A year ago at this time, the New York Red Bulls were celebrating their first piece of meaningful hardware in the franchise's existence.
A year ago at this time, Sporting KC were taking the initial steps on the road to their first MLS Cup championship under their new moniker, in their new park.
Things are obviously very different in 2015. RBNY struggled though an up-and-down season before closing with a flourish, while Sporting looked like mid-season favorites before the bottom well and truly dropped out in early August. When they meet on Thursday night in the Eastern Conference Knockout Round (8 pm ET; ESPN2 in the US, TSN1 in Canada), the strongest narrative will be of two teams heading in opposite directions.
Except it's not just a narrative. It's the truth.
How New York changed their season
The Red Bulls rescued their season starting on Sept. 6 against, of all teams, Sporting KC. They beat the champs 2-1 behind goals from Thierry Henry and Bradley Wright-Phillips, kicking off what became a 6-2-1 run to close the season.
Which team will win in the Knockout Round?
They didn't "get hot" or "find their form" or "air it out in the locker room." Save the cliches, because this was actual science: Mike Petke changed his lineup and tactics, and it's worked.
Key to it all was moving Eric Alexander from left midfield to deep central midfield, playing alongside Dax McCarty in a dual pivot role. They limited Sporting's effectiveness in Zone 14 on that day, and they've been doing the same to pretty much everyone else in the two months since.
Here are the positive Opta events for Sporting's starting midfield - Benny Feilhaber, Jorge Claros and Paulo Nagamura - in Zone 14 from that game:
That's a level of defensive solidity New York had been missing all season. They'd spent the year failing to get early pressure on everyone from Pedro Morales in Week 1 to Perry Kitchen in Week 25 and had fallen below the red line. Then they changed their formation, beat KC and have been above it since.
Moving Alexander deeper did necessitate a few other changes. One of them - the big one - was moving Henry to the left wing of a 4-2-3-1 instead of keeping him more central, either as a pure playmaker or a second forward. Henry always drifts left anyway, and he's still a triple threat (shoot, pass, dribble) even starting from wider.
Getting him out there causes real match-up problems as well, since there's not a fullback in the league that can handle him in isolation. In response, most teams either have a central defender step out wider - which gives more room to BWP - or have one of the central midfielders drop deeper, which gives more time and space to Alexander, McCarty and whoever's playing in the middle of New York's "3" line.
Tactical Outlook: 4-2-3-1 that tilts left - provided Henry is healthy
X-factor: The middle of that "3" line. Péguy Luyindula's been more consistent, but Tim Cahill just had his best game of 2014 in that role
Going gentle into that good night
Sporting KC entered some kind of Lovecraftian nightmare in early August and still haven't found their way out.
Soccer is a team game, and the entire group deserves some blame for the way what was once MLS' best defensive team has become a sieve. Yes, Jimmy Nielsen retired, and Chance Myers got hurt, and Uri Rosell left. Those are big losses.
But Sporting were supposed to have the depth and fitness to handle that. They haven't, and the gap on the right side is where opposing teams go to get wins:
Plays like that - which is from Sunday - are why when people just automatically assert that Rosell is the biggest loss, I kind of shake my head. Myers makes that play. He gets to the ball Kevin Ellis whiffed on, and BWP doesn't get to put RBNY up 1-0 in what really felt like a must-win game for both teams.
Without Myers, both Ellis and Igor Juliao have gotten some time at right back, and while both have a lot of upside, neither is able to stay as connected to Aurelien Collin as he should. Those gaps, which Myers often closed with his excellent (and underrated) scrambling ability last year, are open now.
Sporting have some issues on the other side of the ball as well, especially with Feilhaber very doubtful for this one. He's been their leading chance creator and tempo-setter this year and gives Sporting a better chance to simply outscore teams.
They'll still get their looks because Dom Dwyerhas been an absolute beast and Graham Zusi can still do THIS, but this feels like a really, really steep hill to climb.
Tactical Outlook: 4-3-3 with an added d-mid to sit deep and protect the backline
X-factor: Toni Dovale cutting in from the right wing could trouble New York's overlapping left back, Roy Miller. A lot.
One more reason to watch: You'll miss Henry's goals, right? That's cool. I'll miss his passing:
