New York City FC are coming off a win in perhaps the most important game in the history of the franchise. The team defeated their rivals, the New York Red Bulls, 2-0 on Sunday at Yankee Stadium, to capture their first #NYDerby win.
A lot of that sentence comes as a shock to MLS fans who have been following the league over the past year and a half, but what might be most shocking is the fact that the win came at home for Patrick Vieira’s team.
Prior to their triumph against the Red Bulls, the team had won just two of their 10 home games, with one of those two wins coming in their last appearance at Yankee Stadium against the Philadelphia Union.
What’s been uplifting for NYCFC all season has been their performances on the road. They are the only team to have four wins on the road in MLS, despite having played just seven games, fewer than every other team in the league but one.
They will have to rely on that road form yet again this week, as they travel to New England to take on the Revolution on Wednesday (7:30 pm ET; MLS LIVE) before taking on Sporting Kansas City at Children’s Mercy Park on Sunday (8 pm ET; FS1). So what has made David Villa & Co. so effective on the road? Let’s take a look.
Expected Goals numbers from AmericanSoccerAnalysis.com exclude Sunday's 2-0 win vs. Red Bulls.
ATTACKING
Location |
Games |
Goals |
Shots/Game |
Conversion Rate |
xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home |
11 |
16 |
16.09 |
9.04% |
17.14 |
Away |
7 |
13 |
13.29 |
13.98% |
10.11 |
Offensively, NYCFC are scoring more goals on the road and more goals usually mean better results. Their 1.86 goals per game away from Yankee Stadium is the highest average among any road team in MLS this season, .16 more than second-placed Real Salt Lake.
The increase in goals is not directly correlated to the amount of shots they are taking, as they are actually taking 2.8 more shots at home. Despite the discrepancy in the figures, the 13.29 shots NYCFC takes on the road per game are the most in MLS. Looking at the expected goals figures provided by AmericanSoccerAnalysis.com, it’s clear that NYC are getting a bit lucky on the road and a bit unlucky at home.
DEFENDING
Location |
Games |
Goals Against |
Shots Against/Game |
Conversion Rate Against |
xGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home |
11 |
21 |
10.64 |
17.95% |
13.04 |
Away |
7 |
10 |
14.14 |
10.10% |
12.63 |
On the other side of the field, the NYCFC defense is doing a much better job at keeping opponents from celebrating. The reason for that can not be spelled out in the amount of shots they are conceding, but simply the rate at which opponents are converting their chances. Again, taking look at the expected goals numbers, it’s plain to see that they are much luckier on the road. NYC are scoring more goals than their numbers expect they should, and conceding fewer.
So taking a look at this as a whole, should NYC really be that bad at home and that good on the road? Probably not. The team has performed well on the road, and will need to do keep on doing that this week with games at New England and Kansas City. Their results at home have not been as good, but the performances do not indicate that they should have struggled as much as they have. If their results can match their performances for the rest of the season, Patrick Vieira’s team should ease into the playoffs.
