Armchair Analyst: Matt Doyle

Armchair Analyst: Who goes to the bench? What Juan Agudelo's return means for New England Revolution

It felt a little bit like Charlie Davies' return to prominence last season was somehow under-reported. The timing of it, you see, meshed fairly well with the arrival of Jermaine Jones (for the record: NOT under-reported) and subsequent juggernaut-ization of the New England Revolution, so Davies' near-miraculous revival became a tertiary storyline at best.


That said, his revival actually started a month before Jones came on board. Davies was actually good for two goals and an assist as the Revs went 2-1-1 in the four games immediately before Jones' arrival, helping break the midseason death-spiral and winning the starting job permanently. He ended up bagging 3 goals and 4 assists in 13 starts last season, all from late July onward. He added four more goals and another assist in the playoffs.


His total in 2014: 7 goals and 5 assists in 23 games (18 starts), and a bit over 1500 minutes. Those aren't star numbers, but they are starter numbers.


Also: In those 18 starts, New England went 11-4-3. It's hard to imagine Charlie Davies won't begin the 2015 season in the starting lineup.


The same can and should be said of the newest addition to the team, fellow striker Juan Agudelo, who arrived on a four-year, non-DP contract on Friday. In Agudelo's first tour of duty with the Revs, back in 2013, the team went on a less dramatic (but still pretty damn good) surge comparable to the one in 2014, climbing up the table and all the way into the Eastern Conference semifinals, where they gave eventual champs Sporting KC a legit run for their money.


Agudelo's numbers with the Revs that season were similar to Davies' from last year: 16 games (13 starts) with 7 goals and 2 assists in just over 1300 minutes. They were a much, much better team with him in the lineup, which is why he's back.


Also, stuff like this:



And now Jay Heaps has a job to do: figure out how to either get both Davies and Agudelo into the starting XI without compromising the midfield stability that, as much as anything else, was key to New England's stretch run. They played what was mostly a 4-2-3-1 (that you could call a 4-4-2 since Lee Nguyen moved so far up into attack) after Jones arrived, and there is very little doubt that it worked.


No matter the formation, Nguyen's not coming out of that lineup. Obviously Jones was/is irreplaceable. Sitting Scott Caldwell will appeal to casual fans who don't appreciate the job of a dedicated d-mid, but doing that would actually place restrictions on where Jones goes on the field – not a good thing, since a big part of how he dominates is by covering more ground faster than any other midfielder in the league, and the other big part is how he is absolutely conscience-less in his passing. Both traits can quickly turn negative if there's no No. 6 offering protection against bad turnovers or defensive over-pursuit.


Dropping Caldwell would also drag Nguyen further away from goal, which isn't a great way to use a guy who scored 18 times in 2014.


That leaves wide men Kelyn Rowe or Teal Bunbury. Bunbury is a converted forward, so clearly Heaps isn't afraid of trying unorthodox things to get his most dynamic lineup on the field. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that Agudelo and/or Davies get looks in those spots, even if both are clearly better suited to a center forward's role.


EDIT: A pointed out to me by Devin Pleuler, Agudelo spent more than just a little bit of time on the wing in 2013. One of the games in which he started out wide? A certain 1-0 win over Columbus in which he scored the game's only goal. You can see it in the above GIF.
He also started both playoff games out there. I still like him better as a No. 9, but it's not like he doesn't know how to play on the wing.


Is this a problem for the Revs? Yes, but it's a good problem. They suddenly have too many options in attack, which is the type of challenge most coaches would happily face. Bringing in Agudelo – just 22 years old, wildly talented and proven in MLS – makes sense, even if there's not an obvious spot for him in the starting lineup.


There's also a better-than-average chance that regular-season wear-and-tear could make the decision for Heaps. Neither Davies nor Agudelo have been durable, so the coach could be looking at this as a platoon rather than a chance to shift the whole formation.


Whether it actually works out that way does, of course, remain to be seen. But the Revs are better on paper than they were two days ago, and the coach has a pretty good track record of making what works on paper look pretty good on grass (or plastic) as well.


Beyond everything else, that's the storyline New England's fans should be focused on today.