Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 23 of the 2015 MLS season

We are now 65 percent of the way through the 2015 season. The transfer (and trade) window is closed, meaning that if there are any big moves left, they're going to have to come via out-of-contract players -- something that doesn't happen all that often.

The roster freeze deadline is in five-and-a-half weeks, in mid-September. So take a look at your favorite team's roster. Do you like it? You'd better learn to, because what you see is most likely what you'll get for the rest of the season.

A few quick notes:

First, Sporting KC's trip to Toronto on Saturday(4 pm ET; TSN | MLS LIVE) loses some of its luster with four key players -- Dom Dwyer and Roger Espinoza for the visitors; Damien Perquis and Benoit Cheyrou for the hosts -- out due to suspension or injury. It nonetheless remains the most compelling game that day in large part thanks to the fact that the Nos. 1 and 2 guys in the MVP race will be squaring off.

And yes, I now (like everyone else) have Sebastian Giovinco No. 1 on that list. But what if Benny Feilhaber walks into BMO Field, outplays Michael Bradley and leads Sporting to a win? A statement will have been made.

Second, it's all but clinched that this will be the best year for attendance in MLS history, with a good chance the average will be over 21,000 and the median scraping 20,000. More than one fifth of the games this year will end up with an attendance of 25,000 or greater.

To put that into perspective: 10 years ago at this point in the season the average was 14,500, the median was 12,100 and more than 30 percent of the games had an attendance of 10,000 or less. Kenn Tomasch keeps great records at his blog, which I recommend you check out, and there is the ever-reliable attendance thread over at BigSoccer if you want to crunch the numbers further.

Attendance at both second-tier NASL and third-tier USL games is also climbing. Chattanooga FC drew more than 9000 fans for the NPSL semifinals. Grand Rapids FC, a USASA team, pulled more than 6000 people in the stands for their season finale.

Get out there and support your local.

Third, I'm going on vacation for the next 10 days, and will be supporting the local sunscreen and rum industries of Hawaii. My fearless comrades Greg Lalas and Simon Borg will be filling in for me on my Sunday night/Monday morning wrap-up for Weeks 23 and 24, as well as next Friday's On the Radar piece.

Be gentle with them.

Onto the games:

1. From Safety to Where...?

From the end of June until the end of July, Portland went on the road four times across all competitions. They lost all four games, all by multiple goals, by a combined score of 14-1. They logged a lot of miles and came away with nothing to show for it.

So last weekend, they traveled to San Jose and rather than come out and try to play the Earthquakes straight up, they bunkered. Portland went for the classic smash-and-grab road strategy, inviting San Jose forward into the final third and relying on their own ability to clear the ball out of danger.

And so they produced 55 clearances, with Nat Borchers and Liam Ridgewell particularly busy:

They also produced a clean sheet and at least a couple of chances -- including a PK that Diego Valeri smashed off the bar -- that could (maybe should?) have won it. Even though they didn't take all three points, the strategy worked.

On Friday they host Chicago (11 pm ET; UniMas | UnivisionDeportes.com) at Providence Park, and it'd be foolish to expect more of the same from the Timbers. They've played more compact and intuitive soccer at home, and haven't needed to resort to emergency defense quite so often.

However, it might not be an awful idea to sit back a little bit against a Chicago team that's only really been dangerous this season in transition. Portland can get on the front foot, sure; but at what cost if it allows room in behind for David Accam to run into? At least one other Cascadia team (hello, Vancouver!) has embraced their identity as a low-block defensive squad, and the same might be in the best interest, both long- and short-term, for Portland.

I'll also be watching... Shaun Maloney. The Fire confirmed that English Championship side Hull City have tabled an offer, and while the MLS window is closed, the transfer window in most of Europe is open until September 1. Maloney hasn't looked great individually, but the Fire as a whole have performed better when he's been on the field.

2. Day of the Lords

So on Sunday afternoon, the LA Galaxy host the Seattle Sounders (4 pm ET; ESPN | ESPN Deportes | WatchESPN | TSN2), and between the two teams they have 4,000 DPs and a salary budget approaching "entire Central American country." This is the Western Conference's own One-Percent Derby.

And at the center of it all -- literally -- will be the Galaxy's Steven Gerrard. LA broke their 11-month-long road winless skid last weekend at Colorado, and Gerrard's functionality as a box-to-box midfielder was essential. Sean Steffen did a nice job of adding up the numbers here, but I wanted to slice out this little run of play to show that while Gerrard is still properly defined as a box-to-box player, we shouldn't expect to see him covering as much ground as, say, Michael Bradley does in Toronto or Davy Arnaud does in D.C.

The sequence in question:

Leonardo lingers on the ball for nearly 10 seconds, and Gerrard never shows for it. Juninho does a little bit, but it's half-hearted. Eventually Leonardo decides to skip the midfield and find Alan Gordon checking back into space -- the right decision in this instance, and often.

Once the game has opened up into that, Gerrard sprints into action and comes to the ball, rather than opening up space off of it like last year's No. 8, Marcelo Sarvas, would have.

This is by way of saying that the Sounders are going to try to force LA's central defense to do as much of the distribution work as they possibly can, and Gerrard is probably content to let them, since too much running means 1) less gas in the tank, and 2) a kind of wonky defensive shape that could expose a team that's not particularly gifted at scrambling.

I still think Juninho and Gerrard will end up being a close-to-perfect central pairing for LA's "Y" midfield. But there will be times when smart teams can make Leonardo and Omar Gonzalez play outsized roles in initiating strings of possession.

I'll also be watching... Ozzie Alonso limped off the field for Seattle last weekend, and Micheal Azira played 90 hard minutes in Vancouver on Wednesday night in the CONCACAF Champions League. There will be tired and/or injured legs in the middle of the field for LA to exploit.

3. No Love Lost

New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC, round three, takes place on Sunday night (7 pm ET; FoxSports 1 | FoxDeportes | FoxSportsGO | TSN2), and we can all rest assured that the battle will be won or lost in the central midfield. It's incumbent upon the RBNY midfielders to get pressure early onto Andrea Pirlo, whose early usage rate is exactly what you'd think it would be:

Accept the obvious sample size caveats, as 123 minutes isn't enough to judge based purely on his MLS play. But given the two decades of data we have of Pirlo in the top flight, I feel comfortable making certain assumptions.

The good news for RBNY is that in Sacha Kljestan they have an attacking midfielder -- a No. 10, really, in the way he's deployed -- who is as defensively active as anyone in the league at that spot. Kljestan will spend most of his time right in Pirlo's grill, getting facial grooming tips and trying to limit the Italian maestro's passing lanes. This is the "advanced destroyer" or suffoco role that we've seen Marco Delgado play to such good effect in recent weeks for Toronto.

Kljestan basically has to make Pirlo miserable. If he doesn't, Pirlo will make the Red Bulls miserable instead.

I'll also be watching... Kwadwo Poku needs to play from the start in this one, if only to give Pirlo (and probably Frank Lampard, though there should be the obvious fitness reservations about starting him) a target for direct play. I know Jason Kreis wants to play a more intricate style, but intricacy requires repetition, and it's too late in the year for that.

Happy weekending, everybody.