Something might have broken on Thursday night, when the New York Red Bulls rallied late for a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Sporting KC.
Red Bull Arena, you see, had been a house of horrors for the home team every November since its inception. There was Bobby Convey and the Quakes making mincemeat of Rafa Marquez back in 2010; Rafa's post-game petulence when he tossed a ball at Landon Donovan in 2011; and last season's late, lamentable giveaway in extra time, against the Dynamo.
But the biggest collapse of them all came in 2012, against hated rivals D.C. United. Remember the encroachment on Kenny Cooper's penalty? Remember the snowstorm? Remember everything – everything – that happened in a series between two of the fiercest rivals in the league?
New York's players will surely say they're not out for revenge on Sunday (4 pm ET; UDN, MLS Live & FREE on MLSsoccer.com). D.C. will say that game's waaaay in the past.
But this is a rivalry, and memories are long.
Here's what to expect in the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the 2014 MLS Cup Playoffs, presented by AT&T:
Width and penetration for the hosts
New York's fortunes turned mid-season when they moved to a 4-2-3-1, leaving Bradley Wright-Phillips as the lone true striker and shifting Thierry Henry into more of a winger's role. Henry can quite obviously do this, because he is Thierry Henry. But even the greats have to deal with age and injury, and sometimes that means Titi is not as great an off-the-ball threat as he otherwise could be.
But he can still do this...
... which is exactly how the Red Bulls got the first goal in that win over Sporting. But more often than not he drops deeper and deeper, trying to pick out passes and spread the game around a bit. When he plays like that, everyone else has to be a little bit sharper and smarter in their movements, with left back Roy Miller (who struggled on Thursday) adding some of the off-the-ball penetration that Henry can't bring to the table for 90 minutes anymore.
It's actually up for debate whether Miller, who's generally been excellent this season, should even start this game. Abroise Oyongo is a difficult man to keep out of the lineup, and has better instincts in the attacking third than the Costa Rican international. If the goal is to hit early and hard – and it should be – Oyongo could be given the job from the start.
Either way, as long as Henry is out there, he's going to shift the entire game to his side of the field. United will be forced to overload in order to prevent him from getting his own looks, and as he drops deeper, he'll start doing things like this:
That is a ridiculous pass. Lloyd Sam should have done more with it on Thursday. If he can make good on Sunday, New York will like their chances quite a bit.
Tactical Outlook: 4-2-3-1 with the fullbacks trying to get forward early in the play
X-factor: RBNY are on short rest, and Henry has two balky Achilles these days. Could Mike Petke roll the dice and save his star for a second-half change-of-pace sub?
Ignoring the numbers game
D.C. United play a 4-4-2, which means they have to figure out how to battle New York's superior numbers in central midfield by dragging in a wide player, pulling one of their forwards back, or having a central defender step up and into the play.
That's the theory, anyway. But we've seen United come out against 4-2-3-1 teams all year and simply decide to move the game out to the wings rather than get bogged down with the numbers game. This network passing graph (courtesy of Opta) below shows how they lined up in a 1-0 win over Philly in late September:
So unlike RBNY, or any of the other teams left in the East, D.C. don't spent a lot of time trying to win the central midfield battle. They're just determined not to lose it, and as long as Perry Kitchen and Davy Arnaud are out there starting together, they've done an excellent job of exactly that.
Keeping it at a stalemate in the center allows United to move the game over to the wings, which is where they get the bulk of their creative play. Nick DeLeon is one of the more underrated wide players in the league, Chris Pontius – provided he can stay healthy for 180 more minutes – is a national team-caliber player inverting on the left.
The overload usually comes from the movement of Fabian Espindola, who spends more time flaring out wide than any other forward in the league
Nobody's really sure who's supposed to track him there, and that's not unusual.
It's not always elegant, but it's been effective. D.C. were top of the East and absolutely strolled through the CONCACAF Champions League group stage. They may not have the hype that's surrounding New York right now, but so far in 2014, nobody's been able to hold them back.
Tactical Outlook: 4-4-2 sitting deep, then orchestrating break-outs through Espindola
X-factor: Which Eddie Johnson will show up? He's been good lately, but he can always – always – just disappear
One more reason to watch: When I say "Chris Pontius is national-team caliber" I mean this:
That's from two years ago. He hasn't done the spectacular since his recent return from injury - yet.
Keep watching.
