Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: On the radar for Week 10 of the 2015 season | Three Things

And so the MLS season makes its turn around the quarter pole. Hats off to D.C. United, who are the only team averaging more than two points per game, and are getting better pretty much every week. The "2 ppg" mark is a hallowed one in league lore, and it's not hit often. The last time anybody hit it was a decade ago, when the 2005 San Jose Earthquakes battered the Western Conference to the tune of 64 points in 32 games.


United have a long way to go on a journey that continues at home against Sporting KC on Saturday (7 pm ET; MLS LIVE). That's a game that is very, very much worth your time.


Here are a few other thoughts about this weekend:




1. You Wanted a Hit


Lee Nguyen picked up an assist last week against RBNY in New England's win. It was his second of the year, to go along with one goal. These numbers are quite obviously a far cry from his near-MVP season of 2014.


There has been speculation both rampant and conspiratorial about the reasons for Nguyen's sharp decline in productivity thus far in 2015. Obviously injuries may have played a role, as could better scouting – there's was a whole offseason for Eastern Conference coaches to figure out how to stop him, and 35ish games for them to scope out.


But mostly, New England have changed the way they attack. They're far more flank oriented than they were last season, as the 4-1-4-1 morphed to a 4-2-3-1 and now what's more or less a 4-3-3. 


Here are the Revs' chances created from last year before Jermaine Jones' arrival:

Player
Chances Created (inc. assists)
Minutes Played
CCs Per 90
Nguyen, Lee
49
1892
2.33
Tierney, Chris
31
1536
1.82
Rowe, Kelyn
30
1087
2.48
Bunbury, Teal
28
1964
1.28
Fagundez, Diego
24
1850
1.17

Here they are after Jones' arrival:

Player
Chances Created (inc. assists)
Minutes Played
CCs Per 90
Nguyen, Lee
29
1291
2.02
Rowe, Kelyn
22
1225
1.62
Kobayashi, Daigo
14
612
2.06
Caldwell, Scott
13
1031
1.13
Tierney, Chris
13
874
1.34

And here they are for the past five weeks, as New England have shot to the top of the Eastern Conference:

Player
Chances Created (inc. assists)
Minutes Played
CCs Per 90
Nguyen, Lee
9
474
1.71
Tierney, Chris
9
390
2.08
Bunbury, Teal
7
296
2.13
Agudelo, Juan
6
463
1.17
Woodberry, London
6
270
2.00

All of the above tables are courtesy of Opta.


Nguyen is the only central player on that last list. He's become a less important (though still, you know, important) part of New England's attack as Jones' ability to spread the game out, flank-to-flank, has opened up the field. It's particularly telling in the chance generation of the fullbacks, and nobody has benefitted more than Chris Tierney. Except maybe Teal Bunbury. They've both been absolutely devastating.


The Revs have been very good at figuring stuff out on the fly over the past 24 months, and this is yet another installment in that long-running series. Nguyen will get his time on the ball on Friday night against Orlando City (8 pm ET; UDN, MLS LIVE), but don't expect the whole game to go through him like it did at this point last year. Those days are gone.


I'll also be watching... Orlando City have a wide midfield issue after Kevin Molino went down with an ACL tear. Early reports are that Brek Shea is being moved back up the field to the wing, which I do not like. Shea has been one of the better left backs in the league this season, and sticking with him at that spot now can pay dividends in the future, even if the midfield is a bit of a mess.




2. Daft Punk Is Playing At My House


I've been watching soccer in the US since the late '80s, and in my time nobody has taken as much undeserved grief as Michael Bradley. First he straight up wasn't good enough. Then he was only in one team – the Metrostars – or another – the USMNT – because his dad was the coach.


Then he was good, but not international caliber. And then he was too petulant, a red card waiting to happen. Or he was too aloof. Or his turnover – 75 yards from goal – cost us a World Cup win, because nobody could have possibly have stopped that Portugal counter (watch HERE, folks). Or... well, the list goes on, and most of the criticism thrown his way has been perfectly perplexing to me (though somehasn'tbeen).


The most confusing criticism, though, is this: Michael Bradley is robotic. He lacks creativity or flair, and is only good for paint-by numbers passes.


I'm gonna shut up now and post the clip:



Perfectly weighted, 45-yard, left-footed through-ball on the run to cut out four defenders? That is not robotic. That is da funk, and he does this on the regular.


Toronto FC have slowly and surely discovered some stuff about themselves over the course of their seven-game odyssey to start the season. One of the big discoveries is that Benoit Cheyrou is disciplined enough to function mostly as a true No. 6, allowing Bradley to freelance up (and down) the field, pulling the strings from deep as is his wont. And when Cheyrou's not in there, or is in a more advanced position himself, Collen Warner has given valuable minutes as the No. 6.


I have a feeling Bradley is about to unleash holy hell on the rest of MLS, starting on Sunday at BMO Field (5 pm ET; ESPN2). MLS teams that have started with long road trips have almost uniformly succeeded upon their return home, and I don't expect TFC to be an exception. Bradley will be at the heart of the team's first playoff push – and yes, Virginia, there will be a postseason in Toronto this year.


Critics will call it robotic, but at this point I honestly have no idea what they're looking at.


I'll also be watching... Houston's formation. They tried a 4-4-2 for 180 minutes and gave up eight goals. Then they went back to a 4-5-1 and got shut out on Tuesday. There appear to be no easy answers for this team, which has won just once in the last nine games.




3. Us vs. Them

The RBNY social team has been trolling on all week. They're rock stars.


To quickly lay out the specs of this first edition of the New York derby, which takes place on Sunday (7 pm ET; FOX Sports 1): NYCFC will likely come out in a 4-2-3-1, though if David Villa is healthy it could easily be a 4-4-2 with a "box" midfield, the way Brazil played in the 1982 and 1994 World Cups, and the way the US often played under Bob Bradley. My guess is that Ned Grabavoy will join Mix Diskerud deep in that midfield, because against the Red Bulls what you need most is ball security.


RBNY, under Jesse Marsch, have turned into a high-and-hard pressure team, one that tries to feast off of turnovers in the attacking half:

It's tough to play through that in the best of times – which these certainly are not for the light blue half of the NY metro area. This could be a coming of age game for Diskerud, who has all the tools to be one of the best central midfielders in MLS.


And now he has the stage to show it.


I'll also be watching... Midfield turnovers from the team in red. There are few bigger Dax McCarty fans out there than I, but stuff like this can not happen. McCarty has mostly been great – "Pleases get him into the national team"-level great – but his work is too often being undermined by those turnovers, and RBNY finally paid the price last weekend.




One more thing:

Barcelona play on Saturday at noon ET. Find a TV and watch.


Not just because it's a La Liga title race, and not just because there's a Golden Boot race, and not just because it's cool to like Barca again.


Because Lionel Messi is doing stuff like this:



And he won't be around forever. Messi is still just 27, but how many more moments of magic does he have left? To paraphrase Will Parchman... that particular move was Jordan's foul-line dunk, except if it was over Kareem. In the Eastern Conference final.


Happy weekend, everyone.