Way back in March, after the US national team took care of Guatemala in a must-not-lose game in Columbus, I wrote that the Jurgen Klinsmann and Co. had effectively booked their place at the 2018 World Cup.
No, they hadn’t yet qualified for the Hexagonal, let alone gone over the yet-to-be-cleared hurdles of squaring up with Mexico, Costa Rica and Honduras in Central America. But the 4-0 win against Guatemala meant that the Americans had essentially made it through the semifinal round of CONCACAF qualifying, which, although it features significantly weaker opposition, is less forgiving than the Hex.
I know, you think I’m crazy. But think back to this spring. The US were bad – really bad – in one match, falling 2-0 at Guatemala on March 25. That poor outing meant the US would’ve essentially been eliminated from qualifying with a loss in the return leg against Los Chapines four days later at MAPFRE Stadium.
A home loss against Guatemala was never likely, but weird things happen in one-off situations. A defeat and an early exit from qualifying wasn’t probable, but it was an uncomfortable possibility.
Two bad games in the span of four days in the semifinal round could’ve killed the US.
Two bad games in the Hex would be a hiccup.
There’s just a lot more room for error in CONCACAF’s final round. With 10 games on the schedule, three of the six teams earning automatic berths to the World Cup and a fourth facing the fifth-place Asian finisher in a two-legged playoff for a final place in Russia, countries – especially those with as much talent relative to the rest of the confederation as the US – can afford to hit a couple of speedbumps.
So don’t go crazy when the Americans inevitably drop a couple of games in the Hex. CONCACAF road contests are tough. The US will almost certainly lose a couple. They’ll probably look pretty bad in at least one.
But they’ll have time – and five games at home, where they’re 21-1-3 since the Hex came into play in the 1998 cycle – to get things right. Barring something catastrophic, they’ll qualify for Russia.
Where they’ll finish is a different question. Just what might their path look like? Let’s take a peek:
Nov. 11, 2016 – USA vs. Mexico – MAPFRE Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
After the US beat Trinidad and Tobago on Tuesday night, US Soccer Federation president Sunil Gulati confirmed what we all already knew: The Hex opener against Mexico will be in Columbus.
With the US playing well at the moment, Mexico in somewhat of a state of flux and the ghosts of so many Dos a Cero’s past ready to come to roost in Ohio, I expect the US to win this one. It’ll be tough – matches against Mexico always are – but there’s just something about this game, isn’t there?
Nov. 15, 2016 – USA at Costa Rica
This is a tough, tough spot for the US. Not only are they 0-5-0 at Costa Rica all-time in the Hex, but they’ll be facing Los Ticos just four days after what will surely be a draining encounter against Mexico. I think the physical and emotional capital spent against El Tri, the long trip to Costa Rica and the difficult environment in San Jose will prove to be too much for the Americans, who I see losing this one.
March 24, 2017 – USA vs. Honduras
Honduras are always feisty, but I’m not convinced this edition of Los Catrachos is as strong as the teams they’ve fielded in the past two World Cup cycles. That, coupled with the US’s general dominance against Honduras at home, have me predicting a US win in this match.
March 28, 2017 – USA vs. Panama
They’ll face some serious travel after hosting Honduras, but I think the Panama match is a great chance for the US to steal a road point. The Americans famously beat Los Canaleros in Panama City in the last Hex, ending their World Cup dreams with a couple of late goals in the San Zusi game. Panama, who play at Trinidad and Tobago on March 24, will be gunning for all three points, but I see the Americans pulling out a draw to move to 2-1-1 through their first four matches.
June 9, 2017 – USA vs. Trinidad and Tobago
We all saw what happened on Tuesday, right? The US are vastly more talented than T&T. On paper, this should be the most straightforward match of the Hex. I’ll call a relatively easy three points for the US.
June 13, 2017 – Mexico vs. USA – USA at Mexico – Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Playing in June in Mexico City will always be hellish, but the US probably drew the best possible lead-in to their quadrennial Azteca qualifier in a home game against Trinidad and Tobago.
Not only should the match be less taxing than one against a more traditionally tough opponent, but with a relatively small Trinidadian ex-pat community in the States, US Soccer can feel free to schedule the T&T contest anywhere. The best possible locations would leave the US with a shorter flight to Mexico City and prep the USMNT for the Azteca’s altitude. Denver and Salt Lake would both be good bets.
Still, this is Mexico at the Azteca. The US will have a chance, but I still like El Tri to take all three points. A win in qualifying in Mexico City will have to wait another four years.
Sept. 1, 2017 – USA vs. Costa Rica
This is where things could get a little dicey. I’m predicting the US to be 3-2-1 through six games, good for 10 points and likely placing them well within the top-three. However, with a tough match at Honduras looming, this home game against Costa Rica could bring out a bit of hysteria from all of us observers. A defeat here could have serious implications.
I just don’t see the Americans losing. They dominated Costa Rica in Chicago in this summer’s Copa America Centenario and are 4-0-1 all-time against Los Ticos in the Hex. I think they’ll win this one to move to 4-2-1 heading into their final three Hex contests.
Sept. 5, 2017 – Honduras vs. USA
The US have gotten results at Honduras before, but I’ll be conservative and say they’ll fall to a desperate Catrachos team next September. San Pedro Sula is a top-three intimidating environment in CONCACAF and the Hondurans – who typically schedule qualifiers to kick in the midday heat – know how to use their home field advantage.
Oct. 6, 2017 – USA vs. Panama
Panama has been a tough out for the US at home in recent years, but I don’t see this edition bothering the USMNT too much on American soil. I think the US gets the win to improve to 16 total points in the Hex. That mark should be about enough to secure a trip to Russia – in the five previous editions of the Hex, the third-place finisher has averaged 15.6 points, only once finishing with more than 16.
Oct. 10, 2017 – USA at Trinidad and Tobago
The US have plenty of history of picking up points at T&T and, with a group title potentially on the line for the Americans and Trinidad potentially out of the running, I see them bringing home another win next October.
A full three points in Port of Spain would move the US to 6-3-1, good for 19 points and a likely top-two finish in the Hex. That’s a pretty low estimate, too – I was somewhat conservative with my picks, predicting the US to win all five of their home matches but go just 1-3-1 on the road.
Beating out Mexico for the top spot will be tough for the US – finishing ahead of three other teams to finish in the top-three shouldn’t be.
