Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 21 of the 2015 MLS season

Before I jump into a look at the national TV games, I just really, really want to recommend Columbus vs. Toronto (7:30 pm ET; MLS LIVE) and Dallas vs. Portland (9 pm ET; MLS LIVE) on Saturday night.

These are "litmus test" for all four teams.

• Have Wil Trapp's return and Gregg Berhalter's backline adjustments fixed the defensive issues for the Crew?
• Is TFC's defense good enough to go on the road against a good attacking team and not be a tire fire?
• Can FCD dominate, at home, a fellow Western Conference team that usually pounds them?
• Will Portland be able to shake their disastrous road form?

These are all pretty serious questions that will color the way I look at each of these teams. I'm picking the home team to win both games, for what it's worth.

Onto the others:

1. There Is A Light That Never Goes Out

I made a joke in this week's Power Rankings that Javier Morales is probably immortal, or at least has some sort of anti-aging syrum allowing him to play as well (or better) at 35 as he did at age 28.

As I said, I was joking. But after looking into it a bit, and realizing that Morales actually is playing better now than he was when he was in his prime, I want to believe. The truth is out there.

And here it is in the form of Opta measurements of chance creation:

Benny Feilhaber is the best player in the league at the moment, but Morales is the best pure chance creator. And you can't convince me that won't be the case in 2025. It's ridiculous.

I'd say "appreciate him now, before he's gone" but he'll be around forever. Javi and RSL take on Sporting KC on Friday (11 pm; UniMas | UDN | UnivisionDeportes.com) in something of a grudge match.

I'll also be watching... Somehow Sporting KC left back Amadou Dia's rookie campaign has flown under the radar. That needs to stop, because he's having a hell of a year on the defensive side of the ball. He's one of the most agile defenders in the league and does the simple things -- like shutting down crossing opportunities -- well.

Dia, who was born in France, has repped the US at the U-18 level, and is eligible for the Olympic qualifying campaign in October. He's not a game-breaker, but KC fans can attest to the fact that "steady if unspectacular" can go a long way toward helping a defense.

2. How Soon Is Now?

It's not clear whether or not either Frank Lampard or Andrea Pirlo will play for NYCFC in Sunday's match in the Bronx against Orlando City (2:30 pm ET; FoxSports 1 | FoxDeportes | FoxSports GO | TSN2). This is a bummer, for the obvious reasons (it sure would be nice to watch these guys play) and the not-so-obvious (even the best players need time to sync up, and the clock is ticking on NYCFC's playoff hopes).

While that partnership is on hold, it needs to be noted that David Villa and Patrick Mullins have put their time together thus far to good use and have started discovering how to carve out room for each other and the rest of the attack:

Mullins has been a part-time starter, but his 4 goals and 3 assists in under 800 minutes suggest that he should maaaaaybe be going from the gun for Jason Kreis & Co.

I'll also be watching... Orlando City played midweek in the US Open Cup at Chicago, and they were bad. Particularly so at defending long-balls.

That's not really NYCFC's game, but don't be surprised if they test OCSC along Route 1 at least a couple of times in this one.

3. Panic

Of all the truly good teams in the league, D.C. United have the slimmest margin for error. They almost never blow anybody out, the always concede a ton of chances, and they regularly leave friends and foes alike thinking "How the hell did they win that game?"

Not much of that lately, however. United are on a three-game winless skid, and have won just twice in their last seven and only four of their last 12. It's been enough to maintain a pretty solid lead in the Eastern Conference race heading into Sunday's game against Philly (5 pm ET; ESPN 2 | ESPN Deportes | WatchESPN), but those underlying numbers are starting to become worrisome, especially with Bill Hamid on the mend:

"xG" is shorthand for "expected goals," a useful advanced metric that takes years of shot & save data, lumps it into an algorithm, and spits out the number a team should be expected to score given the types of chances that were generated.

United have done a good enough job of creating goalscoring opportunities. Where they've broken the system over the last two years is by allowing a ton of high-probability chances, but still cranking out result after result.

I have to admit that I've been kind of waiting for that to stop, because it feels unsustainable (which is a stupid thing to say, because if you've been winning games with a certain style for 18 straight months, then OF COURSE it's sustainable). And I also have to admit that I think Hamid – who is braver, and closes angles faster than any other 'keeper in the league – is the secret to their math-breaking success. What looks like a good shot to the algorithm is actually much worse than the numbers realize, because Hamid is way up in your face doing stuff like this.

Without him they're not exactly a bad team, and backup Andrew Dykstra's 1-3-1 record this season is too small a sample size to start throwing stones, especially since he was 3-0-1 last year.

But still... I think it's Hamid. Without him, the math doesn't add up for D.C.

I'll also be watching... Toronto took Cristian Maidana out of the game last week by playing Marco Delgado as an advanced destroyer or "suffoco," cutting off the supply lines between Maidana and Vincent Nogueira. File that under "Stuff Davy Arnaud is only too happy to do."

Happy weekending, everyone.