Mexico vs. Canada | CONCACAF 2018 World Cup Qualifying Match Preview

For Canada, things might be about to go from bad to worse.

Despite some bright signs from the home side when the two teams met in front of a record 54,798 fans in Vancouver on Friday, Mexico were full value for their 3-0 victory. Now, Canada will try to find a way to regroup ahead of a showdown at the always-daunting Azteca, a stadium with a capacity nearly twice that of BC Place.

Though Canada was always going to come into Tuesday's game as steep underdogs, the hope had been that they could find a way to nick a result—or, at the very least, keep the scoreline tight—on home turf. But a devastating lack of finishing by Canada’s attackers, combined with Mexico’s superior technical ability, meant the result was beyond question long before the final whistle blew.

It’s clear Mexico is the class of Group A. Through three of six games in the semifinal round of qualifying, El Tri has three flawless victories. If Friday night’s game was any indication, they’ll likely have four by the time all is said and done on Tuesday.

That leaves Canada, El Salvador and Honduras scratching and clawing at each other for one available berth in the Hexagonal round, somewhere
Les Rouges
haven’t been since 1997. A 2-2 draw between the Central American foes on Friday night helped Canada’s chances, and fans up north will be hoping for another draw in San Pedro Sula on Tuesday night.




But, of course, Canada has no control over the result between El Salvador and Honduras. The question now is, how much control will they be able to exert over their own result against Mexico?

Roster note: Scott Arfield did not travel with the Canadian team due to injury. He was not replaced on the roster.

HISTORY

When it comes to these teams facing each other in Canada, Friday night was a bit of an anomaly. That’s not just because of the size of the Canadian crowd, but also because of the lopsided nature of the final score. Canada has managed to play Mexico fairly tightly at home in the past, particularly in recent World Cup qualifying cycles.

Generally speaking, Mexico has still held the advantage when it comes to results. In 13 meetings since 1990, they’ve won eight, while Canada has won two (most recently at the 2000 Gold Cup). Three, meanwhile, have been draws—all three of which were World Cup qualifiers played in Canada.

And when it comes to playing at the Azteca, well … in Canada’s last three visits for World Cup qualifiers, Mexico has won by a combined 10-0 score. Perhaps Canadian fans can hold out some microscopic hope that the soccer gods believe in symmetry, and will grant the visiting side an anomalous outcome of their own on Tuesday.

Suffice it to say, though, history is on Mexico’s side on Tuesday evening.

CANADA OUTLOOK

While a draw on Friday would have boosted spirits (and Canada’s qualifying hopes), all is not lost in their quest towards Russia 2018. As mentioned, the 2-2 draw in San Salvador was probably the best news the Canadian team received on the night.

Another draw between El Salvador and Honduras on Tuesday evening would put Canada in the position of potentially squeaking into the Hex even with losses at Azteca and at San Pedro Sula in September. In that scenario, if Mexico wins both its games in September (an entirely reasonable proposition), Canada would advance with a home win against El Salvador on Sept. 6.

Of course, this is CONCACAF, so expecting things to fall easily for the Canadian team is as sensible as waiting for $100 bills to start raining out of the sky. A home win by Honduras on Tuesday produces the predictable nightmare scenario for Canada—needing a result in San Pedro Sula to keep their hopes alive.

There’s little else on the calendar between now and then (the team has one friendly scheduled, on June 3 vs. Azerbaijan), so, good news Canada fans—you’ll have the better part of five months to fret about that Honduran showdown in September.

MEXICO OUTLOOK

With advancement to the Hex virtually assured after just three games played, Mexico can essentially put their feet up and coast through the remainder of the semifinal round, should they choose to do so.

They will not choose to do so.

The stars are aligning for Mexico to reassert itself as the dominant force in CONCACAF, and with memories still lingering of their troubled (and very nearly unsuccessful) qualifying campaign for the 2014 World Cup, it’s difficult to envision the team taking its foot off the gas pedal during this cycle.

The game on Tuesday is also one of the team’s final chances to prepare for the much-hyped Copa America Centenario in June, in which Mexico will face Uruguay, Jamaica and Venezuela in the group stage.

A year after Mexico won the Gold Cup (albeit in somewhat controversial fashion) and the CONCACAF Cup, success at the Centenario would go a long way in proving that the team’s resurgence is for real.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Milan Borjan, Canada -- You’ll be watching him whether you want to or not, as he’s likely to be bombarded by Mexican attacks all night long. The 28-year-old goalkeeper made numerous highlight-reel saves on Friday night. In Tuesday’s rematch, he’ll have to be in top shot-stopping and team-organizing form if Canada is to keep the game within reach.

Hirving Lozano, Mexico -- The 20-year-old Pachuca winger showed glimpses of his potential on Friday night, capitalizing on a Canadian mistake in the midfield, speeding past the defense and mercilessly crushing a shot past Borjan.

ROSTERS

Canada: 

GOALKEEPERS (3): Milan Borjan (PFK Ludogorets Razgrad/Bulgaria); Kenny Stamatopoulos (AIK Fotbol/Sweden); Simon Thomas (FK Bodø/Glimt/Norway)

DEFENDERS (8): David Edgar (Sheffield United/England); Dejan Jakovic (Shimizu S-Pulse/Japan); Manjrekar James (Diósgyöri VTK/Hungary); Doneil Henry (West Ham United/England); Marcel de Jong (Ottawa Fury FC); Nik Ledgerwood (Energie Cottbus/Germany); Karl W. Ouimette (New York Red Bulls); Steven Vitoria (Benfica/Portugal)

MIDFIELDERS (9): Tesho Akindele (FC Dallas); Julian de Guzman (Ottawa Fury FC); Junior Hoilett (QPR/England); Iain Hume (SD Ponferradina/Spain); Atiba Hutchinson (Beşiktaş JK/Turkey); Will Johnson (Toronto FC); Samuel Piette (Deportivo la Coruna/Spain); Tosaint Ricketts (unattached); Adam Straith (Fredrikstad FK/Norway)

FORWARDS (2): Marcus Haber (Crewe Alexandra/England); Cyle Larin (Orlando City SC)

Mexico: 

GOALKEEPERS (3): José de Jesús Corona (Cruz Azul/Mexico); Alfredo Talavera (Toluca/Mexico); Alejandro Palacios (UNAM/Mexico)

DEFENDERS (7): Rafael Márquez (Atlas/Mexico); Héctor Moreno (PSV/Netherlands); Paul Aguilar (Club America/Mexico); Miguel Layún (Porto/Portugal); Diego Reyes (Real Sociedad/Spain); Néstor Araujo (Santos Laguna/Mexico); Yasser Corona (Queretaro/Mexico)

MIDFIELDERS (11): Andrés Guardado (PSV/Netherlands); Héctor Herrera (Porto/Portugal); Javier Aquino (UANL/Mexico); Marco Fabián (Eintracht Frankfurt/Germany); Jesús Manuel Corona (Porto/Portugal); Jesús Molina (Santos Laguna/Mexico); Isaác Brizuela (Guadalajara/Mexico); Rodolfo Pizarro (Pachuca/Mexico); Hirving Lozano (Pachuca/Mexico); Cándido Ramírez (Monterrey/Mexico); Orbelín Pineda (Guadalajara/Mexico)

FORWARDS (3): Javier Hernández (Bayer Leverkusen/Germany); Raúl Jiménez (Benfica/Portugal); Eduardo Herrera (UNAM/Mexico)