, and that's been part of why his ability to complete through balls has fallen off a cliff:
This is brutal, and goes a long way toward explaining the problems Sporting KC have had this year generating consistent game-breaking plays. Because he's winning the ball less frequently in midfield he's getting fewer chances to open teams up in a quick transition. That's the part that's on his shoulders.
Beyond that, SKC simply lack the tools to be that kind of team anymore. Jacob Peterson's having a career year -- he has a career-best five goals in 1244 minutes, which isn't at all a bad return for a winger -- and he's at least willing to make those runs in behind the defense to keep backlines honest. But Peterson doesn't have the kind of wheels that put the fear of god into any given defense, and even with his nice goal total this year he's not the kind of finisher that reliably wins games. Thus he doesn't bend the defense to him, and that in turn makes it harder for the right back (usually Saad Abdul-Salaam) to get forward on the overlap.
None of the other wingers, whether it's been Graham Zusi or Brad Davis or Connor Hallisey, are any better at offering off-the-ball penetration. Those three have combined for just three goals in 2016.
And so opponents have cut down on the seams that Sporting have hit ever since Feilhaber entered the starting lineup for good in autumn of 2013. Job No. 1 is not allowing through-balls to the wingers, and they've managed it while squeezing the Sporting midfield midfield. This in turn puts the onus on SKC's fullbacks to support the midfield in possession rather than getting forward on the overlap, further cutting down on throughball options for Feilhaber or Roger Espinoza when they get a moment to breathe.
It's an ugly recipe for KC. They need to play against a team that makes mistakes, and those aren't easy to find.
They'll likely get no purchase in that regard on Sunday against LA (2 pm ET; FOX in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada). The teams have met twice already this season, producing a 1-1 draw in May and a scoreless draw in June.
LA's first order of business on the road is always the same: Sit deep and don't let the attack get in behind. SKC will once again have to do it the hard way.
I'll also be watching: The Sebastian Lletget experiment at central midfield. I'm kind of lukewarm on him there since he tends to dawdle on the ball, but he had some brilliant moments last weekend vs. Orlando City.
Freewill
Clint Dempseytrained with the Sounders this week. Three hours later the team said they're "cautiously optimistic" Deuce could make his return to the lineup before season's end.
Obviously soccer issues -- playoff race issues -- take a back seat to his health. So just understand that all of the following analysis comes with the disclaimer "but it means nothing compared to the player's long-term health."
Put simply, what the Sounders have missed most about Dempsey is the freedom his on-the-field presence allowed playmaker Nicolas Lodeiro. With Dempsey gone Lodeiro's been even more of a target for opposing defenses, and they've done work to push him into the central channel where he can be bracketed by multiple defensive midfielders, while at the same time building a wall about 35 yards from goal and refusing to allow Lodeiro time and space to get on the ball in the final third.
To illustrate, here's Lodeiro's passing map from the 2-1 win over RSL last month:
Green arrows are completed passes, red incomplete and yellow are key passes (passes that lead to a shot). Blue is an assist.
There are a couple of obvious clusters where Lodeiro did work, but what really stands out is just how much of the field he covers. Dude was everywhere.
Here's last week's map from the 1-1 draw vs. San Jose:
He still covers a lot of the field, but nowhere near as much as he did when Dempsey was present to A) drag defenders away from him, and B) act as an auxiliary No. 10. Deuce isn't a playmaker by any stretch, but he can wear the hat for a minute here or there -- just enough time for Lodeiro to do work off the ball and unbalance opposing defenders.
It was brutal stuff for backlines to try to shackle. Now it's less brutal, and much more predictable.
Lodeiro's awesome so he still had the game-tying goal against San Jose, but Seattle will need more than just a one-man show on Saturday when they host Vancouver (4 pm ET; MLS LIVE in the US | TSN1 in Canada) in a game dripping with playoff implications out West.
If the Sounders lose, their season is almost certainly done.
I'll also be watching:Erik Hurtado took it on the chin two weeks ago when he missed a boatload of chances in a 1-0 loss to RBNY. He's scored two goals in the two games since then, one in the 3-1 win at Columbus and the other in the 2-1 CCL win at SKC that clinched Vancouver's berth in that competition's quarterfinals.
I doubt Hurtado is ever going to compete for a Golden Boot, but I love forwards who repeatedly find high-quality chances. The act of doing so is a repeatable skill, and the type of thing that can stabilize a previously sputtering attack.
We may be seeing the genesis of that very thing for Vancouver right now.
One more thing:
Happy weekending, everybody.
