The group stage of the 2014-15 CONCACAF Champions League wraps up this week, and MLS teams could potentially claim three of the top four seeds in the tournament's quarterfinal stage if results go their way. (Mathematically, they could claim all four, but it would take an improbable combination of results.)
In all, five MLS teams are in CCL action this week, including the intra-MLS New York Red Bulls vs. Montreal Impact clash, with varying stakes for each team. Below, we break down what those stakes are, and the potential scenarios that could unfold over the course of the next few days.
Information on tiebreaking procedures can be found in Article 2.3.1 of the 2014-15 CONCACAF Champions League Regulations.
D.C. UNITED (at Tauro FC, Tuesday, 8 pm ET, Fox Soccer Plus)
What's At Stake: Nothing, as far a spot in the next round is concerned – D.C. are through and Tauro are eliminated. However, seeding for the quarterfinals can be vitally important, and a win would guarantee a top-four seed and the chance to host the second leg of the quarterfinals at home.
Best-Case Scenario: United are the same team we saw forge a hard-fought win in Jamaica and they beat Tauro by more than a goal to claim the No. 3-4 seed in the CCL quarterfinal draw.
Worst-Case Scenario: D.C. struggle to find their footing in Panama. A losing result would not be helpful seeding-wise, and a heavy loss on the road might bring into question their ability to handle adverse circumstances playing in Central America down the road.
PORTLAND TIMBERS (at CD Olimpia, Tuesday, 10 pm ET, Fox Soccer Plus)
What's At Stake: Portland have put up some of the best numbers of any team in the CCL so far, but are still not guaranteed a place in the quarterfinals. A win or draw would do it, but it will have to come in their hardest game yet in Group 5.
An Olimpia win would put the teams level on points and the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, with the Timbers having won 4-2 in Portland. If Olimpia win by one goal or Portland score at least two goals in a two-goal loss, they would be through. Any other margin of victory for Olimpia would send them through.
Best-Case Scenario: Portland win and take the top seed in the CCL quarterfinals. There are four teams remaining who can finish with 12 points: the Timbers, D.C., Sporting Kansas City and Mexico's Pachuca. Of those, Portland and Pachuca stand out with comfortably higher goal differentials of +11 and +10, respectively, making them prime contenders for the No. 1 seed in next year's knockout phase.
Worst-Case Scenario: An easy one: if, after so much initial success, Portland fall here in the CCL. They would have to lose by multiple goals, a result that wouldn't sit well ahead of a likely must-win MLS finale.
NEW YORK RED BULLS vs. MONTREAL IMPACT (Wednesday, 8 pm ET, Fox Sports 2)
What's At Stake: For New York, pride and bragging rights. After a sobering showing over the weekend vs. Columbus, the Red Bulls could gain a spark from this one. Montreal are already through and, like D.C. and Portland, will be looking for that top-4 seed, but unlike those teams, they have no MLS Cup Playoff concerns and can focus entirely on this matchup.
Best-Case Scenario: For Montreal, they play their starters and win comfortably against a New York team putting all its focus into the playoffs. For New York, the combination of youngsters and reserves puts in a strong showing regardless of result, with an upset win a bonus ahead of this weekend's season finale.
- Get the latest Impact headlines at ImpactMontreal.com
Worst-Case Scenario: The Impact's starters are upset by New York, damaging Montreal's seeding and putting a sour tinge on one of the high points of a mostly forgettable season. For New York, the team is blown out, further damaging morale heading into the playoffs.
SPORTING KANSAS CITY (at Deportivo Saprissa, Thursday, 10 pm ET, Fox Soccer Plus)
What's At Stake: Sporting are in a similar scenario to Portland, needing a win, draw or one-goal loss in Costa Rica to be certain of advancing after beating Saprissa 3-1 at home. A pair of goals from Sporting in a two-goal Saprissa win would also be good enough, but a 2-0 Saprissa win would oust them.
An interesting note here: a 3-1 Saprissa win would result in a drawing of lots to determine advancement from the group. This result would put them dead even on head-to-head record, and every other tiebreaker – both Sporting and Saprissa beat the third team in Group 2, Real Esteli, 3-0 at home, and drew 1-1 in their games in Nicaragua.
Best-Case Scenario: Again, pretty easy: a Sporting win by any margin and a top-four seed. A draw may not get them the latter, but it would still be a very respectable result on the road against arguably the best CONCACAF side outside of MLS or Liga MX.
Worst-Case Scenario: Sporting are eliminated, further cementing their end-of-season struggles and putting them in a precarious position form-wise ahead of the playoffs.
Scenarios for other CCL groups:
- Group 1: Pachuca have already advanced.
- Group 6: Alajuelense can advance with a win or draw on Tuesday vs. Cruz Azul. Cruz Azul can advance with a win at Alajuelense.
- Group 7: Herediano have already advanced.
- Group 8: Club America can advance with a win, or a 0-0 or 1-1 draw on Tuesday vs. Comunicaciones. Comunicaciones can advance with a win or draw by a score of 2-2 or higher at Club America.
