Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 11 of the 2015 MLS season

By now, the good teams in MLS know exactly what they want to do once they get out onto the pitch. Columbus aim to get their fullbacks up the field, get it wide and punish you with crosses. Seattle? They'd like to hit you with Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins in transition. D.C. try to crush you on breaks (never leave a set piece short against them) and restarts.


New England want to press you high and possess the ball in the final third. The Red Bulls aim to do the same. Toronto want Michael Bradley to chip balls into the box like a dude with a pitching wedge (I'm uncomfortable grouping TFC in with the good teams as yet, but I wanted to link to that goal from midweek). Vancouver try to make sure Pedro Morales has time and space to do Pedro Morales things:

That's obscene.


And we told you all about FC Dallas on Thursday, HERE, HERE, HEREand HERE.


With the above in mind, here's a little bit about three teams riding the struggle bus:




1. You Can't Hide


On Thursday, our own Alex Olshansky broke out his abacus and broke down the issues with New York City FC's midfield, from a passing-to-chance generation perspective. Mix Diskerud is, perhaps, being a bit too conservative. The fullbacks aren't pushing up to create width. The forwards aren't finishing. Cats and dogs, living together – mass hysteria.


It's not much better on the other side of the ball these days. NYCFC, who host Chicago on Friday night (7 pm ET; UDN | UnivisionDeportes.com), have had trouble sorting out the defensive responsibilities of their forwards when applying back pressure.


Marco Pappa's movement here is good, but not exactly unmanageable:



But it was enough to give him time to pick out that one, game-breaking pass. That goal was washed out of the collective consciousness by the 18-pass masterpiece Seattle put together in the same game, but this is actually the much more troubling sequence from a structural point of view.


Here's why: If you're going to play two forwards – and if David Villa's on your team, you're pretty much committed to going with a 4-4-2 of some sort – they both have to be adept at dropping into those deep midfield pockets to make sure opposing teams don't get to pick out unmolested, north-south channels of distribution. But there NYCFC were, giving Pappa time to take a touch, pick up his head, and put it on a platter for the league's best forward.


There's no hiding a bad defensive forward anymore, especially for an expansion team at an overall talent deficit. Figuring out who back-presses when and where will be especially important against a Chicago team that loves the same kind of deep distribution Pappa showed in the above clip.


I'll also be watching... Matt Polster-to-David Accam should be awesome, but I'm actually most interested in seeing how Mikey Stephens looks in his return from injury. Stephens was excellent in a sort of "game manager" role – think Andy Dorman in New England, or Victor Ulloa in Dallas – and his comfort on the ball made him the perfect short-short-long partner for Polster.




2. This Is Happening


I've been trying not to gush about Cyle Larin. He's a UConn guy, and I'm a UConn guy, and I don't want to let that color my view of how he's performing/developing/playing. I've been wrong – spectacularly so, in the case of Maurizio Rocha – about UConn guys before, so I've been hesitant to weigh in too heavily on this year's No. 1 draft pick.


But... Larin's good. Really, really good. I still have some questions about his motor and movement in the 18, but his feet, strength, vision and brain in the build-up are all MLS-caliber or beyond.


He scored a ruthless, opportunistic goal midweek against D.C., but this is actually the kind of stuff that made Larin the top pick:



That's a clinic on how to check back and release pressure for your midfield. Then he rides a challenge, then he puts the ball into Kaká's run, then he makes a good, aggressive run himself. He should have gotten the return ball – to be honest, the fact that this didn't become a goal is actually kinda Kaká's fault (though a lot of credit has to go to Jermaine Jones' closing speed, which took away the one-time cross).


Larin is not a one-man solution to Orlando City's woes, and the Galaxy on Sunday (5 pm ET; ESPN2) won't likely give up too many tasty transition opportunities. But there's been a lot of chatter about OCSC going out and buying a center forward this summer, and Larin's quick growth into the role should make the Citrus Bowl braintrust think twice about spending more at that spot.


I'll also be watching... LA's attack has not been much to look at recently, but Jose Villarreal should be back to play a part in this one, and the 21-year-old initiated this bit of magic with a Los Dos rehab run-out midweek. Worth noting that the primary assist there went to another Galaxy Homegrown, attacker Raul Mendiola, who leads the USL with seven assists in eight games.




3. I Can Change


The situation in Philadelphia's goal is going to get most of the attention because life is cruel and/or a Monty Python sketch. Union fans are mostly used to that by now.


But on Sunday, when they host D.C. United (7 pm ET; FoxSports 1), pay special attention to how much special attention Philly are giving the ball. So far in 2015, they don't seem to value it very much:

Team
Passing Accuracy
Possession
Possession Lost
Orlando City SC
82.48
52.94
1327
Columbus Crew SC
82.33
53.03
1214
Montreal Impact
80.94
52.25
659
Portland Timbers
80
51.79
1471
Seattle Sounders FC
78.97
51.59
1274
New York City FC
78.76
54.58
1585
Chicago Fire
77.59
50.8
1230
Toronto FC
77.55
46.91
1069
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
76.91
45.99
1546
Houston Dynamo
76.74
49.02
1625
D.C. United
75.56
50.42
1562
LA Galaxy
75.54
51.83
1792
New York Red Bulls
75.46
55.24
1532
Sporting Kansas City
75.25
51.58
1519
Real Salt Lake
75.25
50.63
1425
Colorado Rapids
74.86
48.67
1559
New England Revolution
74.6
48.06
1589
FC Dallas
73.84
46.02
1495
Philadelphia Union
73.31
46.15
1778
San Jose Earthquakes
70.12
43.75
1552

The Union are 19th in passing accuracy, near the bottom in possession percentage, and second from bottom in total number of times they've lost possession. They give up the ball in bad spots, close down slowly (see the time Morales has in the above clip?) and that – more than the goalkeeping issue – is why they've got the worst by-the-numbers defense in the league.


Some teams use the ball; Philly are used by it, in both attack and defense. They've scored 10 goals this season, but none has come in a game in which they've had 45 percent or more of possession. Everything Philly does is snatch-and-grab, but you can only really play that way if you post zeroes.


I'll also be watching... The 4-1-3-2, maybe? United head coach Ben Olsen has mostly operated in an empty bucket 4-4-2 over the past several years, but added a valuable wrinkle with the sneaky good offseason signing of Michael Farfan, a No. 8 who will run all day on both sides of the ball. Farfan's field coverage as, essentially, a forward destroyer against Vancouver a few weeks back put D.C. in control of that game even before Matias Laba saw red just before halftime.


Against a Philly team that's not secure on the ball, and with Davy Arnaud coming off a hard midweek shift in a 2-1 win over Orlando City, Farfan should have a role in central midfield. I also like that this could show us more of Perry Kitchen as a pure No. 6, which is the job he'll most likely be asked to do for the USMNT should he make this summer's Gold Cup squad.




One more thing:

Get outside and do something ridiculous. It's good for you:



Happy weekend, everyone.