Let’s be honest: There are plenty out there who don’t give the US men's national team a prayer in this Copa America Centenario.
… To get out of Group A.
In fact, there are so few believers out there that any mention of final-four aspirations for the USA or even the thought they could contend for the title raise more than a few eyebrows (if the comments section on those pieces are any indication).
Why all the naysayers? It's not even like the Americans are the "Leicester City" of this Copa America field (Tottenham Hotspur might be a more apt English Premier League comparison). If you can see past the glitz of the traditional South American powers and objectively analyze the matchups, Alexi Lalas is right – winning the 100th anniversary edition of the Copa America is actually within the realm of possibility. You wouldn't even be able to call it a miracle.
The US national team CAN WIN THE COPA AMERICA. Here’s why:
Group A, Matchday 1: Colombia are just not the same
They may be No. 3 in the FIFA World Rankings, but the Colombians are nowhere close to the team that reached dizzying heights when they nearly knocked off Brazil in the 2014 World Cup quarterfinals.
That’s also because the man who inspired that run (James Rodriguez) has been knocked down a few rungs himself with another lackluster season at Real Madrid. And gone are the world-class fullbacks that had their attack buzzing in 2014 (Pablo Armero has more serious issues to deal with these days).
Let me put this Colombia in context for you: They're a slightly better version of Ecuador. And they're beatable.
Group A, Matchday 2: Ticos in transition
Here’s another team still hanging on desperately to those 2014 laurels. The coaching mastermind behind their magical World Cup quarterfinal run (Jorge Luis Pinto) is a distant memory, and they're actually on their second head coach since he left.
Their star goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, won’t be there after winning the UEFA Champions League. When you're still relying on the the likes of the slow-footed Celso Borges and a Bryan Ruiz in obvious decline for a few years now, you know your roster turnover has been slow in coming.
Let’s not forget that the last time Costa Rica beat the US in a competitive match on US soil was way back in a 1985 World Cup qualifier (the Yanks are 13-5-4 all-time vs. the Ticos in the USA, including friendlies).
Group A, Matchday 3: Poor, poor Paraguay
The only scary thing about this Paraguay squad is how inept they are in attack.
That's not just based on their most recent loss to Mexico in a Saturday friendly that once again showcased an anemic attack that could have used influential midfielder Richard Ortiz, out due to injury. Then again, this is a team that has scored as many goals as Bolivia in World Cup qualifying.
By this third and final group stage game, Paraguay could already be out of the running, making the US task that much easier.
Quarterfinal: Brazil or Ecuador?
Whether the US national team finishes 1st or 2nd in Group A, they're likely looking at another South American obstacle in their path for the crossover quarterfinal matchup with Group B, in which Brazil and Ecuador are predicted by most to finish ahead of Haiti and Peru.
It's hard not to see the USA being the favorite in a potential matchup against Ecuador or even Peru if they were to pull off a surprise.
That leaves Brazil – a squad that some were even labeling "experimental". That was before players began dropping like flies in the lead-up due to injuries. All you need to know is that more than half of Brazil's 23-man roster that beat the US 4-1 in a September friendly last year won't be here for the Copa America.
Their front three, which by this stage could include rising teen star Gabriel, aka Gabigol, are still unquestionably formidable on paper, but it's not even a hot take to say this won't be the steamrolling Selecao of years past. They sputtered in last year's Copa America, they're only 2-1-3 in their first six World Cup qualifiers and they were ordinary in a 2-0 win over Panama in their final tuneup match.
Semifinal: Please, let it be Mexico
It would be the biggest USA-Mexico matchup since the 2002 World Cup Round of 16. On top of that, there's the added layer of Mexico possibly arriving at this stage on a world-best 23-match unbeaten run.
A win here against the best Mexican side in recent history, and the USMNT would be permanently forgiven for coming up short in last year's CONCACAF Cup collapse.
Mexico is the best-case scenario, because the likes of Uruguay, Argentina and Chile would surely represent more complicated opposition when it comes to their mix of talent, experience and tactical sophistication.
Final: USA would likely be favorites
Unless, of course, it was Argentina or Brazil on the other side of the field. But by then, any chasm between them and the US – real or perceived – would be erased by all the talk of Klinsmann's men being a "team of destiny."
Plus, if the US were ever going to beat a world giant like Argentina or Brazil in a real competition, their best chance would probably be in a final on home soil. You know what they say about finals – anything can happen.
Ya just gotta believe.
