MLS Fantasy: Look for favorable matchups, not just in-form players

If you brought in Sebastian Giovinco ($13.6) after Round 20 when he broke out of his 9-game goal drought, you were probably patting yourself on the back when he went on to score 16 in Round 21 and a monster 25 in the Round 22 double-game week.

Finding players in form is always a good idea, but keep in mind that it shouldn’t be the only factor in determining upcoming transfers. One key consideration is each team’s upcoming schedule – if a team has favorable match-ups, then it makes sense that their players are likely to produce additional fantasy points.

This week, we’re going to look at the fixtures for the next three rounds, and break down who has the best chance at extra offensive and defensive points. For offense, I’ll be taking the average goals scored for a team and averaging it with their opponent’s average goals against, factoring in whether the team is home or away in both cases. The same will be done for the defensive averages, except it will be the team’s goals allowed and its opponent’s goals scored.

Round 23:

In all 10 matchups for this week, the home team has the edge over the visitors in these calculations. The biggest gap is between FC Dallas, who have averaged over two goals per game at home, and Sporting Kansas City, who have only scored seven goals in their 12 away matches (tied for lowest in MLS). There’s always a catch, though: FC Dallas have a bye in Round 25, so if you want to bring in Mauro Díaz ($11.4) or Walker Zimmerman ($6.7), you will have to find a way to replace them in a couple of weeks.

LA Galaxy have a great fixture this week and are playing in Round 25, so you could look at bringing in Steven Gerrard ($10.5), Daniel Steres ($5.4), or Robbie Keane ($11.5) and be safe keeping them for a couple rounds.

Round 24:

There are plenty of opportunities for goals in this round. Montreal could score a bunch, especially playing at home in Stade Saputo with a well-rested Didier Drogba ($11.9) available for selection. The Colorado defense has only allowed 0.42 goals per game at home, making Axel Sjoberg ($6.1) a no-brainer any time they’re at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

Round 25:

There are only six matches in Round 25. The teams on a bye are: COL, DAL, NYC, NYR, POR, RSL, SKC, and VAN.

San Jose are second only to Colorado in allowing goals at home, so if you’re willing to pay out for Victor Bernardez ($7.7), you could get rewarded with a clean sheet in this round or in the previous one, which is also at home against Houston.

This makes two rounds in a row where Montreal show up near the top of the list, making them good targets for transfers this week or next week. Orlando City SC vs. Toronto FC has all the makings of a shoot-out, as both teams’ offenses are scoring goals at will.

Do you think any of the teams are going to defy the statistics in the next few rounds? Let me know in the comments below, and as always, good luck this week!