The Copa America Centenario is finally here, with the biggest tournament to hit American soil in more than two decades set to begin Friday when the US national team take on Colombia at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California (9:30 pm ET; FS1, Univision, UniMás, UDN).
Some of the biggest stars in world soccer will be taking part, with the likes of Argentina’s Leonel Messi and Chile’s Alexis Sanchez vying to lead their countries to the Copa title. MLS will be well-represented as well, with the USMNT, Costa Rica and Jamaica all featuring plenty of players from around the league.
Just who has a real shot at lifting the trophy on June 26 at MetLife Stadium? Let’s break it down:
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Argentina (Group D)
The roster is stacked, the stars are motivated, and the country desperately wants to win their first major trophy since 1993. Recipe for success, right? If only it were that simple.
Argentina have had a bit of a rough run-up to the Copa, dealing with several high-profile issues ahead of their high-profile opener against Chile on Monday. First, Lionel Messi took a worrisome knock in a friendly against Honduras, then had to fly back to Spain to testify in his tax fraud trial on Thursday.
He’ll return to La Albiceleste in plenty of time for Monday’s opener, but be he’ll joining a team that’s in the middle of a feud between their federation and their government. If Argentina can put all that aside, they have as good a shot as anyone to take home the Copa crown. If not, Messi’s search for international glory will extend for at least a couple more years.
Brazil (Group B)
Neymar won’t be there, Orlando City star Kaká suffered a late injury, and head coach Dunga will have them playing a bit more defensively than we're accustomed to. But Brazil is still firmly among the top contenders. Chelsea’s Willian, Barcelona’s Dani Alves, Liverpool’s Phillipe Coutinho, and Zenit St. Petersburg’s Hulk bring plenty of star power to the Selecao, who will be looking to regain some international bragging rights after their 7-1 drubbing in the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup and penalty-kick elimination at the 2015 Copa America.
Uruguay (Group C)
Luis Suarez commands all the attention, but he’s far from the only accomplished player in Uruguay’s deep, proven squad. You could call them the kings of the Copa--Uruguay’s 15 tournament titles are more than any other country. And they have talent on every line, with Atletico Madrid’s Diego Godin leading from the back, Nicolas Lodeiro providing a spark in the midfield, and Paris Saint-Germain’s Edinson Cavani up top. The current leaders in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, Uruguay have made five major semifinals in the last 10 years and should make another deep run this summer.
Contenders
USA (Group A)
The US are on home soil and are capable of beating just about anyone in the field. Despite concerns about the difficulty of their group, they should progress to the quarterfinals. The opener will be the key. A win against Colombia would position the US well to win Group A, likely setting the Americans up for a quarterfinal meeting in Seattle against Ecuador. A defeat, and the US would be in a battle for second, and even if they got it, Brazil would likely await in the quarterfinals.
Mexico (Group C)
The US won’t be the only home team this summer. Mexico will be followed all Copa by legions of fans, who will be expecting plenty from El Tri following their 2015 Gold Cup and CONCACAF Cup titles and successful start to World Cup qualifying. Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Andres Guardado can run with the best of them, and Mexico should contend with the big boys all summer long.
Chile (Group D)
Chile have gone through a bit of turmoil since winning the Copa America on home soil last year, with former coach Jorge Sampaoli resigning in January and the team losing four of their last five matches, including both of their pre-Copa friendlies. Still, Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal are two of the best in the world at their positions, and La Roja cannot be overlooked.
Colombia (Group A)
The darlings of the 2014 World Cup have struggled a bit since Brazil, bowing out in the quarters of last year’s Copa America and getting off to a bit of an uneven start in World Cup qualifying. They have, however, won all three of their matches in 2016 and boast some serious star power in James Rodriguez, Juan Cuadrado, and Jeison Murillo. They have the talent to make a deep run this summer; we’ll see if they have the ability to string together consistent performances.
Ecuador (Group B)
Ecuador have gotten off to an excellent start in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying. At 4-1-1, they’re currently tied for first through the first six matches of the campaign, and boast impressive wins at Argentina and against Uruguay.
Recent results have not all been positive, however. They failed to make it out of their group at last summer’s Copa and haven’t been very impressive in the build-up to this year’s tournament, drawing Paraguay 2-2 at home and losing 3-1 at Colombia in March before falling to the US in a friendly on May 25. They should make it out of Group B, but getting past the quarters could be a tall order.
Dark Horses
Costa Rica (Group A)
Don’t count out Los Ticos. They had an early exit at last summer’s Gold Cup, but their magical run at the 2014 World Cup, when they were a penalty kick shootout short of the semifinals, showed that they were capable of competing with anyone. They’ll give the US and Colombia plenty of heat in Group A.
Jamaica (Group C)
They’re behind Panama in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, but, as they showed at last summer’s Gold Cup, the Reggae Boyz have a formula for tournament success. They’ll face plenty of pressure, but if Philadelphia Union goalkeeper Andre Blake can do his thing in net and the attack can use their speed to hit on the counter, Jamaica–who were a tough out at last summer’s Copa and recently won a friendly at Chile–could raise some hell.
The Rest
Bolivia, Haiti, Panama, Paraguay, Peru or Venezuela face a longer shot at making it out of the group stage. For these teams, this summer will likely be more about enjoying the ride than contending for the title.
