Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 22 of the 2016 MLS regular season

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The transfer/trade window is closed, and now the season trundles on.


A quick note on one particular Saturday match before we dig into the national TV offering on Sunday. Toronto FC host the New England Revolution (7:30 pm ET; MLS LIVE), and it marks the final outing in a four-game Reds' homestand. TFC have taken nine points from the previous three, and have largely made good on the chance to claw back some of the ground they lost in March and April thanks to a prolonged road trip to start the season and – more damaging – from a fairly disastrous four-game homestand in May when they went 1-1-2.


There was a sense of "this is the same old story" from the TFC faithful after that lousy month. Numerous times over the past decade they've seen this team in a good spot to make a run only to squander it.


I don't think that's going to be the case this time. Torontonians may have to learn how to deal with sporting success for the first time since Joe Carter was rounding third 23 years ago.


Anyway... let's look at Sunday:




Ain't No Sunshine


Frustration over the performance of DP winger Lucas Melano is palpable in the Timbers fanbase since, in the six games the MLS Cup champs played in the month of July, he produced just two assists. Portland won just one of those six games, scored only five goals, and sank below the red line in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.


Here's the rub with Melano:

His speed allows him to get into great spots, especially on the break. The talent around him allows him to go at defenders (or, more accurately, past defenders) in isolation quite often. And then... his last touch usually fails him.


Melano did pick up a pair of assists against Seattle just three days after Chris tweeted that map, but those were his only box-score contributions of the month, and the Timbers truly need him to bring a little more to the table in order to punish teams that are becoming more aggressive at throwing their fullbacks forward. If that's making you think of Sunday afternoon's opponents, Sporting KC (4 pm ET; ESPN in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada), well, you're not wrong.


In short: Two goals and five assists isn't enough from a player of Melano's talent, especially when he's afforded chance after chance thanks to playing with the likes of Diego Valeri and Fanendo Adi


I'll also be watching: Sporting's restarts. They beat Portland via a header off a free kick last week, and there's little reason to think SKC shouldn't dominate dead-ball situations once again.




Use Me


Italian European Championship veteran Antonio Nocerino has had one of the toughest adjustments to MLS of any big-name player coming into the league that I can remember. This isn't, say, Jean-Baptiste Pierazzi coming to a league that's just too fast for him, or 35-year-old Steven Gerrard discovering that altitude is a thing and it hurts.


Nocerino only just turned 31 a couple of months ago, and played 30-odd games across Serie A and the Europa League in 2014/15. He split time between Torino and Parma, and while he wasn't great in either place, he was still pretty good. You wouldn't think a Serie A midfielder would have much trouble with MLS.


But you'd be wrong. It took five months for Nocerino to play a good game with Orlando City, which is what he managed last weekend in Jason Kreis' debut as head coach. Here is the network passing graph from that game, a 3-1 win over the Revs:


That data viz is made using Opta data. Each circle represents each player's aggregate position, while the thickness of the lines connecting players represents the number of passes traded back and forth.

Nocerino is No. 22, and not only was he tasked with being the primary distributor to Kevin Molino (No. 18) and Kaká (No. 10), but he was also largely on his own defensively. And he held up just fine against the Revs.


I'll also be watching: Nocerino will have to keep tabs on Nicolas Lodeirowhen Seattle come to Orlando on Sunday (7 pm ET; FS1 in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada). Lodeiro was able to find space all over the field against LA last weekend, and the Galaxy only just kept him off the scoreboard. There is no Jelle Van Damme on Orlando City's backline to do the same, so Nocerino and everyone else in midfield will have to be flawless in their tracking of the Uruguayan maestro.




Lean On Me


Dax McCarty left RBNY's 2-2 draw against Chicago last weekend just before halftime. You won't see him again for at least a month.


The New York captain and starting d-mid suffered a small tibial plateau fracture (a "slightly" broken leg, basically) after a rash challenge from Fire midfielder Khaly Thiam. It's the first significant injury of McCarty's Red Bull career, and the first time the team will have to cope for any duration without him since his arrival in the middle of the 2011 season. That marks 190 appearances and over 16,000 minutes across all competitions – and yes, that means second-year central midfielder Sean Davis has his hands full on Sunday night at LA (9:30 pm ET; FS1 in the US | MLS LIVE in Canada).


Davis has talent. He can hit a nice long ball, he covers ground, and he's a threat on set pieces (though he's not likely to take many as long as Sacha Kljestan is on the field with him). The problem is that he's not close to McCarty in terms of defensive presence, and his propensity for getting to plays late can leave the RBNY backline exposed.


Here's his map of defensive actions against the Fire, from his 52 minutes on the field:


Each of those red triangles is a missed tackle. You can imagine what the likes of Gerrard, Robbie Keane or Gioa Dos Santos will do with that space.


I'll also be watching: The number of shots the Galaxy concede, of course.




One more thing:

Give your post a tidal


Happy weekending, everybody.