Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 31 of the 2015 MLS season

DC United's Ben Olsen encourages Fabian Espindola

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It looks like the truly big news this weekend will be coming out of Philadelphia, with the departure of Nick Sakiewicz. As I wrote following the Union's heartbreaking U.S. Open Cup loss on Wednesday night, the pieces are there for this team to do some work next season. They have a few areas they need to address – getting a top-tier d-mid and real fullback depth – but the core of this team is much more good than bad.


Anyway, there's just four more weekends of MLS left this year. Let's get to the games:




1. New Dawn Fades


"We’re at a point now where you gotta do the job,” D.C. United coach Ben Olsen said after last week's loss to Montreal, the fifth in their last six outings and seventh in their last 10. "And there are some other guys that can bring some life, or if I see something different that the game is going to need, I gotta start pulling those cards. Because what we’re doing isn’t working – and when I say 'what we’re doing,' it’s them and me as a group."


What D.C.'s been doing all year – really the past couple of years – is sitting deeper than other teams, allowing a ton of possession, and trying to cut down not on shots allowed, but on shot quality allowed. AmericanSoccerAnalysis did some work on this a while back, and while I don't 100 percent agree with their findings, I do think that they come closer to the truth than most realize.


The problem for D.C. recently has been their ability to continue cutting down on opposing shot quality, and this is an issue that stems from poor transition defense. Bad turnovers have repeatedly left their central defenders exposed...

I mean, feel free to get on Steve Birnbaum as much as you want right there, because he's now on a poster. But good teams don't turn the ball over in that spot.


The frustrating thing for United fans has to be the knowledge that this team looks like it's regressed from the end of last season, which they finished with a loss in the playoffs to the Red Bulls in which they played some flowing, purposeful, front-foot soccer. That hasn't been built upon in 2015.


They'll get their chance to right the ship against RBNY's noisy neighbors on Friday night (7 pm ET; UDN | UniMas), provided the weather cooperates.


I'll also be watching...  Teams have beaten D.C. lately by stretching them, but NYCFC don't play that kind of game, and mostly don't have that kind of speed in attack. The one exception may be Khiry Shelton, who probably wishes he was with the US U-23s for their Olympic qualifying effort, and probably has a point to make on national TV.




2. Isolation


I've talked about Will Bruin here and there this season, and it's worth understanding where his 2015 season (which has been way, way under the radar) looks in comparison to some familiar names:

Bruin's M.O. has completely changed over the last two seasons from a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer to the opposite, even as he's become more and more of a lone forward. The question now is "when will his finishing regress to the mean?" because, for almost all strikers, it almost always does.


For Houston to qualify for the playoffs – right now they're hanging on by a thread – he needs to go on one of his month-long hot streaks, so they'd best hope that regression is postponed.


The other thing they need? DaMarcus Beasley to keep being DaMarcus Beasley. They're 1-4-1, with a -4 GD when he doesn't start, and 10-8-7, +3 when he does.


FC Dallas will have both guys featured prominently on the scouting report ahead of Sunday's Texas Derby (2 pm ET; ESPN2 | ESPN Deportes).


I'll also be watching... Kellyn Acosta's field coverage. FC Dallas missed him badly against LA last weekend, and if he's good to go, they're a better team thanks primarily for his ability to cover ground and close down lanes.




3. No Love Lost


For the second of Sunday's three-game schedule, which sees RSL visiting Colorado (7 pm ET; FS1 | Fox Deportes | Fox Sports GO), here is the primary point of interest: The Rapids can basically end RSL's season. For a rivalry game to have stakes like that... even if these two teams have often fallen short of "entertaining" this season, the blood should be up and the action should be intense.


There is also the not-so-small matter of Javier Morales's health:

Player
Chances Created (inc. assists)
Big Chance Created
Morales, Javier
72
7
Plata, Joao
20
2
Beltran, Tony
20
1
Mulholland, Luke
17
2
Jaime, Sebastián
15
2
Beckerman, Kyle
14
1
García, Olmes
12
2
Sandoval, Devon
11
2
Gil, Luis
11
0
Saborio, Álvaro
8
1
Martínez, Juan Manuel
7
0
Allen, Jordan
7
0
Mansally, Abdoulie
7
0
Phillips, Demar
6
0
Silva, Luis
5
0

Anything interesting RSL do runs through Javi, and it always has.


I'll also be watching... Luis Solignac, maybe? He came in midway through the season and while we all know how tough that can be, he's taken that maxim to extremes. The Argentine has no goals and two assists in a little over 900 minutes, and has only rarely been an impact player to the good.




4. Day Of The Lords


The weekend wraps with Seattle hosting the Galaxy (9:30 pm ET; FS1 | Fox Deportes | Fox Sports GO), and I'm presuming the Sounders will be without the services of Chad Marshall after Wednesday's scary injury.


Losing Marshall doesn't really change the style that Seattle will play, though obviously being without the defending and three-time Defender of the Year makes them worse overall. The way they change is by having Brad Evans slotted back to central defense permanently:



That should've been a goal, and it should kind of light the way forward for Seattle over the next month. Evans can take space if offered and crack a defense open with a single pass, which the wide attackers have to be particularly ready to exploit as the central defense is dragged away from those channels by Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins. Teams know that they have to keep the middle compact in order to prevent ObaDeuce from running wild, which should give Evans runners to pick out near the touchlines.


I'll also be watching... What LA do on set pieces. The Sounders have been bad defensively on restarts, and without Marshall they'll be even worse.




One more thing:

Be daring.


Happy weekending, everybody.