Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: The long term, the short term, and how Sebastian Giovinco has transformed Toronto FC

I'm a pretty firm believer that "the next step" for MLS has more to do with talent development than it does with overseas spending power. North America is the great, untapped mother lode of soccer potential, and the teams that are digging hardest – which includes Toronto FC – stand to build the best foundation for long-term, sustainable succes.


That type of success is based upon depth, versatility and the ability to translate a tactical system from the highest level all the way down to the grassroots. When the MLS commissioner or anybody else says "league of choice," my first thought isn't X, Y or Z international striker in his prime; it's local kids who grow up with the game and their team, and want nothing more than to wear its colors. That's the choice that really matters, and that's where the most headway has to be made in the long term.




1. Money Well Spent


With the above duly noted: It sure must be nice for a club to have the option to straight-up buy an immediate solution. And that's what Sebastian Giovinco was for Toronto FC in Saturday's 1-0 win over Portland.


I'm going to write a little bit more about the game here, but it largely came down to the fact that one team had Giovinco and the other didn't. His first 45 minutes were remarkable:



He now has five goals and four assists in his first 10 games, and also has TFC above the red line in the Eastern Conference.




2. Lopsided with a Point


Alvas Powell has earned a lot of praise this season with his two-way play at right fullback, and there are few in the league as good as he at defending on an island.


At the same time, he still struggles in run-of-play decision making in the build-up, and often doesn't figure out when to step or when to drop until a beat or two after he should. Those numbers he racks up? They're indicative of a guy who can scramble really well in defense, but they're also indicative of a guy that opposing teams target:

Giovinco spent a ton of time flaring out to the left, while Jonathan Osorio and Ashtone Morgan had another in their string of strong games (and yes, this bodes extraordinarily well for Toronto's long-term prospects). Look at where TFC went to town in the first 45:

Armchair Analyst: The long term, the short term, and how Sebastian Giovinco has transformed Toronto FC -

Portland got much better at protecting Powell, who overlapped much less in the second half. Timbers coach Caleb Porter made an adjustment in Diego Chara's positional responsibilities, which you can see using the Opta Chalkboard.


Chara First Half

Armchair Analyst: The long term, the short term, and how Sebastian Giovinco has transformed Toronto FC -

Chara Second Half

Armchair Analyst: The long term, the short term, and how Sebastian Giovinco has transformed Toronto FC -

It was a good adjustment that gave Portland control of most of the second half, and helped neutralize Giovinco somewhat. But it came too late to salvage any points.




3. Up the Gut 


The day's biggest adjustment had to come on the TFC sidelines, as they entered their "Jozy Altidore is hurt" era. Toronto head coach Greg Vanney gave Luke Moore the start at center forward, and Moore repaid that faith with his best showing of the year.


You can see his assist in the highlights above, but this play was actually even better – from Moore and pretty much everybody else in red:



Moore is a traditional No. 9, comfortable operating in the central channel with his back to goal in a way that Altidore has never been. And that pass is brilliant.


TFC did a good job of making that stylistic change work, and have plenty to build with over the next month. It's another step forward – both in the short and long-term for a club that has, traditionally, struggled to build or keep momentum.