One of the questions I get asked most often as an MLS Fantasy practitioner is, "When is it appropriate to take a four-point transfer penalty?"
The math is fairly simple: if there is a player you believe can contribute more than four points on the week, and there’s a player on your squad that will not play, take the penalty. So if (H - 4) > 0, then the transfer is worth the risk.
That’s a fairly narrow set of players. Goalkeepers you are confident can get the shutout in a week where your starting 'keeper is injured are on the board. Forwards facing a suspect defense in a home game would be on that list as well. For midfielders you want to stick with those who get attacking bonuses.
Double game weeks are also a popular time to risk a penalty, and this is the first of six in a row.
The pessimistic point of view on the transfer penalty is the -2 points you can net if you transfer in, say, a target forward who doesn’t score that week. Such is the nature of risk/reward systems. This is why I don’t recommend taking a penalty to rid yourself of an underperforming player. That could leave you feeling more embarrassed than Principal Rooney in a Chicago pizza parlor.
However, in a double game week like the one we’re currently on, so long as you feel confident a player will play in both games, the net risk is zero. Unless, of course, the player picks up a performance penalty.
What am I saying? It’s a double game week! Hope springs eternal.
This week’s question comes from Diane Guymon. How crazy should we go to get her double match week compliant? Let’s take a look.
Dear MLS Fantasy Doctor,
I’ve got some good players, but I still have my free transfers for the week. Do you have any recommendations for switches I should make?
Let’s start with Victor Ulloa. He’s a popular choice (14.8% of managers) with a low price tag ($6.5) and a relatively consistent contributor. He’s not had a spectacular return in any match yet, so I don’t think there will be any regrets if we find a comparable player on the Red Bulls, who have a double game week.
To make room for my plans, we need to first rid ourselves of Chris Wingert ($7.0). Matt Miazga on the Red Bulls has a $5.6 price tag, already has two clean sheet bonuses and is a threat on attacking set pieces. If the Red Bulls pick up a clean sheet this week, that’ll pay off nicely.
The transfer yields an extra $1.4. That’s still not enough to transfer in a starting Red Bull midfielder, so here’s the scheme I’ve come up with. We’re going to transfer out Obafemi Martins ($11.4) for Bradley Wright-Phillips ($11.0) and then captain Wright-Phillips.
This comes with a fair amount of risk, so I’m marking it as optional. You can stop at simply transferring out Wingert, bringing in Miazga, and calling it a week. However, in the matches where Wright-Phillips has scored, he was good for better than 10 points. Can you imagine captaining someone with the potential for a 20-point week? Tantalizing!
If you’re still with me, feel free to stop there. However, if you really want to push the envelope, take the $1.8 we’ve amassed and transfer in Dax McCarty ($8.1). If you already had some spare cash before our money saving measures, go for Felipe ($8.4).
They may call you mad, but if this pays off you might skyrocket straight to the top of your league! It’s at least some food for thought.
Hope this helps!
