The six teams currently residing above the red line in the Western Conference are a combined 28-1-6 at home. While much about MLS is unpredictable and inscrutable, this has always been true: If you defend your home turf, you will be a playoff team. If you fail to do so, you will go nowhere. So while I probably (definitely) wouldn't have correctly guessed the teams in playoff position 35% of the way through the season, I'd have been able to tell you the underlying realities of how they got there.
The six teams currently residing about the red line in the Eastern Conference are a combined 12-6-13 at home.
Three weeks ago I said that NYCFC's season was done because they were 0-1-4 at home; they've followed that up with a three-game winning streak, sit second in the East, and have a 3-2-0 road record. Toronto FC conceded seven goals on an 8-game road trip to start the season, then gakked up four in a home loss to the Whitecaps on Saturday.
"Clearly our start to the game was pathetic," head coach Greg Vanney said afterward, and who am I to argue? Every team in the West has won at least half their home games, while only two teams in the East have done so. You'd think they would both be in good shape, but no -- one of those two (the Red Bulls) are 19th in the league in points per game.
Here's the thing with NYCFC, Toronto, RBNY and everybody else East of the Mississippi: I have no idea what's going on.
All the truths that have generally underpinned regular season performance over the years in MLS don't seem to apply to the Eastern Conference in 2016. At the same time, they seem to apply more than ever in the West.
Now let's figure this league out...
Sour Times
NYCFC's latest victims were the Western Conference's ninth-placed team, the Portland Timbers. They dropped them 2-1 on Sunday in a game that was set up for the classic Timbers push down the stretch, but instead fizzled out as a low-block NYCFC bunch ended up getting more of the ball and taking any rhythm away from Portland's attack.
Let's use numbers: Over the game's first 75 minutes, Portland generated 22 shots, including eight on target. In the game's last 15 minutes (plus stoppage), they generated only two, and neither of them forced a save or a block or anything other than a goal kick going in the other direction.
The dropped points will surely concern Caleb Porter and the Timbers staff, but the inability to convert urgency into production has to be a little bit terrifying. Portland scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of matches than anybody in the league last season, and brought most of the same pieces back, which in theory means they should be able to play the same way, use the same approach, win the same sorts of results.
So far it looks like that's not replicable.
Just as frustrating has to be the continued inefficiency of right winger Lucas Melano, the Argentine DP who came on mid-season and took his time to integrate before turning it on in November. Lest Timbers fans be too hasty with their effigies, let's remember that it was Melano who scored the series-clinching goal against FC Dallas in last year's Western Conference Championship, and then had the MLS Cup-winning assist against Columbus.
Thus we know he can produce in high-leverage situations. But boy has he not been thus far in 2016.
Here is his passing map from Sunday's loss. Green lines are completed passes, and red incomplete:
Melano was constantly on the ball in great spots, both in possession-based build-up and in transition. All he managed to complete were one over-hit cross and one back pass, with everything else missing the target entirely.
NYCFC, by their very nature, invite the opposing right winger into that space because they send left back Ronald Matarrita forward at every opportunity. Melano therefore had every opportunity to make a play, and couldn't.
Barrios didn't score there, but the threat he presents as the second man in the box -- one who runs off the back shoulder and gives defenders fits. He also loosens up the entire backline for the Dallas midfield to pick apart, which leads to goals like this from Saturday's 2-0 win over the Sounders:
"The confidence is growing," Dallas head coach Oscar Pareja said after the game. "The team is getting confidence, and we had bad experiences the last few weeks with results that are not easy to change. We lost some games that put us in a bad position defensively, and today getting the clean sheet is a great reward for the boys. We’re not there yet and you can see the team is getting back in form, but there’s still a long way to go to see the team we want. Tonight I reward them due to the tactical intelligence they had, and the structure they showed."
It's enough to have them all the way up in second place in the West (third in points per game).
A few more things to ponder...
6. Dallas weren't the only ones to take a six-point week, as the Whitecaps managed it as well. First they won 2-1 at home against the Fire on Wednesday -- a game in which striker Masato Kudo suffered a terrifying injury -- and then they went over to BMO Field and stunned TFC by 4-3 on Saturday.
Kekuta Manneh had what was perhaps his finest game as a pro. For the Yanks out there wondering: He is due to get his citizenship in August.
5. Colorado are still just cruising along. On Wednesday they got a 1-0 win over Sporting thanks to a Dillon Serna rip that caught Tim Melia cheating, and on Saturday they took a point at Columbus when Kevin Doyle was allowed a free header from seven yards out for a 1-1 final.
For Crew SC, I'm going to call Ola Kamara's debut as a starting No. 9 in place of Kei Kamara "worrying." He showed no ability to hold the ball up and link play, which is a crucial part of Columbus's identity:
Yeouch. That's it for the full 90 minutes.
I wouldn't be shocked to see Conor Casey get some run the next time Columbus take the field.
4. Houston went to San Jose on Wednesday and were entirely outclassed in a 3-1 loss to the Quakes, then came home and smothered RSL in a 1-0 win. Goalkeeper Joe Willis got the game's only assist in that one as the RSL backline misjudged a goal kick and allowed Giles Barnes to run free into the area.
3. I wrote about the week rookie Keegan Rosenberry had for the Philadelphia Union following their 1-1 draw at Montreal on Saturday, which followed on the heels of a 2-2 home draw against the Galaxy on Wednesday.
Robbie Keane and Giovani Dos Santos get to share this week's Pass of the Week, by the way. I can't decide which one was more perfect:
2. D.C. United put together what was maybe the week's cagiest display, counterpunching the Red Bulls into a 2-0 win on Friday night. Patrick Nyarko had a goal and an assist, and he continues to be the league's most underappreciated attacking player.
RBNY continue to be absolutely miserable away from home, as they're 0-5-1 in their first six. Last year they were a respectable 6-7-4 en route to the Supporters' Shield, but that now seems like long ago.
1. And finally, our Face of the Week goes to Sporting manager Peter Vermes from late in his team's slump-busting 2-1 win over Orlando City on Sunday:
See the video embedded at the top of this page for a little more of a breakdown on what went wrong for Sporting, and what finally went right. Bottom line is that I stand by my preseason assessment -- they have a ton of guys who are more comfortable coming to the ball and trying to be playmakers, and not enough guys who move into space away from the ball in order to find goals.
One of their wingers has to get closer to Dom Dwyer and offer a little more support/opportunism in the box, and for the final 20 minutes against OCSC Jacob Peterson was the answer.
