Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 17 of the MLS regular season

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The hardest part, you'll be told, is the summer. It's not freezing so badly you can't feel your feet in November, nor is it a deluge of spring showers in March or April. It's the hot, relentless, scorching sun of the summer that separates out the wheat from the chaff in MLS.


Summer's here, folks. July is here. Somebody's gonna wilt in the sunshine.


Here's what's on the radar:


Friday | Sunday | Monday


Friday Night


Chicago host San Jose (8 pm ET; Unimas), followed by RSL hosting D.C. United (10 pm ET; Unimas).


At this point in the season, with 14 games gone and only 11 points in the bank, the Fire are what they are: An ultra-defensive team that tries to scorch you on counterattacks and doesn't have much else to offer in attack. If they get up early, they can be tough to beat. But if they go toe-to-toe, they'll pretty reliably break down and concede bad goals.


The "get up early" part has been problematic, but they pulled it off against Columbus in US Open Cup play this past Tuesday in what became a 2-1 win. Their network passing graph from that game tells the story:


This graphic is made using Opta data. The circles represent each player's aggregate position, and the thickness of the lines connecting them represents the number of passes exchanged between players.


You can see pretty clearly the disconnect between the forwards, David Accam (#11) and Kennedy Igboananike (#77) and... pretty much everybody else. Once the Fire were up a goal they just parked the bus and dared Columbus to pull their backline up in attack. As Crew SC did that, it allowed the Fire forwards to get in behind.


Game, set and match.


Given how good the San Jose defense has been, and how conservative they generally are on the road, I wouldn't expect them to come out and play in the same way Columbus did. They'll force the Fire to try to create something.


If you want to see what a more connected and robust attacking team looks like, here's RSL's map from Tuesday's 1-1 draw (which turned into a PK loss) against Seattle in USOC action:


Chicago had two guys whose aggregate touch was in the attacking half on Tuesday night; RSL had eight.


I actually thought RSL looked good in doing that, but the game-winning goal never actually came despite repeated opportunities. Their build-up play was often excellent while their finishing was profligate.


Rest assured that United head coach Ben Olsen will have noticed that, and prepared his team accordingly.


  • Update: The Fire did not score early, but they did score at home and got the better of a sluggish San Jose team in a 1-0 win, while RSL looked set for a 1-0 win themselves following a dominant performance...until Jared Jeffrey rewarded Bill Hamid's heroics in stoppage time in a 1-1 draw.


Sunday's Show


First it's the New York Derby as NYCFC host RBNY (12 pm ET; ESPN) and try to avoid another Bronx Massacre. A few hours later (7 pm ET; FS1) it's two teams -- Sporting KC host Columbus -- who desperately need to start collecting points in order to start salvaging their respective seasons.


The #NYDerby game will be a battle of the flanks. For as impressive as youngsters Jack Harrison and Ronald Matarrita have been, every team they've come up against has been able to get wide and get chances when going at them:



If Jordan Morris takes that with his left foot, last weekend's game tells a very different story.


Sporting's error-prone midfield and defense has been the subject of much scrutiny here and elsewhere, so let's turn our attention to the visitors. Obviously they miss Kei Kamara's goals from last year -- he kept them in games singlehandedly at times, including in the playoffs. That said, Ola Kamara has been a fairly decent goal poacher as Kei's replacement.


The problem is literally everything else. To crystalize it: Kei was second on the team with 36 chances created in 2015, building one every 77ish minutes (or so). So far in 2016, Ola's created just four chances -- one every 129 minutes. That's a huge drop-off, and is especially problematic given the lack of a true creator with Federico Higuain on the shelf.


Monday Comes


And finally, a shout for the Monday special as Colorado host Portland (9 pm ET; MLS LIVE), which we'll be streaming for free right damn here.


Lots of comings and goings in this one as Jermaine Jones returns to the Rapids, Darlington Nagbe to the Timbers, and Tim Howard makes his debut for Colorado. Outgoing is Timbers winger Dairon Asprilla, who's been loaned to Millionarios in Colombia.


Asprilla was almost always more entertaining than effective:



That is some outrageous stuff.


While he never quite adapted, fellow South American Lucas Melano seems finally to have hit his stride. He has two goals and a drawn PK in his last two games, and if you stretch it back to seven you can also include a couple of assists. Melano has begun adding the purposeful verticality that Portland have been missing this year -- the type of stuff that was Rodney Wallace's domain.


Even with all that, however, is anyone comfortable picking against the Rapids anymore? They've completely bought in and are atop the Supporters' Shield standings for a reason at this point in the year.




One more thing:

View post on imgur.com


'Murica.


Happy weekending, everybody.