The New England Revolution have lost once in the past three months, and it's not because they're a thundering, unstoppable juggernaut.
They haven't been dominating teams (the Crew being the exception), and they certainly didn't dominate the Red Bulls in Sunday's 2-1 win at Red Bull Arena.
But winning the first leg makes the Revs strong favorites to get to MLS Cup. It would be a shock, quite honestly, if they didn't get there now.
Here's what happened in Sunday's game:
1. The only jailbreak
New England are simply murder on the break, so Red Bulls head coach Mike Petke's gameplan made a lot of sense: Keep this team out of transition.
He did this in a couple of ways. First he dropped Thierry Henry a little bit deeper into more of a pure midfield role, and he also directed his midfield to try to shape New England's deep distribution rather than stop it entirely. Watch the tape again, and you'll see that the Revs had time on the ball, but because of New York's midfield shape, they were rarely able to go direct.
Eric Alexander was a particular key to this gameplan, and was the best player on the field for his 75 minutes. Taking him off for Tim Cahill was, in a word, insane.
This is the only New England break out of note in the game, and it led to the game-winning goal (which may or may not have been offside, but I never mind when close calls go to the attacking team).
1. Why is Cahill, a central midfielder, way out toward the touchline to start this play?
2. Why, when Dax McCarty vacates the middle to give Henry an attacking option, does Cahill not shift centrally to cover for his central midfield partner?
There are no good answers to those questions (and there are others worth asking, like "What's Richard Eckersley doing making such a desperate challenge there?"), but the truth is that this was perhaps the most predictable goal the Red Bulls conceded this season. New York were weak in defense, and slow at getting back in transition until Alexander won the starting job for good in early September. With him out - even for 15 minutes - the Revs were guaranteed to get one clean look on the run.
Petke's done great work this year, and Cahill is a legend. They'll both get a chance to make amends next week, and if they do, it'll be one of the great comebacks in playoff history.
But the decision to go for it - to bring on an undisciplined attacker in exchange for the key to the team's defensive shape - was disastrous. The hill didn't have to be quite so steep.
2. Red Bulls still have their chances
A point I made on this week's March to the Match podcast is that everybody's been getting looks against the Revs. Defensively they do just enough to give Bobby Shuttleworth (who had another solid game) a chance to keep them in it, a risky strategy for a team that doesn't defend particularly well in their own end.
New York, I reckoned, would put those chances away. Henry, Bradley Wright-Phillips, Peguy Luyindula... those guys haven't made a habit of missing either down the stretch or this postseason.
Oops.
RBNY should be kicking themselves, because the result was there for the taking. BWP couldn't control on a breakaway midway through the first; he biffed an open header just before the half; he had an open, left-footed look from 20 yards saved late in the second; and Lloyd Sam had a look from eight yards after Shuttleworth bobbled a swerving, dipping Henry blast at about the 55-minute mark.
New York missed three big chances in a single game only once this season, in a 1-0 win over D.C. United back on Sept. 10. It was an uncharacteristically profligate performance in front of net, one compounded by BWP's yellow card that will leave him suspended for Leg 2.
3. Revs press tells the story for first 20 minutes
While RBNY controlled more of the game on the day, it's worth noting just how strong the Revs were out of the gate. They ratcheted their pressure up just as they had against the Crew, and just as in that series, they got an early goal for their efforts.
That said, Teal Bunbury's masterful left-footed curler wasn't a result of defensive pressure, but rather from a kind of attacking pressure the Revs don't usually exert. It was a nine-pass move following a throw-in, and it was positively Galaxy-esque:
New England had put New York so strongly on the back foot by this time that the Red Bulls were just constantly retreating. That includes left back Ambroise Oyongo - who for some reason didn't show Bunbury outside - and central defender Ibrahim Sekagya, who was slow to recognize the danger when Bunbury got into shooting range.
It's a credit to Jay Heaps, but also to the Revs front office - which has built a team by pulling parts off the scrap heap (Bunbury, Lee Nguyen, Charlie Davies), some smart drafting, a solid academy and one perfect mid-season signing.
They've now got 90 minutes to find the franchise's first trip to MLS Cup since 2007. Given how everything is lining up - skill, luck, good game-planning - it'd be silly to bet against them.
